[미국 대선 D-1년①] Trump judicial risk variables
Major issues in the economy and the Middle East, including high inflation rates
As the U.S. presidential election approaches a year later, enthusiasm is gradually increasing. The US presidential election begins in earnest with the primary election in early January next year.
Elections in the United States are divided into caucuses (party conventions) in which party members select candidates for each state, and primaries (primary elections) in which general voters can participate.
The Republican Party will hold its first caucus in Iowa on January 15th next year.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party will hold its first primary in South Carolina on February 3rd. The Democratic Party traditionally began its primaries with the Iowa caucuses, but the Democratic National Committee (DNC) changed the schedule in February. President Biden lost the Iowa caucus during the 2020 Democratic primary, but began an upward trend by winning in South Carolina.
◆Outline of candidates from both parties on ‘Super Tuesday’ on March 5th next year
The highlight of the two parties’ primaries will be held on March 5th next year on ‘Super Tuesday’, when the outlines of the presidential candidates can be revealed. On this day, primaries will be held simultaneously in about 10 states, including California, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Massachusetts, and Minnesota.
Once the primary is concluded in June, the Republican Party will hold a national convention on July 15-18 and the Democratic Party will hold a national convention on August 19-22 to confirm their presidential candidate.
The US presidential election will be held on November 5th next year according to the rule of ‘Tuesday of the week that falls on the first Monday of November’.
The US presidential election is likely to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
President Biden, the oldest person ever, turns 80 this year and will finish his second term at 86 if he is re-elected. Former President Trump will run for re-election in the 2024 presidential election. The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution limits the president’s term of office to two terms. However, this rule does not apply to former President Trump because he lost his bid for re-election during his last presidential election.
◆Republican 1st class double structure… Nikki Haley threatens DeSantis with her rise
The structure of the U.S. Republican presidential nomination primary is a one-way, two-way structure. Former Vice President Mike Pence and conservative radio host Larry Elder have withdrawn their candidacy, while former President Trump is leading in various opinion polls.
In a poll conducted by NBC News, Des Moines Register, and Mediacom on 404 voters likely to participate in the Iowa Republican caucuses and released on the 30th of last month, former President Trump received 43% support. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley tied for second place with 16% each.
With former Ambassador Haley’s recent performance, Governor DeSantis’ second place position is also under threat. Governor DeSantis was once considered a strong rival to former President Trump, but he is struggling as his approval rating continues to decline.
Although Governor DeSantis is still ahead in national opinion polls, former Ambassador Haley has shown an upward trend in state opinion polls.
In a poll of South Carolina’s Republican-leaning voters released by Winthrop University in early October, Haley ranked second with an approval rating of 17%, behind Trump (51%).
A USA Today, Boston Globe, and Suffolk University survey of New Hampshire Republican primary voters found that Trump led with 49%, followed by Haley (19%) and DeSantis (10%).
◆Trump judicial risk
For former President Trump, the risk factor is judicial risk.
Currently, four criminal cases are in progress against former President Trump. In addition to the charge of exerting pressure to overturn the Georgia election results, former President Trump was indicted four times on suspicion of silencing sexual relations, unauthorized leak of state secret documents, and plotting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. He has always maintained his innocence to the charges.
During the party’s primary, he had the effect of rallying his support base every time he was indicted, but the main election may be different. The fact that Trump’s trial is scheduled for next year, when the presidential race begins in earnest, is a variable. Additionally, if new charges are revealed during the trial, there is a possibility that moderates and independents who hold the voting votes in the election will turn against Trump.
◆Economic and Middle East conflicts are variables
The economy is expected to be the biggest issue in the 2024 US presidential election.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant economic impact, which is likely to continue into 2024, an election year. In 2021, prices began to rise steeply in the United States due to the coronavirus pandemic and supply chain crisis, and this trend was solidified by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In recent public opinion polls, the approval rating for Biden’s economic policies remains in the 30% range.
Since the inauguration of the Biden administration, economic indicators have not been bad. The U.S. third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate announced on the 26th of last month was recorded at an annual rate of 4.9%, exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate also remained at the 3% level for a considerable period of time. President Biden is working hard to promote Buynomics using these statistics.
The problem is how you feel about the game.
The U.S. consumer price inflation rate (CPI) peaked at 9.1% in June last year and then fell to 3.7% in September, but Americans are not feeling this trend as it has already risen steeply.
Americans are especially sensitive to oil prices. International oil prices, which had been showing signs of calm since last September, are facing growing uncertainty as the Israel-Hamas conflict intensifies. If Iran intervenes in the Israel-Hamas war and the conflict spreads, it could cast a dark cloud over the U.S. economy.
If the U.S. economy becomes difficult, the possibility of Trump coming back to power increases. It is currently unlikely that the United States will directly intervene in the Israel-Hamas war, but if the situation worsens, public opinion is likely to place responsibility for the economic fallout on the current government.
In a survey of 5,023 voters in 7 battleground states between the 5th and 10th of last month conducted by the polling company Morning Consult and Bloomberg News, when asked ‘Who do you think will do better on the overall economy?’ Trump (49%) He received a higher score than Biden (35%).
British columnist Simon Tisdall said, “If the Middle East conflict causes more civilian casualties and regional instability grows, the United States could fall into a deep quagmire,” adding, “Prime Minister (Benyamin) Netanyahu may be able to bring down Biden, who is fighting for political survival.” “There is,” he said.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.