On the 5th (local time), exactly one year before the U.S. presidential election, a public opinion poll showed that former President Donald Trump defeated President Joe Biden in five of the six most competitive states.
The New York Times (NYT), together with Siena University, announced on this day the results of a public opinion poll conducted on registered voters in six battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, from the 22nd of last month to the 3rd of this month.
When asked, ‘Who will you support in a confrontation between former President Trump and President Biden?’, 48% of respondents answered that they would vote for former President Trump, and 44% answered that they would vote for President Biden.
By region, President Biden lost to former President Trump in five states except Wisconsin.
Former President Trump led President Biden 52% to 41% in Nevada, 49% to 43% in Georgia, 49% to 44% in Arizona, 48% to 43% in Michigan, and 48% to 44% in Pennsylvania.
Only in Wisconsin did President Biden beat former President Trump by 47% to 45%.
The six battleground states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, California, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, are battleground states that former President Trump won in the 2016 presidential election and that President Biden recaptured in the 2020 presidential election. At the time, this region had a great influence on President Biden’s victory.
In a national opinion poll jointly conducted by CBS Broadcasting and YouGov, President Biden was behind President Trump by 48% to 51%.
◇Trump’s triumphant side “Make America great again”… Biden: “It will be different in a year”
Former President Trump’s campaign welcomed the results of this poll and said, “The real final result is that one year from today, the American people will fire dishonest Joe Biden and hire former President Trump to make America great again.” “He made a statement.
On the other hand, President Biden’s campaign refuted, “Predictions made more than a year ago tend to look a little different a year later.” He also mentioned that former President Barack Obama struggled in public opinion polls a year before the 2012 presidential election. At the time, a Gallup poll showed that former President Obama would fall behind his rival, Republican candidate Mitt Romney, by 8 percentage points.
Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Muñoz said, “We have a winning election agenda against the unpopular MAGA (Make America Great Again) extremism in the Republican Party. “We are working to reach a diverse range of voters throughout the year,” he said.
He was confident, “We will win in 2024 by keeping our heads down and doing our job, rather than gloating over the results of public opinion polls.”
◇House rabbits are leaving… The Democratic Party is keenly aware
Reuters analyzed that the multiracial and young generation coalition that has generally supported President Biden is weakening.
Among voters under 30, President Biden was ahead by only 1 percentage point, and among Hispanic voters, the gap with former President Trump decreased to single digits.
In addition, former President Trump’s approval rating among black voters, who are President Biden’s core support base, is 22%, and the NYT reported that this is a record approval rating not seen among Republican candidates in decades.
The Democratic Party is paying close attention.
David Axelrod, former President Obama’s campaign strategist, said on Social Media X (formerly Twitter), “The results of this poll raise legitimate concerns.”
He said, “If President Biden runs again, he will be the Democratic candidate, but he must decide whether it will benefit himself or the country.”
Democratic Senator Richard Blumentall said in a CNN interview, “I had great concerns before the election and I have great concerns now,” and added, “We will do our best.”
The biggest problem facing President Biden currently was the ‘economy’. Respondents to a joint ABC News and Ipsos poll said rising prices were their most important concern. Of these, 35% said Republicans would do a better job and 21% said Democrats would respond better to the issue.
Regarding the immigration issue, the percentage of people supporting former President Trump was higher. However, the NYT reported that President Biden is more trusted when it comes to the abortion issue.
Age was also an obstacle. Although the age difference between the two candidates is only 4 years, 70% of respondents in the NYT survey responded, “President Biden is too old to be president.” In the same question about former President Trump, only 19% cited age as an issue.
Meanwhile, the public opinion polls released this time were conducted in late October and early November, and all reflect public opinion after the war waged in the Gaza Strip by Israel and the Palestinian armed political faction Hamas. Currently, thousands of protesters across the United States are strongly condemning President Biden for siding with Israel.
In the NYT poll, respondents preferred former President Trump by 11 percentage points more than President Biden on the issue of the war between Israel and Hamas. On the other hand, in the ABC poll, respondents were 7 percentage points more likely to support the Democratic Party’s response.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.