Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to run again in the presidential election next March. If President Putin runs for president next year and is elected, his term will be extended until 2030.
President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year and recent military cooperation with North Korea have caused quite a stir in the international community. For this reason, experts predict that if he runs in the next presidential election, the so-called ‘new Cold War’ structure with Western countries such as the United States will further intensify, and tensions in the region, including the Korean Peninsula, will continue.
According to the Russian Kremlin on the 6th (local time), President Putin has not yet “officially” commented on whether he will run for next year’s presidential election. However, Reuters, citing multiple sources, reported that “President Putin has already made up his mind to run for president again.”
Currently, the public approval rating in Russia for President Putin’s performance of state affairs continues to hover around 80% despite the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the general opinion at home and abroad is that if he runs again in the presidential election next year, he will be ‘certainly elected.’
Former Ambassador to Russia Wi Sang-rak also predicted, “President Putin will run for president again,” and “there is a high possibility that he will be elected.”
The Russian presidential term was initially four years, but was extended to six years through constitutional amendments in 2008. If President Putin runs in next year’s presidential election and is elected, he will be in power for the fifth time, following 2000-4, 2004-8, 2012-18, and 2018-24.
In particular, the Russian Constitution, revised in 2020, limits the presidential term to two years, but includes a proviso that this applies from the next president. In other words, if President Putin is elected in next year’s presidential election, it is theoretically possible for him to remain in power for up to 12 more years.
Russia has traditionally been at odds with Western countries, including the United States and major European countries, but the conflict has grown further since the start of its invasion of Ukraine in February last year. In particular, Russia appears to be focusing on strengthening relations with China and North Korea, which have been in conflict with the United States for their own reasons.
Experts in this regard believe that “if President Putin continues in power in a situation where it is unclear when the war in Ukraine will end, tensions surrounding the Korean Peninsula will continue.”
There has been constant speculation in the international community that Russia has been in contact with North Korea to obtain ammunition and weapons needed for the war in Ukraine, and in particular, there has been ongoing evidence that actual arms trade is taking place around the Russia-North Korea summit this September. It is happening.
Former Ambassador Wi said, “(If President Putin returns to power next year), the situation will continue to be good for North Korea to develop and operate nuclear weapons and missiles,” and added, “We will also continue to pursue cooperation with China and North Korea.” did.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, said, “As Russia and North Korea have strengthened cooperation since the Ukraine War, it is having a direct impact on South Korea. Unless there is a drastic change, we will have to consider President Putin’s re-election next year.”
Since last year, when Russia, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, resumed North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launches for the first time in five years, Russia, along with China, another permanent member, has always called for ‘U.S. They have repeatedly put the brakes on it by claiming ‘responsibility’ and ‘sanctions’ futility’. North Korea is assessed to be continuing to advance its nuclear and missile technology using China and Russia as its ‘backbenchers’.
Professor Diman Park said, “If the war in Ukraine is quelled in the way Russia wants, there is a high possibility that North Korea, China and Russia will unite further, but if the war ends in a way that Russia cannot achieve its goals, the existing international order will be restored.” Therefore, there is a possibility that North Korea-China-Russia cooperation will be relatively weakened,” he predicted.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.