Gaza City in the midst of worst street fighting since World War II

More intense than the fight against IS in Mosul, Iraq… International public opinion worsens when large-scale civilian casualties occur.

Mosul is Iraq’s second largest city and is where the worst street fighting of the 21st century took place. In Mosul, which had an area of ​​180㎢ and a population of 2.5 million, from October 16, 2016 to July 20, 2017, coalition forces, including the U.S. and Iraqi forces, fought a battle to defeat the Islamic State (IS), a Sunni Islamic terrorist group. The Iraqi army, which received advanced firepower support from the U.S. military, mobilized 100,000 men and completely surrounded Mosul and battled about 6,000 IS fighters. At that time, many Mosul residents fled after the IS occupation, and 600,000 to 1 million people remained.

The Iraqi army had a very difficult time fighting against IS fighters who used the residents as ‘human shields’ in the maze-like city. The battle, which was initially supposed to end in three months, continued for nine months. About 8,200 Iraqi soldiers were killed, 9,000 to 11,000 civilians were estimated to have died, and about 13,000 buildings were destroyed to the point of being uninhabitable, causing enormous damage.

Palestinian armed groups attend the funeral of those killed in an Israeli military raid on October 29. [뉴시스]

There are predictions that if the Israeli military enters Gaza City and engages in combat with members of the Palestinian armed faction Hamas, it will be the worst urban battle since World War II, surpassing the Battle of Mosul. Gaza City’s vast underground tunnels, complex urban structure, and population density so high that it is impossible to distinguish between Hamas members and civilians are factors that can turn Gaza City into the ‘Devil’s Playground.’ Above all, civilian casualties are expected to be enormous.

The Israeli military’s position is that civilian casualties are inevitable due to the nature of urban warfare, but it is clear that international public opinion will worsen as civilian casualties increase. The British current affairs weekly ‘The Economist’ also predicted, “The Israeli army’s street fighting in Gaza City will cause much greater civilian casualties compared to the battle in Mosul.”

It is estimated that there are 650,000 civilians (2.35 million in the entire Gaza Strip) who have been living in Gaza City since before the Israel-Hamas war. Israel has repeatedly urged Palestinian civilians to move to the southern region, but it appears that at least 200,000 to 400,000 residents currently remain in Gaza City. They are taking refuge in UN-run hospitals and schools despite repeated warnings from Israel. There are 10 hospitals in the northern Gaza Strip, including Gaza City, where about 117,000 residents are taking shelter. The United Nations estimates that about 50,000 of these people are concentrated in Al-Shifa Hospital and 14,000 in Al-Quds Hospital.

The Israeli military defined hospitals in Gaza City as operational areas, claiming that the Hamas command and control center was located in the basement of Al-Shifa Hospital. If a street fight breaks out, not only critically ill patients on life support devices in hospitals but also residents evacuating can become victims. In this case, hospitals in the Ghazi district are expected to become the stage for the most intense urban warfare.

Major General Daniel Hagari, the Israeli military’s chief spokesman, said, “Hamas tunnels lead directly to Al-Shifa Hospital,” and added, “There is concrete evidence that hundreds of terrorists flocked to Al-Shifa Hospital after Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.” insisted. Director Hagari also pointed out that “other hospitals are also being used by Hamas fighters as hideouts.”

On November 6, the Israeli military released a photo showing Hamas’ multiple artillery fire in the Gaza Strip. [뉴시스]

Israeli Army Reserve Major General Yaacov Amidr also said, “It is unlikely that the Israeli military will directly bomb hospitals,” but added, “It is highly likely that they will try to pressure Hamas out by sending ground troops into the hospitals or blockading the surrounding area.” predicted. “Based on the testimony of the arrested Hamas members and the reports of Israeli intelligence agents who visited the site, there is reason to believe that Hamas has been operating in the basement of Al-Shifa Hospital,” said Reserve Major General Amidror.

Michael Knight, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), pointed out, “The tactic of digging large tunnels under hospitals is a tactic used by various armed groups, including the Lebanese armed political faction Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and IS.” On the other hand, Hamas countered, saying, “The places that the Israeli military pointed out as Hamas’ underground facilities are all places where reception areas, emergency rooms, intensive care units, operating rooms, kindergartens, etc. are located,” adding, “These facilities are crowded with patients, medical staff, and refugees.” . Attacking hospitals is considered a ‘war crime’ under the Geneva Convention, which is a general principle of international humanitarian law. However, an exception is made when the hospital is used for military purposes.

Local relief organizations say that the current hospital situation in the Gaza Strip is reminiscent of hell. “The smell of death and blood is everywhere,” said Raza Musleh, an aid worker working at Al Shifa Hospital. “It is literally a miserable situation.” As the morgue freezer stopped working due to lack of fuel, the influx of bodies was left lined up outside the hospital. Doctors Without Borders and local medical staff reported that due to an acute shortage of medicines, medical staff are performing surgeries and treatments without anesthetics or painkillers, and some mothers are undergoing caesarean sections without anesthesia.

From Israel’s perspective, it is clear that the street fighting in Gaza City will be a war of attrition rather than a war of maneuver. There is no large land in Gaza City where the Israeli military can conduct mobile warfare using large-scale tanks. The Israeli army is optimized for maneuver in the plains, so it is bound to have difficulties in urban warfare. On the other hand, it is advantageous for Hamas to fight in Gaza City. Hamas members are expected to use unique guerrilla tactics, such as hiding in Gaza City’s urban infrastructure and launching surprise attacks on Israeli troops.

On October 11, the Gaza Strip was subjected to an airstrike by the Israeli military. [뉴시스]

There are predictions that the Israeli army’s street battle in Gaza City will be much more difficult than the Iraqi army’s battle in Mosul. Even though there are few high-rise buildings in Mosul and IS had only been preparing for battle for two years, the Iraqi army had a hard time eradicating IS. On the other hand, in Gaza City, there are about 60 buildings with six stories or more, and there is also a tunnel with a total length of 500 km that Hamas has been preparing for 15 years. In particular, Hamas has been preparing for urban warfare by stockpiling various weapons and food throughout the building.

In urban warfare, the power of tank artillery and precision bombs from fighter jets is bound to decline. Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, pointed out, “It takes a significant amount of time to fight an enemy that defends itself within a city, especially one that has had time to build good defenses and is not willing to give up easily.”

Hamas is estimated to have five to eight times more troops than IS, which has taken over Mosul. In addition, Hamas members were born and raised here, so they know the city’s geography well and are connected to the residents by blood or religion. In Mosul, residents who disliked IS members, most of whom were from overseas, directly provided information to the Iraqi military, and they were able to attack IS based on this information. On the other hand, Hamas is receiving active support from Gaza City residents. As Gaza City residents hand over information about the Israeli military to Hamas, they are expected to gain an information advantage.

The Israeli army is much better trained than the Iraqi army and is well prepared for operations, including having a special engineer unit to respond to underground tunnels. But Hamas is much more powerful than IS. The Israeli military is unable to determine exactly what military facilities Hamas has hidden throughout the city. We cannot rule out the possibility that there is a rocket factory under the school or that weapons are stored in the mosque. During the Mosul battle, IS buried various explosives in various places, including installing booby traps on apartment doors and gravel. In Gaza City, there is a high probability that Hamas installed explosives in the remains of collapsed buildings and at building entrances, and they may also block roads with large, heavy objects such as refrigerators to impede the advance of armored vehicles and tanks.

Amos Fox, a professor at Reading University in the UK and an expert on urban warfare, pointed out, “The street fighting in Gaza City will be fiercer than any battle we have seen in the past few years.” Lt. Col. Thomas Arnold, a Middle East urban warfare expert and U.S. Army strategist, also said, “It would be the worst. “Everything is much more difficult,” he said, emphasizing that “cities more than offset the superiority in firepower and troops.” “If Israel collapses Hamas and destroys its military as it wants, the entire Gaza City will become like Mosul,” said Michael Horowitz, an intelligence analyst at Lebeq International Risk Management Consulting in Bahrain. “This means enormous civilian casualties and damage.” .

Historically, in urban warfare, the defending side had a much better advantage than the attacking side. A representative example is Mariupol when Russia invaded Ukraine. At the time, thousands of Ukrainian soldiers endured a three-month siege against a Russian army eight times larger in size. As street fighting continues, casualties increase exponentially. As Hamas and Israel are waging a propaganda war against the international community, if large-scale civilian casualties occur in urban warfare, international public opinion toward Israel will inevitably worsen.

《This article
Weekly Donga No. 1414
It was published in》

Jang-Hoon Lee, international affairs analyst [email protected]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.