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Biden-Xi Jinping likely promise to limit AI weapons development… The U.S. sticks to its ‘de-risking’ strategy

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There is a possibility that U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will agree to establish international standards to regulate weapons equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) at the summit scheduled to be held in San Francisco on the 15th (local time). This is known to be large. Expectations are growing that the two countries will reach their first arms control agreement on ‘Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS)’, which is considered a ‘game changer’ that will change the face of future wars. Expectations are also high that China will lift sanctions on American Boeing aircraft, which it has restricted since 2019 due to various crashes.

However, differences in perspectives between the two countries regarding economic security and Taiwan still remain. Using this summit as an opportunity, the United States is making it clear that it will stick to its ‘de-risking’ strategy, including easing dependence on China in key industries, even if it eases tensions between the two countries. China is also hoping that President Biden will make a public promise that he will “not support Taiwanese independence” ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in January next year.

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● US and Chinese leaders discuss AI disarmament for the first time

Citing multiple sources, Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on the 11th that President Biden and President Xi are planning to make a promise to ban the use of AI in autonomous weapons such as drones and the control and deployment of nuclear warheads. local time) reported.

So far, Western countries, including the United States, have emphasized the need to regulate weapons equipped with AI. There is concern that if AI is allowed to make its own judgment and issue attack orders, the risk that accidental clashes that occur in disputed areas where the two countries are in fierce conflict, such as the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, could escalate into an all-out war.

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In particular, there are strong concerns that allowing unrestricted installation of AI on nuclear weapons could increase the risk of nuclear war. The 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, in which a former Soviet submarine misjudged the movements of a U.S. warship and attempted to launch a nuclear torpedo, but was barely aborted just before launch. In 1984, the Soviet Union attempted to respond with nuclear retaliation to a U.S. nuclear missile launch due to a radar malfunction, but aborted it. The purpose is to prevent similar moments of crisis.

The United States is also emphasizing its intention to resume communication in the military field between the two countries. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on CBS on the 12th, “It is necessary to restore communication to ensure that there are no mistakes or misjudgments up to the tactical and operational level,” and emphasized the urgent need to resume communication between the U.S. and Chinese defense ministers, which had been suspended after the conflict between the two countries. .

● China is interested in lifting Boeing regulations

Bloomberg reported on the 13th that China is also considering lifting sanctions on the Boeing 737 Max aircraft through this meeting.

In the past, Boeing decided to sell 140 ‘737 Max’ aircraft to major Chinese airlines. China has banned the operation and delivery of this type of aircraft since 2019 as crashes of this type of aircraft continued to occur in various countries and the conflict between the two countries intensified. The reason that China, which has already lifted restrictions on the import of American soybeans, is seeking to resume deliveries of Boeing aircraft is interpreted as the expectation that if this measure is implemented, the United States will also not introduce high tariffs on China, which are currently being considered.

However, on the 12th, the Washington Post (WP) reported that President Xi had planned to meet with American businessmen before the meeting with President Biden, but the White House opposed it, so it was postponed until after the meeting. Accordingly, President Xi also commented that he is trying to obtain assurance from President Biden that the United States will not impose new export restrictions against China, including semiconductors.

Additionally, President Xi is known to be demanding a public promise from the United States that it “does not support Taiwan unification” ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election in January next year. The United States is also making it clear that China should not intervene in the U.S. presidential election in November of the same year.

The two countries are also discussing the launch of a bilateral working group to prevent Chinese raw materials for the ‘zombie drug’ fentanyl from flowing into the United States. Measures to deal with the war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas and the war in Ukraine are also expected to be on the agenda.

US-China conflict

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Source: Donga

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