‘Customized deterrence strategy’ revised for the first time in 10 years
Joint planning-execution step-by-step guidelines established
The Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS) established by South Korea and the United States to jointly respond to North Korea’s nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) was revised for the first time in 10 years. It is known that the revised North Korean nuclear deterrence strategy includes detailed plans for utilizing the extended deterrence (nuclear umbrella) of the U.S. military’s three major nuclear forces, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), strategic bombers, and nuclear-powered strategic submarines. A senior official of the Ministry of National Defense said, “It contains new measures, such as guidelines for joint planning and implementation of the deployment of extended deterrence forces by South Korea and the United States.”
Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin held the ROK-US Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Ministry of Defense in Seoul on the 13th and signed the TDS amendment. South Korea and the United States said in a joint SCM statement, “The revised ‘2023 TDS’ includes guidelines for utilizing all categories of U.S. military capabilities, including U.S. nuclear capabilities, along with South Korea’s conventional capabilities, in preparation for North Korea’s nuclear and WMD attacks. “It was reflected,” he said.
TDS, first created in 2013, is the only bilateral strategic document established by the United States with its allies. As it is a level 2 military secret, the contents were not made public. While the existing TDS comprehensively included military response measures by South Korea and the United States in response to situational scenarios such as North Korea’s nuclear threat → imminent use of nuclear weapons → actual use of nuclear weapons, the revised TDS is said to have much more detailed response measures according to each situational scenario.
Separately from the joint statement, South Korea and the United States also adopted and announced the ‘ROK-US Alliance Defense Vision’ for the first time in four years since 2019. The document clearly stated, “North Korea is our most fundamental and urgent threat.”
In line with the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear forces, including tactical nuclear weapons… Used for actual operations beyond demonstrations of force
Austin: “Close consultation on revision of September 19 agreement”
Won-sik Shin: “When provocation occurs, the Kim Jong-un regime disappears.”
Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin signed an amendment to the ‘Tailored Deterrence Strategy (TDS)’ at the ROK-US Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) on the 13th. It states that South Korea and the United States will mobilize all available means to block North Korea’s nuclear threat, which has become more advanced over the past 10 years, including the nuclear triad (strategic bombers, strategic nuclear propulsion submarines, and intercontinental ballistic missiles), the so-called three major nuclear forces, and will punish any nuclear provocation without fail. etc. are key. A military official emphasized, “The amendment will be specified as detailed military guidelines in the future and will be actually applied to joint military training.” Minister Shin said, “If North Korea provokes war, what will disappear is the Kim Jong-un regime, and what will be achieved is unification based on the basic liberal democratic order led by the Republic of Korea.”
Compared to when South Korea and the United States first jointly drafted the TDS in 2013, North Korea’s nuclear capabilities have advanced dramatically. After deploying a variety of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) equipped with tactical nuclear weapons for surprise strikes against South Korea, they also test-fired a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the U.S. mainland. Even a tactical nuclear attack submarine has been launched. The means of nuclear provocation targeting South Korea and the United States have become more diverse, and nuclear surprise scenarios have also evolved.
Accordingly, Korea and the United States agreed to revise TDS at the 2021 SCM, and this time, it was completed in two years. A military official explained, “The TDS’s step-by-step response strategy was reorganized in response to North Korea’s nuclear sophistication aimed at neutralizing the U.S. extended deterrence and launching a nuclear strike against South Korea at the beginning of the war.” The existing TDS step-by-step response measures include deployment of U.S. strategic assets and demonstration of force against North Korea (nuclear threat) → preemptive strike against North Korea and announcement of U.S. nuclear force reinforcement readiness (imminent use of nuclear weapons) → retaliation against North Korea using all means, including nuclear umbrellas (in case of nuclear use). However, this has been made more concrete, and the speed and level of response have been greatly strengthened.
A military source said, “The revised plan more quickly deploys more strategic assets, including the three nuclear axes, to the Korean Peninsula, while also further breaking down the crisis scenarios for each stage of the existing TDS.” This means that in the event of North Korea’s nuclear threat or nuclear provocation, the nuclear triad, including strategic bombers, can be actively utilized in practical integrated operations together with the South Korean military’s conventional forces, beyond the existing ‘demonstration of force’ level. Another source said, “We will prove to North Korea through strengthened joint exercises in the future that the warning from South Korea and the United States that the nuclear triad could wipe North Korea off the map if North Korea uses nuclear weapons against South Korea is not a threat.”
The two ministers also agreed on a plan for the South Korean military to share information on North Korean missiles captured by the U.S. Early Warning Satellite (DSP/SBIRS) in real time. About 10 U.S. early warning satellites deployed in geostationary orbit (about 36,000 km altitude) can immediately detect all missile launches on Earth. It appears that failure to detect North Korean missiles due to low altitude or blind spots can be minimized. A military official said, “The ultimate goal is to ensure that information from the U.S. early warning satellite can be transmitted in real time to our military’s surveillance and interception weapon system.” In addition, South Korea and the United States adopted the ‘ROK-US Alliance Defense Vision’, which identifies North Korea as ‘our most fundamental and urgent threat.’
At a joint press conference immediately after the SCM, Secretary Austin was asked, “Do you think the United States should also revise (the September 19 agreement) to block North Korea’s Hamas-style provocations?” and responded, “(The two countries) agreed to closely discuss how to resolve the issue going forward.” “I did,” he answered. A military official said, “We have decided to maintain close communication in view of North Korea’s threats in the future,” and it is expected that in the event of a serious provocation by North Korea, South Korea will announce a suspension and the United States will support this.
On this day, attendees attracted attention by wearing burgundy-colored (dark wine-colored) ties engraved with the Korean flag and the American flag at all SCM events. This tie, produced and worn at Minister Shin’s suggestion, was named ‘bloody alliance tie’ in the hopes of further solidifying the blood alliance that protected the Republic of Korea by shedding blood during the Korean War.
Military reporter Sang-ho Yoon [email protected]
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.