Two years of war in Ukraine… There are no signs of defeat and the economy is strong.
Putin’s power is strong and diplomatic isolation is fruitless
A long-term strategy against Russia is needed, including accelerating Ukraine’s integration into Europe.
On the 16th (local time), the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published an article titled “It is time to break away from the illusion that Russia will be defeated.” This is an order that the United States and Western leaders should move away from the judgment that the Ukraine war will result in Russia’s defeat in the short term and establish a long-term strategy to deal with Russia.
Co-contributors, including former U.S. Russian intelligence official Eugene Loomer and former Russian diplomat Andrew Weiss, emphasized that Russian President Vladimir Putin has reason to believe that time is on his side.
There are no signs that Russia will lose the war, the economy has not shrunk significantly, Putin’s power is solidified, the Russian people’s support for the war remains, and despite the revolt of Wagner Group head Evgony Prigogine, the Russian elite’s Support for Putin has not weakened.
On the other hand, Western support for Ukraine is cracking and economic sanctions against Russia are opening up holes. Russian military factories are operating actively and producing more artillery shells than Western factories.
While Russian economic officials are demonstrating their ability to boost oil prices by strengthening cooperation with oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Ukraine is having a hard time sustaining itself without massive Western support.
Putin is also enjoying diplomatic success. China and India are supporting the Russian economy by importing large quantities of oil, and Putin believes that it is advantageous for Russia to rely economically on China in the short term, so half of its imports are from China.
Sanctions circumvention through neighboring countries such as Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan also works effectively. Although Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), he has expanded his influence over countries in the “global south.”
Six months after the invasion of Ukraine, Putin prepared a new national security strategy. It is about preparing for a long-term war with the West. This strategy is working.
◆Putin decides that there is no problem in continuing the long-term war
Putin thinks there is no problem in continuing a long-term war. He believes that continuing missile and drone attacks on Ukraine throughout the winter amid waning support for Ukraine from the United States and European countries could force Ukraine to eventually accept ceasefire terms favorable to Russia and win. It will be the icing on the cake if Donald Trump is re-elected in the US presidential election next year.
Putin, who has strengthened the nuclear threat by abolishing the Cold War-era nuclear weapons control system, plans to use any means possible to steer the situation to his advantage. He will use various international issues such as the Gaza war, food shortage, and climate change as a means to advance the war in Ukraine against the West to his advantage.
On the other hand, Western leaders face great difficulties. The United States and its allies have been rushing to provide cutting-edge weapons and real-time battlefield intelligence to prevent Ukraine’s collapse, but now a strategy that can pressure Russia in the long term is needed. It is an illusion to believe that there are short-term means of pressuring Putin to give up the war.
◆Western leaders have never emphasized the prolongation of the confrontation with Russia.
Western leaders have never emphasized to their citizens that the confrontation with Russia could be prolonged. On the contrary, it has been emphasized that sanctions, a successful counterattack by the Ukrainian military, and support of advanced weapons will be able to force Russia to sit at the negotiating table. There were even expectations that Putin might be overthrown in a palace coup.
During the Cold War, the United States never believed that the Soviet Union would collapse easily. Instead, it pursued a policy of strengthening national security and strengthening the military power of its allies while waging long-term wars. George Kennan’s containment policy of “patiently, powerfully, and agilely suppressing Russian expansion” is the basis.
At present, the Russian containment policy continues sanctions, strengthens diplomatic isolation, blocks Russia’s intervention in domestic affairs, strengthens the deterrence and military power of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and increases investment in the military industry by the United States and Europe. It will be something.
This does not mean that the Cold War should be restarted entirely. It is not in America’s national interest to enter into a global competition with Russia. It just becomes a game of whack-a-mole. Putin’s Russia does not have the ideological influence and strong national power that the Soviet Union enjoyed in the past.
Above all, Ukraine is strongly opposing Russia. In just two years, the Ukrainian military has achieved military modernization, something that took decades for the Russian military to achieve. This is why President Biden emphasized in his speech on the 19th of last month that providing arms and ammunition to Ukraine is not charity but the most effective Western strategy.
We must accelerate Ukraine’s integration into Europe so that efforts to rebuild Ukraine can last for generations.
It is essential to maintain solidarity and resolve both in the United States and in Europe. Russia has been adept at driving divisions between Europe and the United States in the past.
◆Ultimately, we must prepare for the post-Putin era.
Ultimately, we must prepare for the situation after Putin steps down. Former President Ronald Reagan was reluctant to admit that Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev was different from previous Soviet leaders. No one can be sure whether Putin’s successor will try to end the war.
The United States and its allies must clarify their long-term strategy toward Russia. Even if the war ends, the conflict between Europe and Russia will not end. If Ukraine prospers as a stable, independent nation, Putin and his successors will be forced to admit that Russia has finally lost. Therefore, they will do their best to prevent Ukraine from achieving stability and prosperity.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.