With the Liberal Democratic Party’s approval rating failing to exceed 30% for five consecutive months, the search for a ‘post-Kishida’ is on fire. From the non-mainstream faction that is distant from the regime to the Aso faction that supports Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the battle for the 2024 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is intensifying.
◇Approval rating plummets due to tax cut policies and personnel changes aimed at defrauding favor
According to a November opinion poll by the Yomiuri Shimbun, the Kishida Cabinet’s approval rating fell by nearly 10 percentage points in just one month. A sense of crisis is growing within the Prime Minister’s Office and the Liberal Democratic Party due to the unusual double-digit plunge.
Citing a close associate of the prime minister, Nippon TV (Nittere) pointed out that the cause of this situation was “tax cuts and personnel management.” The comprehensive economic measures introduced as major policies were criticized as a self-interested tax cut. To make matters worse, following the large-scale cabinet reshuffle last September, three vice-minister-level officials have dropped out of office in the space of three weeks, and we are seeing a déjà vu of last year’s personnel shake-up.
The problem is that there is no bright solution in sight to overcome the current situation. Nittere recently reported that members of the Prime Minister’s Office and the Liberal Democratic Party are unanimous in saying, “We must do what needs to be done properly.” An answer that lacks specificity can also be interpreted to mean, “There are no effective ideas.”
A former cabinet member told Nittere that “there is no card for reviving the government,” and that the Kishida administration is “at a loss.”
Prime Minister Kishida himself is known to have said to those around him, “We have no choice but to show the results (of policies) to escape deflation.” It is thought that approval ratings will return when a 40,000 yen (approximately 350,000 won) tax cut per person is actually implemented in June next year.
In the approval ratings conducted by major daily newspapers in November, the Kishida cabinet’s approval rating was calculated to be between 21 and 25 percent, hitting an all-time low.
Typically, if the cabinet approval rating is less than 30%, it is considered difficult to maintain power. However, former TV Sahi director Toru Tamakawa said, “I think it is still high,” and asked, “If you remember, it was definitely in the single digits during the Mori and Takeshita cabinets.”
Political critic Shiro Tasaki predicted that Prime Minister Kishida will not resign “no matter what difficulties it may be (until June, when the tax cut takes effect).”
◇There are many ‘Wannabe Kishidas’, but there is no real ‘post’.
Due to the shaky approval rating, one former cabinet official predicted, “It would not be surprising if the Kishida River reversal begins within the year,” but in reality, a ‘strange period of stability’ continues, with no specific rivals within the Liberal Democratic Party or opposition parties.
Nittere cited the absence of a successor within the Liberal Democratic Party and the low presence of the opposition party as reasons for not seeing a ‘post-Kishida’. An official from the Constitutional Democratic Party pointed out the limitation, saying, “The low approval rating is the same as at the end of the Aso administration right before the change of government, but the approval rating of the opposition party has not increased.”
Although there are no opponents within the Liberal Democratic Party, there are those who are motivated. For example, former secretary-general Shigeru Ishiba frequently ranks high in opinion polls asking about the ‘prime minister candidate.’ He did not hide his true feelings, saying that Prime Minister Kishida’s state administration was “out of sync with the feelings of the people.”
The person who beat former Secretary General Ishiba to take first place is former Minister of Environment Shinjiro Koizumi. Former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who was pushed out by Kishida two years ago, is taking on the role of a backbencher.
A non-factional lawmaker close to former Prime Minister Suga told the Asahi Shimbun that former Prime Minister Suga, who had experience in power struggles with the popular Koizumi, was using the research council as “an excellent place to make his presence felt.”
Minister of Economy and Security Sanae Takaichi showed off her power by mobilizing 12 Abe faction members through a research meeting on the 15th. Anyone can see that there is criticism within the party about the move with the presidential election in mind, but the person himself does not seem to care, leaving comments such as “I don’t know what is bad or what it means” on social networking services (SNS).
However, it cannot be overlooked that, apart from the movements of the sleepy dragons, the most common response in a public opinion poll asking about the next prime ministerial candidate was “not in this category.”
A member of the House of Councilors lamented, “There is no one who says, ‘This is the person.’” He added, “Ishiba and Koizumi are all candidates with high diplomas. “He is afraid of being broken after first stepping forward (as a candidate),” he said.
A former deputy minister who belongs to the mainstream faction said that if Prime Minister Kishida does not run, “candidates will invade the governorship election, making it easier for the non-mainstream faction to capture the casting vote.” “I want to avoid that kind of thing,” he said.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.