Sidney Seiler, former U.S. Director of National Intelligence for North Korea
“Even if North Korea’s reconnaissance satellite succeeds, it will be at the same level as launching an iPhone.”
“It is still too early to judge” whether Russian technology will be provided
Regarding the government’s suspension of some provisions of the September 19 inter-Korean military agreement in response to North Korea’s launch of a military reconnaissance satellite, Sidney Seiler, former director of North Korea affairs at the National Intelligence Committee (NIC) under the U.S. Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said, “It is a very practical and timely decision.” “It is an appropriate response,” he said.
Former officer-in-charge Seiler said in a phone interview with the Dong-A Ilbo on the 21st (local time), “It is not a simple reflex to stop the entire military agreement, but a proportional response (to North Korea’s actions),” and “Some are concerned about escalating tensions, but “It was North Korea’s actions that escalated the situation,” he pointed out. He also responded to North Korea’s claim of success in launching a reconnaissance satellite, saying, “Putting a satellite into orbit and operating a satellite are different issues,” and added, “(North Korea’s reconnaissance capabilities) may not be much better than flying an iPhone over South Korea.” “He said.
Former Director Seiler was in charge of collecting and analyzing information on North Korea for 27 years at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and served as an advisor for Korean Peninsula affairs at the White House National Security Council (NSC) and special envoy for the six-party talks on North Korean nuclear issues at the State Department, and is currently working as a think tank strategist. He is a senior advisor at the Center for International Studies (CSIS). The following is a Q&A.
―North Korea claims to have successfully launched its third military reconnaissance satellite.
“We will soon find out whether it was successful as North Korea claims, but putting a satellite into orbit is different from operating a satellite. Even if a satellite were sent into orbit, it would be difficult for anyone to verify that it was functioning as intended.”
-Some point out that competition between South and North Korea for military reconnaissance satellites is intensifying.
“Some people compare satellite capabilities between North and South Korea, but South Korea and North Korea’s launches are completely different. Compared to the sophistication of South Korean satellites, North Korea’s (satellite) payloads will certainly be unimpressive. However, it is clear that North Korea appears to be improving little by little compared to previous launches.”
-There are concerns that security threats could increase significantly with the launch of a reconnaissance satellite.
“Reconnaissance satellites will be helpful to North Korea, but it is not a dramatic development that will exponentially increase the threat from North Korea. However, reconnaissance satellites are clearly an advance (for North Korea), a nuisance (for South Korea and the United States), and a violation of UN Security Council resolutions (internationally). In particular, North Korea is no longer trying to disguise it as a peaceful space program, but is taking a more dangerous approach by packaging it as a military reconnaissance satellite to improve nuclear deterrence.”
-The South Korean government decided to partially suspend the effect of the September 19 military agreement.
“I think it is a very practical move. It appears to be a proportional response (to North Korea’s actions) rather than a simple reflex action to halt the entire military agreement. “I think it is a very thorough and timely response in that Minister of National Defense (Shin Won-sik) has repeatedly stated the need for Korea to be prepared to prevent attacks such as those by (Palestinian armed group) Hamas.”
-The United States has not yet publicly supported the suspension of the September 19 military agreement.
“This may be because the September 19 military agreement was an agreement between North and South Korea. However, the September 19 Military Agreement is an issue that clearly affects the ROK-US alliance as not only the Korean military but also the Combined Forces Command has been subject to the same restrictions. Therefore, I am sure that there were close discussions between Korea and the United States. I have seen those who do not fully understand North Korea or the September 19 military agreement worry that (such a measure) could increase tensions, but it is North Korea’s actions that are increasing tensions. Regardless of the military agreement, North Korea decided a long time ago to blatantly violate the agreement.”
View largerA launch vehicle carrying a North Korean military reconnaissance satellite is launched on the night of the 21st. North Korea claimed on the 22nd that the launch was successful. Photo = Korean Central News Agency
―Do you think there was Russian technical support for this launch?
“It is a very important issue. Considering that Russian President Vladimir Putin invited North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un to the space base, there are clearly grounds for concern (about Russia’s technological support). However, there is a significant possibility that Russia did not provide any help at all. However, even if Russia refused to provide satellite or ballistic missile technology, it is not helpful at all to take an attitude that makes Kim Jong-un think that he can get away with blatant violations of UN Security Council resolutions.”
―This launch occurred right after the North Korean nuclear issue was discussed at the U.S.-China summit… .
“China continues to show an indifferent attitude toward North Korea’s actions that undermine peace and stability in Northeast Asia. China refuses to help the United States in reversing North Korea’s nuclear threat, which means that for now, China will endure and live with North Korea, which has nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities. “I have participated in diplomacy with China regarding North Korea as a special envoy for the NSC and the Six Party Talks, but what we are seeing now is China’s consistent unwillingness.”
―There are concerns that South Korea and the United States have limited countermeasures against North Korean provocations.
“Currently, Korea and the United States are in the best possible position. The Washington Declaration, the historic Camp David talks, and the sharing of missile information between Korea, the United States, and Japan have greatly strengthened deterrence. Looking at what North Korea has achieved so far, although it has launched a reconnaissance satellite, it may not be much different from flying an iPhone over the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is clearly a loser in this competition.”
Washington =
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.