[화정평화재 [Exclusive] 안보토론회] North Korea’s satellite launch, Israel-Hamas war and the Korean Peninsula
As the war between Israel and Hamas continues following Ukraine, tensions are also increasing on the Korean Peninsula due to North Korea’s third satellite launch and the cancellation of the September 19 military agreement. On the 28th of last month, the Dong-A Ilbo affiliated Hwajeong Peace Foundation (Chairman Nam Si-wook) held an expert discussion session at the Lotte Hotel in Sogong-dong, Jung-gu, Seoul to analyze the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, which is facing multiple crises, and the meaning of the war between the two countries. Nam Sung-wook, director of the Institute for Unification and Convergence at Korea University, Seong Il-gwang, president of the Korean-Israel Society, and former Ambassador to Iran Song Woong-yeop (visiting professor at Chosun University) attended. Ja-ryong Koo, director of the 21st Century Peace Research Institute at the Hwajeong Peace Foundation, served as moderator.
Director Koo Ja-ryong =
With North Korea’s satellite launch, there was a saying that it had ‘an eye on its nuclear fist.’ How much has the threat level increased?
Director Namseong-wook =
The launch of a military reconnaissance satellite is like adding wings to North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Even if you have a precision strike ballistic missile, it is useless if you cannot accurately recognize the target point. Kim Jong-un needed tweezers tutoring after two failed satellite launches, and Russia, which needed large-scale artillery shells in the Ukraine war, stepped in to provide support like a ‘one-hit instructor’. Why would Putin take Kim Jong-un to the Vostochny Space Center? Reconnaissance satellites have three essential elements: orbital settling, transmission and reception, and ‘sub-meter’ (resolution of 1m or less) photo transmission. Even if North Korea has shortcomings in satellite technology, it is only a matter of time before they are overcome.
President Seong Il-gwang =
Relations between Russia and Israel have become strained due to Hamas’s surprise attack, but Israel’s high level of scientific technology is due to the fact that many Jewish scientists came from Russia after the collapse of the former Soviet Union. Relations between the two countries are also good. That is why Russia does not significantly intervene in Israel’s military operations in Lebanon and Syria.
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After North Korea’s satellite launch, North Korea effectively abrogated the September 19 military agreement, South Korea responded by suspending some of its effectiveness, and there are concerns about localized armed conflict due to the rearmament of guard posts (GPs) along the cease-fire line.
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The September 19 military agreement was reached to implement the April 27 Panmunjom Declaration for denuclearization. However, due to lack of progress in denuclearization, the justification for the September 19 agreement has declined significantly. As with the Strategic Arms Limitation Agreement (SALT) between the Soviet Union and the Soviet Union during the Cold War, verification of military agreements is essential. There is no such device on 9/19. There are limits to relying only on good will. Moreover, there have been hundreds of cases of North Korea violating military agreements. It’s paradoxical, but Kim Jong-un said he would not keep the September 19 military agreement, so the burden was lightened for us. As a democratic country, there was a burden of not keeping the agreement despite North Korea’s obvious violations. However, military tension due to the heavy armament of the GP is inevitable.
Former Ambassador Song Woong-yeop =
A complex crisis is literally approaching. When tensions escalate and escalate into war, an important factor is the mediator. It seems that no such force or entity is visible on the Korean Peninsula.
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Qatar, a small country between Saudi Arabia and Iran, is making good use of its geopolitical location. Even when Hamas had a brief rift with Iran, it built trust by providing financial support and safe houses for key figures. There is also an American air force base. The United States also participated in negotiations when the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, which had been retaken by the Taliban. Although the United States does not like Qatar, it seems to be taking advantage of Qatar’s mediation activities because it needs a dialogue channel through which it can communicate with Hamas at critical moments.
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Some expect China to play a role as a mediator in the North Korean nuclear crisis.
M=
Former President Park Geun-hye climbed the Tiananmen Tower on the 70th anniversary of Victory Day in 2015, raising expectations for her role as a mediator with China. But that evening, a Chinese scholar sent me a paper saying that China would never give up on North Korea. It talks about China’s mediating role in the 30 years of North Korean nuclear weapons, but it does not fit the context of international politics. Unlike the Middle East, which is multipolar with multiple powers coexisting, Northeast Asia is a system buried in the four powers. Since there are only four main players from four countries, it is difficult for anyone to arbitrate.
Song =
Qatar’s mediation role originated from the outstanding leadership of its predecessor, King Hamad. By laying the foundation for an economic leap forward by developing the northern gas field shared with Iran, and by implementing active reform and openness policies, Qatar has emerged as one of the richest countries in the Middle East. Qatar received a lot of help from the Muslim Brotherhood in the process of establishing the state, and Hamas also has its roots in the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatar’s mediation power can be said to come from its close ties with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Hamas, as well as security guarantees through its acceptance of U.S. air bases.
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There seems to be a similarity between Korea and Israel in that they are conscious of their relationship with Russia.
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Just as Israel opposed sanctions against Russia in the early days of the Ukraine war, it keeps an eye on Russia. The relationship between the two countries is not bad due to cooperation in cutting-edge technology. The personal relationship between Putin and Netanyahu is also good. Iran supports Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon, and Syria’s air defense network is effectively operated by Russia. If Russia makes up its mind, Israeli fighter jets will not be able to operate. That is why Israel cannot provide offensive weapons to Ukraine despite tremendous pressure from the United States. In Israel, there is also a Jewish political party from Russia. Some even say that Israel’s second language is not Arabic but Russian. There are also Russian-language broadcasts and newspapers. Despite pressure from the United States, Israel is holding on in its own way because of its relationship with Russia.
Song =
Close military cooperation between Iran and Russia, especially in the field of drones, is highlighted in the war in Ukraine. There are concerns that Iran’s drones may reach North Korea. However, Iran’s drone technology may have surpassed that of the United States. In December 2011, Iran took control of a state-of-the-art drone (RQ-170 Sentinel, nicknamed the Beast of Kandahar) operated by the United States on the border with Afghanistan through jamming (electromagnetic interference, etc.) and then ‘reverse engineered’ it. The technology was acquired through manufacturing through reassembly and production. There are concerns that Iran’s drone technology may spread to North Korea through collaboration with Russia due to the love triangle between Iran, Russia, and North Korea.
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The problem with this Hamas surprise attack is Israel’s intelligence failure rather than the surprise attack. The intelligence department posted information, but ‘Hamas does not want war.’ They misjudged and let their guard down by saying, “We will focus more on economic development than on war.”
M=
All wars are surprises. Israel stopped wiretapping Hamas a year ago, and ‘politicization of information’ was also a problem. Even if intelligence agencies issue warnings, the ‘final users’ (top policymakers) of the information ignore them due to prejudice. In that respect, Prime Minister Netanyahu was the most problematic.
Song =
Thanks to Israel’s intelligence failure, the surprise effect for Hamas was greater than expected. Although Hamas suffered a military blow, one would think that it demonstrated its will to exist by making its cause known to the international community through terrorist attacks.
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It is a rare sight to see a temporary ‘humanitarian ceasefire’ between Israel and Hamas with the release of hostages and prisoners.
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Because the need for each other is great. There were strong demands from the United States, but what would be the point of winning the war if Israel could not release 240 hostages? Hamas needed to straighten its lines. In 2011, Corporal Gilad Shalit was released after being imprisoned for five years, and Israel has released more than 1,000 people. At that time, Yehya Sinwar, who commanded this terrorist attack, was also released after being imprisoned for 22 years. He is a person who knows better than anyone else the utility of Israeli hostages.
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There is analysis that depending on the outcome of the Lee-Ha war, next year’s U.S. presidential election could also be affected. There is also a view that this could be a factor in increasing support for Trump.
Song =
The US presidential election is about a year away. The war is ongoing, but once it is over, it will be difficult for Netanyahu, who is close to Trump, to maintain his position as prime minister. Israel won the fourth Middle East war, but the government changed, taking responsibility for the initial failure. An international conference could be held to address the Palestinian issue, like the Madrid Conference held in 1991 immediately after the First Gulf War. If a reasonable peace plan is reached through this, it will help Biden’s re-election.
M=
Diplomacy is the president’s domain. There is about a year left until the US presidential election. A turnaround can be achieved through diplomacy during this period. Nevertheless, we must prepare for the results of the U.S. presidential election by creating two scenarios to determine which of the Democratic and Republican candidates will be elected. It is said that 400 experts participated and presented the first report on diplomacy, security, and national defense to Trump. We must closely examine items that affect the Korean Peninsula, such as a significant increase in defense spending. When the regime changes, there are bound to be many changes in the ‘Washington Declaration’ with the Biden administration. Some say that Japan has already entered the lobby.
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During the Korean War, Korea gave up operational control and had no voice during the armistice negotiations. This is different from Israel saying what it wants to say to the United States.
M=
Security means ‘self-reliance and self-reliance’. The Korea-US Mutual Defense Treaty was possible because of former President Syngman Rhee’s personal skills. Syngman Rhee’s doctorate at Princeton University at the time was, in today’s terms, a personal achievement similar to studying in space. Therefore, Syngman Rhee could not be dismissed through the ‘Everready Plan’ just because he opposed the ceasefire. Looking at the power of the Jewish network and the Zionist war, we must remember that patriotism and the will to develop ourselves protect our security. However, it is unfortunate that domestic politics is polarized and we cannot speak with one voice.
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Does this mean that the factor that undermines self-development is polarization or domestic division?
M=
If Ukraine had not united around Zelenskyy in its will to fight, it would have been difficult to endure. The spirit of uniting and resisting Moscow during the great famine in the early 1930s seems to run in their blood. However, there is one thing we have in our self-strength plus alpha, and that is ‘alliance’. There is no country in the world that defends itself independently. However, we must keep in mind that ‘allies are not free.’
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Israel has not signed a mutual defense treaty with the United States, even though its cooperation is absolutely necessary. This is because they do not want to be bound by the treaty. Israel is a representative country that shows that ‘diplomacy is an extension of internal affairs.’ This comes from the enormous power of the Jews. We can only hope that we too will have such capabilities.
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The United States and Israel have different views on the post-war ‘two-state solution’, but Israel will have no choice but to accept the American plan.
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Concerns about an escalation of war or a fifth Middle East war arose initially but then subsided.
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Above all, the area of interest was Hezbollah, and the United States deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Mediterranean, which had a significant deterrent effect. It seems that Iran does not want to waste Hezbollah, which Israel and the United States intend to use when attacking Iran, in an incident like this. Although they say they sympathize with Hamas, neighboring Arab countries are not interested in war. Egypt and Jordan are too busy making a living and are not in a position to go to war with Israel.
Song =
Long ago, Kissinger said about the Middle East issue, ‘There is no war without Egypt, and there is no peace without Syria.’ As he said, Israel and Egypt established diplomatic relations and there was no more war in the Middle East. Peace has not come because Syria and Israel have not yet established diplomatic relations. Iran does not want to escalate the war through direct intervention, and is adjusting the level of indirect intervention using the ‘axis of resistance’ such as Hezbollah. However, there are concerns that Netanyahu, who is cornered, may provoke Hezbollah into escalating the war in order to prolong his political life.
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A North Korean satellite was launched during a surprise attack by Hamas. There is a need to take measures to prevent North Korea’s provocations and escalation of war on the Korean Peninsula.
M=
We are now in a period of ‘system transition’ in international politics. As the power of the United States, the sole superpower, is weakening, voices are growing louder and disputes are breaking out everywhere. Peace on the Korean Peninsula that has lasted for 70 years is bound to be threatened at some point. Nothing is permanent in international politics. We must recognize that this is a time when it is urgent to unify national opinions and cooperate with each other on security, with the idea that war may be approaching.
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Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.