The US Republican Party’s presidential candidate primary, which was dominated by former US President Donald Trump, has entered a new phase thanks to the performance of ‘opponent’ former US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. Former Ambassador Haley is pursuing former President Trump by digging into the votes of centrist voters in New Hampshire, the second primary primary for the Republican Party early next year and where support for the ruling Democratic Party is strong. There is an analysis that former President Trump’s harsh words, which caused recent controversy, such as “If he returns to power, he will be dictatorial on the first day” and “Immigrants pollute the blood of America,” are also working to former Ambassador Haley’s advantage.
Former President Trump is still confident of a landslide victory and is sticking to his strategy of focusing on a ‘rematch’ with President Joe Biden. In fact, a recent poll by Bloomberg and Morning Consult found that third-zone candidates who have declared or are considering running for president are eroding President Biden’s votes more than former President Trump.
According to a public opinion poll released by CBS Broadcasting on the 17th, in the northeastern state of New Hampshire, where the Republican Party’s second primary will be held on January 23 next year, former Ambassador Haley received 29% of support, trailing former President Trump (44%) by 15 percentage points. It stuck. In a survey conducted here by the Washington Post from the 9th to the 14th of last month, former Ambassador Haley (18%) was behind former President Trump (46%) by 28 percentage points. The gap was narrowed significantly in about a month.
In particular, former Ambassador Haley received 55% support in the question asking who was a ‘likable candidate’, comfortably surpassing former President Trump (36%). In the ‘reasonable candidate’ category, it was 51%, also ahead of former President Trump (36%).
In New Hampshire’s primary election, not only Republicans but also unaffiliated voters can vote. It serves as a ‘presidential election weather vane’ as it is suitable for evaluating the competitiveness of specific candidates in the presidential election (main election) next November. It also has the effect of consolidating the structure of the primary by condensing the meaningful second or third best among the runners. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a leading anti-Trump figure in the Republican Party, also recently declared support for former Ambassador Haley.
However, according to a CBS survey, in central Iowa, where the Republican Party’s first presidential primary will be held on the 15th of the same month, former Ambassador Haley’s approval rating was only 13%, far behind former President Trump (58%). The Iowa primary is held in the form of a ‘caucus’ in which only Republicans can participate, giving former President Trump an advantage.
After making waves in New Hampshire, former Ambassador Haley is planning to catch up with former President Trump in the South Carolina primary election, which will be held in her hometown and political garden on February 23 next year. Former Ambassador Haley was born and raised here, and he also served as governor. After proving his competitiveness in the main election in New Hampshire, he plans to crush the ‘Trump theory’ by winning in his hometown.
Former President Trump held a campaign event in western Nevada on the 17th. This area is considered to have the highest proportion of Hispanics among the major Republican primary districts. It is interpreted as a strategy to show its advantage in the general election against President Biden by focusing on Hispanic voters, who traditionally have strong support for the Democratic Party.
President Biden, who is currently at a close disadvantage in a virtual bilateral confrontation with former President Trump, is on alert to crack down on his support base. According to a recent poll by Bloomberg-Morning Consult, 41% of voters who chose President Biden in the 2020 presidential election responded, “They are likely to consider voting for a third candidate (rather than President Biden).” On the other hand, only 35% of voters who chose former President Trump said they were “considering supporting a third candidate.” Bloomberg diagnosed on the 17th that a third candidate is emerging as a significant obstacle to mobilizing President Biden’s support base, especially young voters.
Washington =
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.