While the war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s invasion in February last year, has reached a stalemate, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly sending a ceasefire signal behind the scenes on the premise of declaring victory. At a recent press conference, they showed their will to push forward with the war, saying, “We have no intention of giving up the goal of the special military operation (Russian expression for the Ukrainian war),” but behind the scenes, they are trying to reduce the potential threat (to the regime) by ending the war. However, there are observations that an actual settlement will not be easy because Ukraine, which lost 20% of its territory to Russia, will find it difficult to accept these conditions.
On the 23rd, the New York Times (NYT) reported, citing former high-ranking Russian officials and U.S. and foreign officials, that “President Putin has been sending signals through various diplomatic channels since at least September that he is willing to call a ceasefire.” It is said that anxiety about war has intensified with the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in June of this year and the uprising of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the former head of the Russian private mercenary company Wagner Group. The NYT reported, “After Ukraine’s major counterattack, President Putin looked nervous and felt anxious,” and “It was only after some time that he resumed his daily morning swimming.”
Although it has not been made public, President Putin is known to have ordered ceasefire negotiations last fall, when Ukraine drove out Russian troops from the northeastern front. NYT reported, “At the time, U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Mark Milley believed that Ukraine had achieved a lot on the battlefield and wanted to negotiate a ceasefire, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refused.”
The background to President Putin’s behind-the-scenes negotiations is the Russian presidential election in March next year. They believe there is a need to quell domestic criticism of the prolongation of the war ahead of the presidential election. NYT reported, “Although President Putin is obsessed with the mission of reclaiming former Soviet territory, the majority of the people have a strong desire for normal daily life.”
Current and former officials told the NYT that the war situation is at a stalemate, Western support for Ukraine is weakening, and the current situation is the right time for a ceasefire as the international community’s interest has decreased due to the war in the Middle East. The NYT observed that President Putin’s recent refusal to demand President Zelensky’s resignation was also a move to create an environment for a ceasefire.
According to U.S. officials, Russia is reportedly putting forward a plan to continue ruling over the Ukrainian territory it has occupied as a condition for a ceasefire. Previously, Russia announced that it would hold presidential elections in occupied Ukraine in March next year.
Currently, Russia controls the southeastern region, including Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson. Connecting these regions with the Crimea Peninsula, which was forcibly annexed in 2014, accounts for about 20% of Ukraine’s territory. “We are waiting to receive more concrete proposals, including from President Putin signaling that he is open to a (ceasefire) deal,” a U.S. official told the NYT.
However, Ukraine’s position is that it cannot accept these conditions. President Zelenskyy is promoting a ‘peace formula’ that includes the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from occupied territories. Currently, Ukraine prohibits direct peace negotiations with President Putin by law.
Ukraine demonstrated its will to fight by working to ‘erase Russia’. Ukraine, a Greek Orthodox country along with Russia, has traditionally celebrated Christmas on January 7th according to the Julian calendar, but starting this year, it decided to celebrate it on December 25th like the West. This is the first time since the Russian Revolution in 1917.
However, it is highly likely that Russia will not officially begin ceasefire negotiations until the US presidential election in November next year. This is because if former President Donald Trump, who declared ‘America First’, returns to power, U.S. support for Ukraine could be significantly reduced. “If the situation becomes favorable for Russia, President Putin may change his mind again,” a Russian official told the NYT.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.