Survey of China’s human information network between 2010 and 2012
Mainly relies on signal information and only estimates based on public data
Establishment of China Mission Center in 2021 and significant increase in budget
The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States has been struggling to collect information on the movements of Chinese President Xi Jinping and people around him since about 20 informants in China from intelligence agencies such as the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) were wiped out between 2010 and 2012. (WSJ) reported on the 26th (local time).
The United States lost its human intelligence network in China in 2012 when President Xi Jinping became the leader of the Communist Party. President Xi became president later that year. As President Xi rose, U.S. intelligence officials expected him to be coercive, nationalistic, and focus on security, unlike previous Chinese leaders.
However, then-US President Barack Obama ignored intelligence agencies’ assessments and expected that China would develop economically, become more open, and participate in the US-led international order. U.S. governments maintained this position for the next 20 years.
President Xi’s China has strengthened its claims in the South China Sea and significantly increased military pressure on Taiwan, while increasing hacking against the U.S. government, medical institutions, technology companies, and defense companies.
China has also strengthened its efforts to recruit U.S. intelligence officials. A representative example is former CIA agent Kevin Patrick Mallory, who was convicted of selling information to China in 2018.
Last August, two U.S. sailors were arrested on charges of passing military information to China. The two people were born in China and naturalized in the United States.
Major U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA and the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), diverted their counterterrorism and Middle East budgets to the field of Chinese intelligence collection in 2020 in an effort to strengthen their intelligence collection capabilities against China. U.S. intelligence agencies spend an annual budget of more than $100 billion (approximately 129 trillion won).
◆CIA Director Burns holds weekly Chinese meetings with deputy directors
CIA Director William Burns, who established the China Mission Center shortly after becoming director in 2021, now holds weekly China meetings with deputy directors on the top floor of CIA headquarters in Langley.
The China Mission Center is responsible for overall command of the CIA’s China operations. The China Mission Center involves personnel from not only the CIA but also other agencies.
However, some point out that a major change is needed as the CIA’s intelligence collection focuses only on leaders, the military, and the economy. China is engaged in a fierce battle with the United States in areas such as quantum computers, nuclear fusion, and rare earths.
Currently, U.S. intelligence agencies mainly collect information through electronic surveillance, such as intercepting various digital communications such as phone calls and emails. However, signal information alone is insufficient to identify the enemy’s hidden intentions and weaknesses. It is limited to estimating President Xi’s intentions based on his public remarks.
Recruiting or even meeting Chinese agents is now a very dangerous situation. China is carrying out strong anti-crime activities by operating millions of surveillance cameras and a human intelligence network of millions of people. The United States lags behind China in anti-crime activities using artificial intelligence and biometric information.
China also conducts extensive surveillance overseas of CIA agents trying to recruit Chinese officials and businessmen. Chinese intelligence agents shadowed a U.S. intelligence official working as an undisclosed agent in a South American country and filmed him eating at a restaurant.
Unlike China, U.S. intelligence agencies are successfully collecting information in Russia. This makes it easy to collect information by bribing Russian elites who are dissatisfied with the high costs of the war in Ukraine. A representative example is the accurate capture of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Wagner mercenary group’s rebellion.
In comparison, it is very difficult to secure a human information network in China. CIA Deputy Director of Operations David Marlowe publicly stated in May that “the risks are high and we are often caught.”
Last August, Chinese police arrested two Chinese nationals on charges of being spies for the United States. Both people were recruited from overseas.
Director Burns announced in July that the CIA was recruiting influential Chinese officials and businessmen. He emphasized, “There is progress, and we have put in a lot of effort over the years to build a human intelligence network.”
A CIA official said that the possibility of capture is increasing due to President Xi’s dictatorship and worsening economic conditions. “It’s difficult, but not impossible,” one official said.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.