Half the planet will go to the polls in 2024: which countries will elect the president and what are the predictions

Around 70 countries that together make up more than half of the world’s population, including the United States, Russia, India, Mexico, Venezuela, Taiwan and those of the European Union, are meeting to vote in 2024, paradoxically in a context of threats to democracy.

This was concluded in its latest report by the Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), based in Stockholm democracy is in decline around the world due to threats to the integrity of electoral processes, the independence of the judiciary, security or freedom of expression and assembly, even in countries with established democratic systems.

The 2024 electoral appointments include the elections to the European Parliament which will be held on 6, 7, 8 and 9 June in the 27 EU countries and will determine the course of community politics, even if those that attract the most attention are the presidential elections in the United States, set for 5 November and whose results always have effects on the global geopolitical scenario.

Predictably, since the primaries have yet to take place, the candidates will be the same as in 2020: the Democrat Joe Biden and the Republican Donald Trump, who represent models of antagonistic countries.

Months before the Americans and the Russians are called to vote.

Vladimir Putin, for his fifth re-election

Russia’s first federal elections since the start of the war in Ukraine in February 2022 will be held on March 17, with the current head of the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, 71, running for re-election for the fifth time since then. the year 2000 and with an almost certain victory.

The elections, in which no openly opposition candidate will participate, will be a sort of referendum on the progress of the Russian military campaign in Ukraine, in which the Kremlin has not yet achieved the objectives it set when it invaded the neighboring country.

Ukraine is precisely one of the countries where, according to the electoral calendar, a new ruler would be elected in 2024, but it is not yet certain that elections will be held.

Volodimir Zelenskiy’s mandate expires on March 31, but as long as martial law is in force due to the war with Russia, elections cannot be held, although the president has suggested the possibility of legislating to allow them.

Uncertainty in Venezuela

In Venezuela there are also presidential elections in 2024, but still there is no date for a vote in which the united opposition, which abstained from participating in 2018, decided to participate following a long political negotiation with the Chavista government aimed at obtaining guarantees of electoral cleanliness and justice.

The great unknown is whether the former deputy María Corina Machado, elected in the primaries but unable to hold public office, will finally be the candidate to challenge the Chavista leader, as claimed by countries such as the United States, which actively supported the negotiation between the government and opposition.

General elections called for February 4 The Saviour They are in question because the popular President Nayib Bukele will seek a second consecutive term, something not foreseen in the country’s Constitution, but approved by the Salvadoran Supreme Electoral Tribunal.

Campaigns in Latin America and Asia

El Salvador, Nicaragua, Haiti, Venezuela and Guatemala appear in the International IDEA report on the state of democracy in the world in the group of countries where it occurred a democratic decline.

More than 4 billion people live in the countries called to vote. According to the magazine The EconomistMore than 4.1 billion people, or 51% of the world’s population, reside in countries where 2024 is an election year, as is the case in Mexico.

That country’s next president will emerge from the June 2 elections, in which for the first time in Mexican history dWomen are the main candidates: the ruling party Claudia Sheinbaum, former head of government of Mexico City, and Xóchitl Gálvez, former senator and leader of the opposition platform Fuerza y ​​​​​​Corazón por México.

In Latin America, general elections (presidential and parliamentary) are also scheduled in Panama (5 May), Dominican Republic (19 May) and Uruguay (27 October).

Taiwan will begin the year with presidential elections (January 13) which will be held at a time of growing tension between Taipei and Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the island, and with the candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) vice president, William Lai (Lai Ching-te), leads the polls.

In the so-called “largest democracy in the world”, India, the most populous country (1,428 million inhabitants) and third largest economy in the world, elections will also be held in 2024 (April and May) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a great chance of winning a third consecutive termaccording to polls.

Two European countries, Portugal and Belgium, will renew their parliaments in 2024: the first on March 10 and in advance, following the resignation of the prime minister, the socialist António Costa, due to an investigation into corruption, and the second on on 9 June and in conjunction with the European Parliament elections.

Source: EFE