2024: Welcome to the year of Donald Trump 2

In November 2020, in that year’s national election, Joe Biden won Michigan by three points over Donald Trump. Not necessarily a business, but a proof of the twist that annulled the tycoon’s re-election.

This State has just acquired centrality as the Supreme Court validated the former president’s right to run, attribute denied in Colorado or Maine due to the attack on the Capitol. Michigan, however, is important for other reasons. It is one of six oscillating states, So called because they vote for both parties and that is why they define governments in the United States.

In polls ahead of next year’s elections in which Biden will seek re-election, the Democrat appears now five points down in that district, a gap of 8 points if this loss is added to what was gained before. Anticipation of how things will go.

Add to the analysis the fact that polls show similar behavior in most of the rest of the handful of key states that make up Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Only in this last constituency is there a very slight light in favor of Biden. Just one consolation: In 2020 he had won them all.

The failure of the polls obviously deserves all the distrust not only because it is widespread 11 months after the polls opened. These election surveys usually provide a dubious photo of the present and even more vague about the future because the people consulted lie or hide their preferences, a behavior widespread in the United States, especially among black and Latino minorities.

But even with these suspicions should not be ignored the impact of coincidence on the results of all sampling, without exceptions. Recently The New York Times investigated election humor in the oscillating statesand I was surprised by the results.

Hispanics and blacks

He also discovered that 42% of Hispanics and 22% of Blacks They preferred Trump. A serious alarm for the democratic stronghold due to the loss or fragmentation of the party’s historical base.

This is a reality check for the ruling party, which is mistakenly convinced that the barrage of more than 70 lawsuits against the former president, his populist adventurism, xenophobia, his new moral ultraconservatism and essentially coup attempt of January 6, 2021 against the Capitol, a chapter still present with those judicial battles, would be enough to bring it down.

At the basis of this notable preference of the electorate it is underlined that up to 60% believe that Trump would manage the economy more effectively, also immigration and global conflicts. It is a complex conclusion and contradictory to the facts.

The US economy has improved since the pandemic, THE inflation has collapsed At 3%, the country will grow this year just over 2% above expectations, there is more investment and an increase in consumer spending.

True, all this together with an increase in interest rates of up to 5.5%. Mortgage loans were affected in a country whose individuals tend to spend more than their income. But this adjustment does not affect the entire family loan chain.

As for the global issue, the United States has regained with Biden the leadership it had lost with Trump, largely due to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine that has redrawn the map of the world. This behavior was also noted in the recent Middle East crisis.

Biden reacted quickly, sending two aircraft carriers to the region to sterilize any movements of Washington’s adversaries and making clear the importance of this conflict for American leadership. Scenarios in which this government clearly understood that the hegemony of power was at stake.

It is speculated that the loss of support that Biden suffers despite these results is a consequence of a leadership lacking charisma, permeated by the mists of the Cold War and generally responsive to events. Also due to the burden of age, a condition accompanied by failures that quickly become viral.

A geriatric president who, if he won in November, would end his term at 85. Trump is not young either He’s just four years younger. However, this is not the point to underline.

Exhaustion

There is a reality that shows levels of exhaustion in that society and deeper mutations in the evolution of power. Support for Israel, which even Trump would not spare, is overshadowed by the premeditated operation of demolition and collective punishment carried out by Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. Biden has lost support in his country because of that support the public observes uncritically.

Something similar happens with Ukraine. In June, according to Gallup, 29% of Americans understood that the United States was already doing so “too” to help the attacked European country, a stable percentage from August 2022. But a new survey in November found that this was “too much” it had risen to 41%.

Trumpism relies on this vision to block multimillion-dollar aid to Kiev, a gesture that barely conceals the former president’s sympathy for Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. contempt for the global scope of that conflict.

The war is largely static due to the Kremlin’s patient waiting the November polls. Israeli ultranationalist groups also hope to celebrate the tycoon’s return, convinced that he will free their hands even more than he did during his first term, when he declared settlements in the occupied territories legal.

Analysts such as the well-known political scientist Joseph Nye clearly warn that the landing of triumph 2 It would advance the “liberal internationalism” that has dominated American politics since World War II. THE “First Americans”as he calls them (i America first), adopt, he says, “a narrow, isolationist view of the United States’ role in the world.” Biden wants to maintain the existing order and Trump wants to abandon it.

This insularity would result in a breakdown of Atlanticism, a slam the door on NATO and radical changes in the evolution of the East-West conflict with China. If Putin defeats Kiev it will become a threat to its European neighborhood. Taiwan, in turn, would enter a risk zone with a president who has made no secret of his disinterest in facing a nuclear power to defend that rebellious island.

They are dams that will break or collapse under the force of the dynamics itself. Even in our region there will be no shortage of celebrations, but it will be important to underline that in The previous management of the tycoon did not exist in the south of Latin America.

It would be worth remembering his assessment “shitty country” to El Salvador by Nayib Bukele, one of his most passionate authoritarian supporters, a concept he also unleashed against Haiti, reducing Mexico to a shadowy exporter of “drugs and rapists”.

Trump’s return to power is very likely It is not an accident of history. or product of leadership whims. There are objective reasons that make this possible and are reflected in an era of rising nationalisms, transactional rulers and weakened democracies.

It is not justice, as the Colorado Supreme Court proposes, that must enter politics and stop all this exotic leader, but politics itself that should explore what causes a populist charlatan to consolidate himself at the helm of the greatest planetary power to remove it from the center of gravity of the global agenda. A question that defines the era.

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