“If you vote for the Democratic Progressive Party, young people will have to go to war” Spreading fake news… Military pressure and economic sanctions
“If you vote for the Democratic Progressive Party, there will be no peace on both sides of the Strait (China and Taiwan). “Every young man must go to war.”
This is fake news that China is spreading to young people in Taiwan through the video platform TikTok. Ahead of Taiwan’s presidential election on January 13, 2024, China is engaging in election interference by mass distributing videos targeting Taiwan’s young voters. Taiwanese media views China’s strategy as ‘cognitive warfare’. Cognitive warfare refers to a strategy that leads to victory in a war by spreading false information to the enemy command, forcing them to make irrational decisions based on incorrect perceptions, or inducing mistakes in the operation of weapons and equipment.
A high-ranking Taiwanese official pointed out, “China is inciting the youth by heightening the sense of war crisis on both sides of the Straits, slandering Taiwan’s military service policy, and raising negative perceptions.” This official claimed, “China is trying to influence the presidential election by manipulating public opinion, saying that if cross-strait relations are not good, young people will be driven to the battlefield.” Gu Li-hsiung, secretary of the National Security Council (NSC), which oversees Taiwan’s intelligence agency, the National Security Bureau (NSB), said, “Taiwan is receiving 5 million Internet attacks from China every day.” The Ministry of Information and Communications Security, an investigative bureau under Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice that investigates crimes related to national security, said, “China is attempting to divide public sentiment by hacking Taiwan’s Internet and packaging fake news as if it were a post written by a Taiwanese citizen.”
China is using all means and methods, including spreading fake news, to prevent President Lai Ching-de and Vice-President Xiao Mei-qin, the pro-American candidates of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, from winning Taiwan’s presidential election. They are calling for Taiwanese independence in their election campaigns. 2024 is a ‘super election year’ in which presidential and general elections will be held in 71 countries around the world. Taiwan’s presidential election is an important event that marks the beginning of 2024.
Looking at the situation surveyed by Taiwanese public opinion polling agencies, the Democratic Progressive Party’s President Lai and Vice President Xiao Kang are ahead of the pro-Beijing and main opposition Kuomintang Party’s President Hou Yui and Vice President Zhao Xiaokang within the margin of error. The second opposition People’s Party’s candidates for President Ko Won-je and Vice-President Wu Xin-ying are showing a significant gap with the previous two candidates.
![Kuomintang's presidential candidate Hou Yui. [GETTYIMAGES]](https://dimg.donga.com/wps/NEWS/IMAGE/2023/12/30/122834419.2.jpg)
Kuomintang’s presidential candidate Hou Yui. [GETTYIMAGES]Wu Zizha, chairman of Taiwanese Internet media Meili Dao Electronic News, predicted, “The approval ratings between the two candidates are close, and the winner will be decided around 500,000 votes.” In particular, Chairman Woo pointed out, “Winning or losing will be determined by which candidate young people in their 20s and 30s support.”
Candidate Lai has shown an anti-China stance to the extent that China calls him a ‘Taiwanese independence activist.’ China believes that candidate Lai has a stronger independence tendency than President Tsai Ing-wen. In fact, Candidate Lai emphasized, “Taiwan is not part of China,” and “We will protect Taiwan’s democratic constitutional system and maintain the status quo.” On the other hand, Candidate Hou has shown his stance to strengthen cooperation with China. China is on guard, saying that if candidate Lai is elected, Taiwan may break the ‘one China’ principle and become independent.
In order to prevent candidate Lai from being elected, China is showing the Taiwanese people to choose between peace and war. Chen Binhua, spokesperson for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council of China, said, “Taiwan is currently faced with two future choices: peace and war, prosperity and decline. “He claimed. Spokesperson Chen warned, “If Taiwan independence means war, how can there be peace?”
Above all, China is increasing military pressure on Taiwan. The Shandong battle group, an aircraft carrier of the Chinese Navy, recently conducted maritime exercises in the midline of the Taiwan Strait, which separates Taiwan from mainland China. This can be seen as a kind of demonstration of force suggesting an invasion of Taiwan. In the meantime, Chinese military aircraft and warships conducted joint patrol activities in waters near Taiwan. Chinese fighter jets and bombers frequently entered Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
China launched a Long March-2D rocket for satellite launch from the Xichang Satellite Launch Center in Sichuan Province, and the rocket passed through southwest Taiwan’s airspace. China, which possesses about 1,500 missiles of various types capable of attacking Taiwan, launched a rocket on a trajectory that passes through Taiwan’s airspace to demonstrate its will to attack Taiwan at any time. Last December, China flew reconnaissance balloons across the midline of the Taiwan Strait five times.
China is also putting pressure on Taiwan economically. China has also implemented economic sanctions targeting Taiwan from the beginning of 2023. China’s Customs Rules Committee decided to suspend tariff reductions that had been applied under the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) for 12 chemical items from Taiwan and impose tax rates according to current regulations. Those subject to suspension of tariff reduction are chemical items such as propylene, butadiene, isoprene, paraxylene, and vinyl chloride. China and Taiwan have applied tariff-free benefits to 267 Taiwanese and 539 Chinese products under ECFA. The Taiwanese government objected, saying, “China’s unilateral action is intended to influence the presidential election.”
Previously, China conducted a large-scale tax investigation on Foxconn factories established by Guo Taiming, an independent candidate, to pressure unification of pro-China candidates, and Guo eventually resigned. Candidate Guo served as the founder and chairman of Foxconn. Foxconn, Apple’s largest supplier in the U.S., operates large-scale factories in China, including in Zhengzhou.
China resumed imports of rockfish from Taiwan and also introduced ‘carrots.’ China’s intention is to indirectly support the Kuomintang by lifting the ban on imports of fish farmed by fishermen in the southern part of the country, which is the Democratic Progressive Party’s stronghold. China is also sending conciliatory gestures to the Taiwanese people under the pretext of exchange and cooperation. In fact, China sponsored Taiwanese voters to travel to China at a low price. According to Taiwanese media reports, 30% of the heads of the capital Taipei city visited China for a week, but the personal expenses were only 10,000 to 15,000 Taiwanese dollars (about 420,000 to 620,000 won). This is because the cost of meals and sightseeing was borne by China. Heads of major cities, including Kaohsiung, the second largest city, also went on ‘low-cost trips’ to China. Taiwan’s village head is similar to that of Korea’s village head, but is an elected position.
China is encouraging Taiwanese living in the country to actively participate in the presidential election and choose the Kuomintang candidate. To this end, China invited Kuomintang Vice Chairman Xia Lien, a famous pro-Beijing politician in Taiwan, to tour five southern regions of the country where many Taiwanese live. About 1.2 million Taiwanese people live in China for business reasons, accounting for 5% of Taiwan’s population. Taiwan does not have an absentee voting system, so overseas Koreans must return to Taiwan in person to vote. Vice President Xia attended gatherings of Taiwanese people and urged them to return to Taiwan and vote. China is also providing partial airfare support for Taiwanese returning home.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP), a Hong Kong English-language newspaper, pointed out, “Since candidates Lai and Hou are competing closely in the Taiwan presidential election, the voting participation of Taiwanese living in China could be a major variable.” “80% of Taiwanese businessmen are preparing to return to Taiwan to vote,” said Li Zhenghong, chairman of the Taiwan Chinese Investment Enterprise Association.
It is clear that the results of Taiwan’s presidential election will have a significant impact not only on cross-Strait relations but also on the international order, including Northeast Asia. From China’s perspective, if pro-Beijing candidate Hou wins the Taiwan presidential election, it could be an opportunity for unification. Chinese President Xi Jinping attended a discussion commemorating the 130th anniversary of Mao Zedong’s birth held at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on December 26, 2022, and emphasized, “The country must and inevitably be reunified.” For China, if it takes control of the South China Sea and Southeast Asia based on the unification of Taiwan, it can occupy an advantageous position in the struggle for hegemony with the United States. China can also overcome U.S. economic sanctions by using high-tech industries such as Taiwanese semiconductors.
On the other hand, the results of Taiwan’s election are also important from the U.S. perspective. For the United States, if Candidate Lai is elected, it can block China’s challenge to maritime hegemony, such as its advance into the South China Sea and Pacific Ocean, through military cooperation with Taiwan. Although China has a long coastline of 4,000 km, it has had difficulty advancing into the ocean due to being blocked by Korea and Japan to the east and Taiwan and the Philippines to the south. Using Taiwan as a stepping stone, the United States can strengthen its influence over countries in the Indo-Pacific, including Southeast Asia. In addition, the supply chain for Taiwan’s high-tech industrial companies, including TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor company, can be maintained. As the proxy war between the United States and China rages on, the international community is paying attention to whether Taiwanese voters will be able to make a wise choice.
〈This article
Weekly Donga
It was published in issue 1421〉
Jang-Hoon Lee, international affairs analyst [email protected]
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.