2024, the year in which the European right could ally itself with “the Milei” who are strengthening themselves in the old continent

On June 9, more than 350 million Europeans will be called to the polls to renew the European Parliament in one of the largest democratic elections on the planet.

The poll aggregates demonstrate this the two far-right groups (ID and ECR or the combinations they form) will grow again. For the first time in the history of the European Parliament, these ultra forces could obtain an absolute majority with the traditional right of the European People’s Party, eliminating the traditional need for an alliance uniting the centre-right with the centre-left around the liberals and adding the environmentalists, the four openly pro-European formations.

The change in the functioning of the European institutions would be Copernican because from a European Chamber dominated, despite its divergences, by a large pro-European coalition, we would move to two fronts of similar dimensions (slightly larger on the right) facing each other in policies and appointments . .

And I would end up giving up what’s left sanitary cordon against the far right. The traditional right needs these pacts if it wants to continue to have the leadership of the European institutions.

The European People’s Party is unclear. Its leader, the Bavarian Manfred Weber, supports the rapprochement with the European “mileis” (the Italian Giorgia Meloni, the Hungarian Viktor Orban, the Dutch Geert Wilders, the Spanish Santiago Abascal and others) and the pacts in the national governments that they always serve to keep the popular people in power.

Weber even went to Rome to meet Giorgia Meloni while they were negotiating the Italian coalition that united the far right of Matteo Salvini’s League and Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia with the Forza Italia of Antonio Tajani, heir to Silvio Berlusconi and former commissioner . of the European Parliament.

Weber also applauded the right’s pact with the Finnish far right, the ultras’ parliamentary support for the Swedish conservative government and hoped that Alberto Núñez-Feijóo would come to power in Spain at the hands of Santiago Abascal.

Divisions between conservatives

His European bet is on a pact that unites the European People’s Party and the far right, but not even all conservatives agree on this move.

While the Spanish, Italians, Austrians, Scandinavians and French seem to be breaking the last barriers with the far right, the Germans, Belgians, Irish and above all the Poles are maintaining the sanitary cordons.

The bitter side of a pact between traditional conservatives and the far right is the opening of a path for political parties hostile to common policies and tending, despite their agreements, towards national solutions.

If we add to this the possibility that the American tycoon Donald Trump returns to power in Washington next November, the European scene sees political clouds on the horizon.

The far right no longer needs to campaign because liberals and conservatives do it for them. The Dutch prime minister, the liberal Mark Rutte, wanted to curb its growth with a very harsh immigration law.

The Dutch Parliament threw him away, Rutte resigned and in the early legislative elections Geert Wilders’ far right was the force with the most votes and aspires to govern.

In France, Emmanuel Macron copied Rutte’s idea, presented an immigration law far from the French tradition that gathered votes from Marine Le Pen’s far right and caused the resignation of several Macronist ministers, although only one was completed.

Marine Le Pen wildly applauded Macron’s foot strike. To end the year, the European institutions finally agreed, after three years of fruitless talks, on a European Pact on Migration and Asylum which, above all, strengthens asylum up to allow the detention of children, It will not work when the number of arrivals is significant and complicates the foreign policy of a European Union considered, as European Chancellor Josep Borrell himself recognized, as hostile to the south of the world.

The ID, the group which includes Austrian, French, Dutch, Flemish or Italian (Salvini’s) far-right extremists, could aspire to reach almost 90 deputies. Added to the ECR (where the Scandinavians, the Poles, probably the Hungarians, the Italians of Meloni or those of VOX sit) they would exceed the 175 expected by the European People’s Party.

Those three formations together would be caressing the absolute majority. Socialists dream of reaching 150, liberals are unlikely to reach 90 and environmentalists expect destruction that will take them below 60.

Weber is the key to bringing ECR and ID together and allying them with the popular ones. Their union would be achieved thanks to the sweetness of being able to aspire to the presidencies of parliamentary commissions and, for the first time, to high-level European positions, at least to an executive vice-presidency in the European Commission.

A right-wing and far-right government in Spain would have helped Weber, whose most important support is limited to prime ministers such as the Greek or Swedish one, because Donald Tusk, the newly elected Polish prime minister, despite coming from a conservative family, refuses to get closer on the far right, his great national political rival. This is partly why Weber is so angry that he resisted the progressive coalition in Spain, because in his shoe are the big Chinese.