2024 is a year of great upheaval when half of the world’s population will hold elections.
According to current affairs magazine Time, at least 64 countries are holding national elections. The combined populations of these countries account for approximately 49% of the world’s population.
With as many as 4 billion voters deciding the fate of national leaders, attention is focused on how the election results will reshape the international order.
Foreign media, including the British daily Guardian, paid attention to the meaning of elections, saying that the richest countries (USA, India, UK), the most authoritarian countries (Russia, Iran), and the most threatened countries (Taiwan, Ukraine) are holding elections. .
◇November US presidential election, concerns about Trump coming back to power
Of course, the biggest topic is the US presidential election to be held on November 5th next year. The whole world is anxiously watching whether U.S. President Joe Biden can keep his position in a rematch with former President Donald Trump.
Currently, former President Trump is slightly ahead in many opinion polls. However, there are many voices concerned about his return to power. The Guardian pointed out that Trump’s victory could inevitably spark chaos and revenge, permanently upending the international order and tipping the balance toward authoritarianism and dictatorship.
The British economist also cited former President Trump’s return to power as the biggest threat the world will face this year. If the Biden administration’s economic policies, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Green New Deal, are scrapped and trade barriers are raised, Korea will also have to reorganize its strategy.
◇Taiwan presidential election determines the situation in Northeast Asia
Taiwan will hold a presidential election on January 13. As China strengthens its military pressure on Taiwan every day, attention is focused on what choices Taiwan will make amid fierce external pressure.
The security landscape in East Asia may change depending on whether Taiwan’s independence-oriented Democratic Progressive Party, led by President Tsai Ing-wen, continues to take power, or whether the main opposition Kuomintang or the second opposition People’s Party changes government.
The British Guardian predicted that if the Democratic Progressive Party wins again, an angry China could increase its threat level, which could eventually quickly attract the United States and regional allies.
◇Russia and Ukraine holding presidential elections… Will the battlefield change?
Russia and Ukraine, which have been at war for nearly two years, will hold presidential elections in the same year.
Russia will hold a three-day presidential election from March 15th to 17th, and President Vladimir Putin will run for a fifth term.
President Putin’s re-election is certain. Because he suppressed, expelled, or eliminated his rivals. The Guardian said that his bid for a fifth term would be “more like a coronation than a competition,” and that “the title of the 2024 fake election should go to Russia.”
In the case of Ukraine, martial law is currently in place, so it is unclear whether a presidential election will be held, but President Zelenskyy’s term ends next year. He has announced that he will run for re-election, and his approval rating is quite high, so it is believed that he has a good chance of winning a second term.
◇Asia’s most populous countries ahead of elections
India, which surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country, and Pakistan, which has the world’s 5th most populous country, are holding general elections.
In India, the election date has not yet been confirmed, but April or May is likely. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is running for a third consecutive term, and the key is whether he can defeat the Indian National Development Alliance (INDIA), an opposition coalition formed by as many as 28 political parties.
Pakistan holds general elections on February 8th. Indonesia, which also boasts a population of 280 million, will hold both presidential and general elections on February 14. Bangladesh, home to 174 million people, will hold general elections on January 7, at the beginning of the year.
◇Continent of Europe is also in turmoil ahead of the election.
In continental Europe, Austria, Belgium, Croatia, and Finland will each hold elections this year, and the European Parliament elections will be held in June.
Recently, far-right parties in Italy, the Netherlands, and Slovakia have grown in power by pushing agendas such as nationalism, anti-immigration, and xenophobia. Another factor to note is how this atmosphere will affect the European Parliament elections.
The United Kingdom is also considering holding an early general election at the end of next year. According to the Daily Telegraph, the ruling Conservative Party, led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is looking at tax cuts, including the abolition of inheritance tax, in order to win the general election next spring. Attention is focused on whether voters whose living standards have worsened due to rising prices and economic recession will vote for the Conservative Party again.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.