Issues such as real estate stagnation, high debt ratio, and sluggish demand were raised.
It has been argued that the Chinese economy will be more difficult this year than last year and that various serious internal problems, such as the real estate recession and sluggish demand, will hinder Chinese economic growth.
On the 1st (local time), the Guardian cited an analysis by George Magnus, a researcher at the China Center at the University of Oxford in the UK, saying, “It is possible that the Chinese government will adopt this year’s economic growth target of around 5%, but the actual situation is likely to be more difficult than last year.” “He predicted.
The Guardian also reported, “China recognizes that it faces great challenges today, but it blames this on low (external) trust in itself and claims that they will be resolved by 2024.”
“But the reality is that numerous problems exist in China’s $19 trillion economy,” he said. “A sharp decline in the real estate market, high debt, insufficient demand, stagnant productivity growth, politicization of regulation, and rapidly aging population.” “Problems such as high youth unemployment rate and inequality are emerging,” he analyzed.
The newspaper also predicted, “Those expecting meaningful macroeconomic stimulus and reform this year will continue to be disappointed.” He predicted, “Economic stabilization policies such as tax and fee reductions for companies and more support for the struggling housing market are expected to be introduced, but monetary and credit policies will remain cautious.”
“There is no indication that the Chinese government will take serious action to increase consumer demand and household income, but instead it is promoting a positive narrative about the Chinese economy by strengthening propaganda and public opinion guidance, i.e. ‘cheerleading’ (strategy). It is known that it has been decided,” he added.
The newspaper also expressed concerns about the relationship between the United States and China and between China and the European Union (EU), saying, “The threat of a new trade war is looming.”
In addition, he analyzed, “China’s industrial policies, such as large-scale industrial support and expansion of subsidies, have caused overproduction problems in sensitive fields such as steel and new and renewable energy in the past, and this is currently reflected in the electric vehicle and battery fields.”
The newspaper also said, “China should use a strategy of market and structural reform instead of the more familiar strategy of doubling its already high manufacturing investment and exports,” adding, “But China will not do that, and as a result, the economy will be in an imbalanced situation.” “It will be done,” he pointed out.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.