Attention is paid to the recurrence of strong earthquakes in the future like the Great East Japan Earthquake in the magnitude 7 earthquake.
Japanese expert: “Possibility of a prelude to a massive earthquake of magnitude 8-9 or greater”
Domestic expert: “Rather than advancing, the impact on Korea is likely to be small.”
With a large earthquake measuring 7.6 magnitude occurring in Japan on New Year’s Day, attention is focused on whether larger earthquakes will occur in nearby areas in the future. This is because during the Great East Japan Earthquake (an earthquake in the Pacific Ocean in the Tohoku region) that had a magnitude of 9.0 in 2011, there was a foreshock (an earthquake that occurs before a major earthquake) of magnitude 7 or higher.
Some local experts in Japan have raised concerns that a larger earthquake may occur. However, domestic earthquake experts predicted that there was a high possibility that this earthquake was a mainshock and that there was no longer any possibility of it directly impacting Korea, such as a tsunami.
According to the Meteorological Agency on the 2nd, a magnitude 7.4 earthquake (7.6 according to the Japan Meteorological Agency) occurred in the waters 90km north of Toyama, Toyama Prefecture (Honshu), Japan, at around 4:10 p.m. the previous day. Due to this effect, a tsunami measuring up to 85 cm (based on Mukho, Gangwon-do) was observed on the east coast of Korea.
This earthquake was recorded as the strongest earthquake since the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011. In particular, it was more powerful than the magnitude 7.3 Great Hanshin Earthquake that struck the Hanshin region in January 1995. In fact, according to NHK and others, at least 24 people (as of 2 p.m. on the 2nd) died in this earthquake.
News of this earthquake has some domestic citizens concerned that a larger earthquake may occur after this one. This is because a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in the nearby area on March 9, 2011, two days before the Great East Japan Earthquake. In particular, anxiety is growing as the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear power plant leak accident occurred.
In fact, some in Japan’s local geology community expressed the opinion that a larger earthquake could occur after this earthquake.
In an interview with the Sankei Shimbun, seismic archaeologist Akira Sangawa said, “Earthquakes occur as a result of fault activity and deformation of the crust. There is a risk that large earthquakes will occur in areas other than the Noto Peninsula (central Honshu Island) in the future.” .
In particular, referring to the Great Nankai Earthquake, which occurs every 100 to 150 years, he said, “Earthquakes are known to increase in western Japan spanning Kyushu, including the Noto Peninsula, decades before the Great Nankai Earthquake occurred,” and said about this earthquake, “It is part of this period of fault activity.” “I think this is it,” he said.
However, domestic experts said that there is a high possibility that this earthquake was a mainshock, and that even if an earthquake occurs in a nearby area, there may be aftershocks with a smaller intensity than the current one.
Hong Tae-kyung, a professor in the Department of Earth System Science at Yonsei University, said, “(The area where the earthquake occurred) is at the boundary between the Okhotsk plate and the Eurasian plate, so an earthquake of magnitude 9 or higher, like the Great East Japan Earthquake, can occur,” adding, “In the case of that area (where this earthquake occurred), the relatively accumulated energy is “Because there are so few, the maximum magnitude of an earthquake that can occur is expected to be relatively small,” he said.
Professor Hong said that when looking at the history of past earthquakes in the area where this earthquake occurred, the magnitude 7.4 earthquake was confirmed to be the largest earthquake, but added, “However, if the recurrence period (a period in which earthquakes of a certain magnitude occur repeatedly) is prolonged, the maximum magnitude can also increase significantly. Therefore, we cannot say for certain that an earthquake of magnitude 8 will not occur.”
Cho Chang-soo, head of the Earthquake Research Center at the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, said, “This earthquake occurred slightly inward from the plate boundary, and there is a high possibility that this was the main earthquake.” He also said that even if an aftershock occurs, it is unlikely that a large tsunami will occur on the east coast of Korea.
Center Director Cho predicted that there would be little direct impact on Korea due to aftershocks, saying, “The topography of the Noto Peninsula itself will not cause a tsunami to Korea.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.