The most interesting elections in Europe this year are the presidential elections in Russia and Ukraine. These two countries, which started the war in February 2022, are scheduled to hold presidential elections next year. The election results are expected to have an impact on the international situation and the outcome of the war between Russia and Russia. However, in the case of Ukraine, there is a possibility that the presidential election will be postponed because it is under wartime martial law. The European Union (EU) parliamentary election and the UK general election are also notable elections.
◆Russia’s March presidential election… Putin likely to run for 5th term
Russian presidential election day is March 17th. Russia will hold a three-day presidential election for the first time this year, with voting taking place from the 15th to the 17th of the same month. The four occupied regions of Ukraine (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia) that were forcibly annexed in 2022 will also participate in the vote.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to run for a fifth term. President Putin maintains a high approval rating of around 80%.
President Putin officially announced his bid for a fifth term on December 8 last year, 100 days before the election. Next, the marathon year-end press conference, a large annual event, was held for the first time in two years on the 14th of last month. This four-minute event was reminiscent of his declaration of candidacy. Regarding the war in Ukraine, President Putin said, “There is no change in the goal,” and also made it clear that “the war will only end when the goal is achieved.”
President Putin ran as an independent candidate this time, just as he did in 2000, 2004, and 2018. In 2012, he ran as a candidate for the ruling United Russia party. As a result of the closing of presidential candidate registration documents by the Russian Central Election Commission on the 1st, it is expected that he will compete with two independent candidates and eight political party candidates this time.
If President Putin succeeds in winning a second term, his period of power will exceed 30 years. Through the 2020 constitutional amendment, he extended the presidential term from 4 to 6 years and allowed for 3 consecutive terms, effectively opening the way for him to remain in power for life. The official term of office for the fifth term (6 years) runs until 2030, but assuming a third consecutive term, he can remain in power until 2036.
Since his first election in 2000, President Putin has been in power for 24 years, serving four times as president and once as prime minister. He was born on October 7, 1952, and turns 72 this year.
◆Ukra, wartime martial law undecided… Zelensky: “It is not time for elections”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s term ends in May of this year. He was elected President of Ukraine for a five-year term on May 20, 2019.
If things go as planned, the presidential election should be held on March 31st. Ukraine’s constitution stipulates that elections be held on the last Sunday of March, the fifth year of the president’s term.
However, at the same time, elections are prohibited under martial law under the Constitution. Ukraine declared martial law on February 24, 2022, following Russia’s full-scale invasion, and continues to extend it. Unless the law is amended, the election must be postponed.
“Now is not the right time for elections,” President Zelenskyy said last November. And he asked Congress to extend martial law by 90 days, until February 14 of this year. About 80% of Ukrainians are also opposed to holding elections before the war ends.
However, the variable is pressure from some parts of the international community, including the US Republican Party.
President Zelenskyy received attention and support from around the world as a ‘war hero’, but now it seems that his support has waned further. This is because the so-called ‘great counterattack’ in June of last year, which was expected, failed to produce the desired results, and the war is prolonged into a stalemate.
The Ukrainian presidential election is also intertwined with internal and external difficulties, such as the US Republican Party’s opposition to the additional budget to support Ukraine, the outbreak of the Hamas war in Israel and Palestine, and internal corruption issues such as misappropriation of war funds.
It is unclear when the election will be held, but President Zelenskyy has signaled his intention to run for a second term. His approval rating is still high.
Some point out that even if President Zelenskyy retains power, his position could be greatly shaken depending on the results of the US presidential election in November this year. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is expected to have a return match with U.S. President Joe Biden, said regarding the Russo-U.S. war that “it can be ended in just one day.” This suggests that, contrary to President Zelenskyy’s wishes, they may give up Ukrainian territory to Russia and pressure them to end the war.
◆EU, parliamentary elections in June… Attention is focused on ‘regime change’ in early general elections within the UK
In addition, general elections, presidential elections, and local elections will be held this year in many European countries.
According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), European countries will hold nine general elections this year, four of which are expected to see notable changes in government or policy direction.
General elections in Portugal (March 10), Austria (September), and Lithuania (October 6). Most importantly, the United Kingdom is also planning to hold an early general election sometime this year, bringing forward the general election scheduled for January 2025. Prime Minister Rishi Sunnack’s Conservative Party is lagging far behind the main opposition Labor Party in recent opinion polls.
Additionally, the European Union (EU) parliamentary elections will be held from June 6 to 9. The European Commission, the executive branch of the EU, will also be replaced.
The EU Parliament election is the 10th election since the first direct elections in 1979 and the first election since Brexit. More than 400 million voters in 27 member states elect 720 EU lawmakers. It is the second largest democratic election in the world after India.
European countries holding presidential elections this year include Finland (January 28), Slovakia (March 17), North Macedonia (April 24), Lithuania (May 12), Iceland (June 1), and Moldova ( Fall), Romania (November), Croatia (December), etc.
Local elections are also scheduled in Poland (April) and the UK (May 2), as well as Belgium, Bosnia, Ireland, Malta, Romania, and Russia.
Following Italy, Slovakia, and the Netherlands, there is interest in how far the far-right wind will blow. Depending on the election results, there is a possibility that the direction of major policies such as the Russo-Russian war, immigration, and climate will change.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.