“It is not subject to the 14th Amendment to the Presidential Constitution.” There is a high possibility of circumvention.
Whether or not he is exempted from charges of inciting the Capitol riot will have a major impact on the campaign.
The timing of the ruling is also a big variable in the presidential election… First ruling expected in June
Attention is focused on the Supreme Court’s ruling as Trump appealed the disqualification of Donald Trump from running as the Republican presidential candidate in Colorado and Maine.
On the 4th (local time), POLITICO reported six scenarios in which the Supreme Court would hold a trial regarding the Trump case. Although it is very difficult to predict the outcome of the trial, the Supreme Court’s ruling is expected to have a significant impact on the presidential election, which will heat up American politics throughout this year.
◆Trump’s eligibility to run under the 14th Amendment
The decision by Colorado and Maine to disqualify Trump from running for office on charges of inciting the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, is in accordance with the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which prohibits those who participated in the insurrection from holding federal office.
However, this is the first time in U.S. history that the Supreme Court has reviewed the eligibility of a presidential candidate under Article 14, so it is almost impossible to predict what decision it will make.
The Federal Supreme Court must first decide whether the Colorado Supreme Court can rule on Trump’s eligibility to run.
However, this does not mean that the Supreme Court must directly determine Trump’s eligibility to run under the 14th Amendment to the Constitution. Supreme Court justices can avoid answering this question, and the president has many ways to circumvent a direct answer, such as ruling that the 14th Amendment does not apply.
If the Supreme Court makes a bypass ruling, it ultimately leads to a decision to maintain Trump’s candidacy.
◆Presidential immunity and Trump’s various criminal trials
The Supreme Court must consider not only Trump’s qualifications to run, but also whether Trump enjoys immunity after being indicted on charges of inciting the Capitol riot.
Whether or not the Supreme Court judges recognize immunity will determine whether Trump will be able to campaign freely in the U.S. presidential race, which is in full swing.
Trump argues that his denial of the results of the presidential election was a fulfillment of his duty as president to prevent election fraud.
But Special Counsel Jack Smith charged Trump with disenfranchising millions of voters and pressuring government officials to throw out legitimate election results.
Special Prosecutor Smith argues that Trump’s criminal actions, which were abusing his presidential power for political gain, are not subject to immunity.
Prosecutor Smith last month asked the Supreme Court to rule on whether the president’s immunity applies. This was a measure to prevent a delay in the treason trial, which is scheduled to begin on March 4. However, the Federal Supreme Court refused to hear the case, so the matter is pending in the Federal Appeals Court. If an appeal is filed after the appellate court makes a ruling, the Federal Supreme Court cannot avoid hearing it.
The problem is the timing of the Federal Supreme Court’s ruling. After the appeal, the Federal Supreme Court may postpone its decision until after the presidential election in November. If Trump wins the election, he is expected to have the Attorney General withdraw the treason charges against him, in which case the Supreme Court will not need to hear the case.
◆Decision on charges of interfering with the certification process of the 2020 presidential election results
Even if the Federal Supreme Court rejects Trump’s claim of presidential immunity, the Supreme Court must consider whether to apply to Trump the charge of obstructing the certification of the presidential election results applied to the 300 people who participated in the Capitol riot.
U.S. criminal law makes it a crime to influence witnesses, victims, or informants to interfere with the official proceedings of Congress, the courts, or the Department of Justice. Lower courts that tried those who participated in the Capitol riot almost unanimously applied this provision and found them guilty.
However, last month, the Federal Supreme Court decided to review the appropriateness of applying this law. This suggests that some Supreme Court judges are opposed to applying the law.
The Federal Supreme Court will begin hearing this issue this spring and is expected to rule in June. If the Supreme Court rules to narrow the scope of the certification obstruction charge, it may become difficult to indict Trump on charges of inciting insurrection.
◆Permissible range of Trump remarks related to trial
While Trump’s trial is in progress, the Supreme Court is expected to consider the extent to which Trump will be restricted from mentioning the trial at presidential rallies.
Judge Tanya Chuktan of the U.S. District Court in Washington, D.C., issued a ban on speaking in October last year, saying Trump’s attacks on witnesses and prosecutors undermined the fairness of the trial. Trump has argued that the speech restraining order is too broad and violates his First Amendment right to free speech.
A three-judge panel of the Washington DC Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled last month upholding the first trial’s ban on speaking. Trump later requested a hearing by a full panel of appeals court judges. No matter what the outcome of the trial is, it is clear that the losing side will appeal to the Federal Supreme Court.
◆Whether presidential immunity applies to civil lawsuits?
Trump has claimed immunity for everything he did while he was president.
However, the Washington DC Federal Circuit ruled that Trump was not exempt from charges of inciting the Capitol riot. The Second Circuit Court of Appeals in New York subsequently ruled that the author was not entitled to immunity in a defamation suit filed by author Gene Carroll.
Trump is expected to appeal these rulings to the Supreme Court, and Carroll’s lawyers also say they will quickly appeal to the Supreme Court if he loses. A ruling in the Carroll case is scheduled for later this month.
Trump is expected to try to delay sentencing until the Supreme Court rules on presidential immunity from criminal offenses.
If the Supreme Court rejects Trump’s immunity claim, Trump will have no choice but to campaign while continuing the trial.
◆Georgia election result fraud trial
Trump, his chief of staff Mark Meadows, and several others are on trial in Fulton County, Georgia, accused of attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election by pressuring Georgia election officials.
Meadows has been attempting to transfer the case to federal court rather than state court in Georgia. They expect that Trump’s immunity claim will be accepted by the Supreme Court and that the indictment against him will be dismissed.
However, a federal district court and appeals court in Georgia denied Meadows’ request to transfer the trial. Accordingly, Meadows appealed to the full bench of the 11th Circuit Court.
If Meadows wins in the Supreme Court, it will affect whether other defendants, including Trump, will have their trials transferred to federal court. However, Trump has not yet filed a request to transfer his case to federal court.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.