If candidate Christie, who ran to defeat Trump, resigns
There is a high possibility that a large number of supporters will turn to supporting candidate Haley.
DeSantis’ resignation as a candidate with low approval ratings does not help Trump much.
Former US President Donald Trump maintains an overwhelming lead in the US Republican presidential primary, but former South Carolina candidate Nikki Haley is said to be quickly narrowing the gap.
The U.S. Washington Post (WP) reported on the 9th (local time) that Candidate Haley is particularly likely to lead the Republican Party in the future due to the results of the New Hampshire election on the 23rd, where primary voting will be held in a primary method in which all voters participate, rather than a caucus method in which Republican party members vote. He pointed out that it would have a significant impact on the candidate primary.
WP said that all attention is focused on whether candidate Haley will win over Trump in the New Hampshire primary, and analyzed the results of a new opinion poll released on the 9th in detail and pointed out that there is a possibility that candidate Haley will win over Trump.
There is a big difference between the results of the two opinion polls. A CNN-University of New Hampshire Research Center poll showed Trump’s approval rating at 39% and Haley’s approval rating at 32%, with the gap between the two candidates narrowing to single digits. On the other hand, the Boston Globe-USA Today-Suffolk University poll showed a gap of 20%, 46% to 26%.
However, WP noted that candidate Haley’s approval rating was rising in two opinion polls. In a CNN survey, candidate Haley, who was behind by 22% in November last year, narrowed the gap to 7%, and in a Suffolk University survey, the gap also decreased from 30% to 20%.
WP analyzed that another difference in the two opinion polls was the notable difference in support between the two candidates among non-Republican voters. In a CNN survey, 43% of non-Republican voters supported Haley and 17% supported Trump, showing that Haley was ahead by 26%, while a Suffolk University survey showed that the gap was smaller at 13%, 36 to 23.
In particular, the two opinion polls contrast sharply in the survey of voters by education level. In a CNN survey, Haley trails Trump by 15% among voters with a high school diploma or less, and in a Suffolk University poll, she trails by 70%.
WP emphasized that this result is significant in that it shows that support for Trump is overwhelming among those with a low level of formal education. However, WP pointed out that Haley is likely to do well, given CNN’s survey results showing that the response rate of low-educated voters was 37%.
In addition, WP noted that the combined approval ratings of candidate Haley and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who received 12% support, exceeded Trump’s approval ratings in the CNN survey, and reported that this was the first major opinion poll to produce such results.
WP said there is an expectation that Candidate Christie, who has criticized Trump more strongly than anyone else, will give way to Haley in New Hampshire because he has revealed early on that his candidacy is for Trump to be defeated. It was analyzed that it shows that victory is possible.
WP reported that Christie’s supporters include 23% of non-Republican voters, 26% of centrists, and 40% of leftists, with little support from Republicans and conservatives. Accordingly, if candidate Christie resigns, it is expected that supporters will support candidate Haley in large numbers.
On the other hand, WP predicted that if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and candidate Vivek Ramaswamy do not participate in the New Hampshire primary, Trump will benefit because their support base overlaps with Trump’s.
However, WP analyzed that DeSantis’ approval rating in New Hampshire is minimal at 8% in a CNN survey and 5% in a Suffolk University survey, and that their support for Trump is not as strong as Christie’s supporters’ support for Haley Ridge, so DeSantis’ approval rating is not a big variable.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.