Ukraine hit by Russian hypersonic missile

From late December last year to early January this year, Russia mercilessly attacked all of Ukraine using nearly 500 missiles and various drones. During this process, 100 to 200 missiles were fired at a time. Ukraine mobilized all its air defense weapons, but it was not enough to intercept all targets.

Ukraine, which appealed to the West for air defense weapons support from the beginning of the war, currently possesses several high-performance air defense weapons. These include the American Patriot series, which gained fame during the Gulf War by being called a ‘missile-killing missile’; France and Italy’s SAMP/T, Europe’s best mid-range air defense system; and Germany’s latest air defense equipment, the IRIS-T SLM. These missiles have a very high hit rate against most aerial targets. In particular, the latest Patriot PAC-3 once again proved its reputation by shooting down Russia’s famous hypersonic missile ‘Kinzhal’ several times.

In fact, the Ukrainian military is fighting an air defense battle under quite favorable conditions. On social network services (SNS), open source information (OSINT) containing trends at major Russian military bases is uploaded in real time and is of great use to Ukrainian military authorities. NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) early warning aircraft and reconnaissance aircraft are also flying around Ukraine, providing information on signs of Russian air attacks. Ukraine and western Russia are vast plains with few mountains, so there is no place for aircraft to hide. Accordingly, information similar to ‘reconnaissance reports’ continues to be posted on social media, such as which aircraft take off from the air bases of both countries, when and in what direction. Nearby residents are also reporting to the authorities where visually identifiable cruise missiles or drones appear and in which direction they fly. This means that air defense combat is not that difficult because air targets can be identified as if looking into the palm of your hand.

Thanks to this, the Ukrainian military has a very high success rate in intercepting Russian subsonic cruise missiles and low-speed suicide drones such as Shahed-136. Cruise missiles fly at low altitudes at 600-800 km/h and Shahed-136 at 110-150 km/h, making them easy to identify and intercept. So why does Russia fly so many expensive cruise missiles or suicide drones, knowing that they will be shot down anyway? In conclusion, it’s because it’s worth it. Cruise missiles and suicide drones that are easily detected by radar are excellent bait to attract the attention of the Ukrainian military. This is because while Ukrainian air defense units are concentrating on these aerial targets, if they pour in other missiles, which are the ‘real punch’, the effectiveness of the attack will increase.

A ‘hybrid strike’, which fires projectiles with different flight speeds, altitudes, and trajectories at the same time, is a very troublesome attack from a defensive standpoint. There are limits to the defender’s radar and the area that can be monitored. It is nearly impossible to detect, track, and intercept all targets approaching from multiple directions at different altitudes and speeds. For example, the AN/MPQ-53 radar of the Ukrainian military’s Patriot system can monitor 120 degrees left and right in detection mode and 90 degrees left and right in tracking mode. This radar looks up at the sky at 67.5 degrees, so it can effectively detect targets that strike from high altitudes, such as ballistic missiles. On the other hand, it is difficult to find targets approaching from low altitudes. In addition, a weakness is that the radiation angle of the radar beam cannot be changed after installation. If a target approaches from the side or rear of the radar, it is virtually impossible to respond.

Russian strategic bombers are equipped with Kh-22 ‘Burya’ missiles. [위키피디아]

This vulnerability is a common problem seen in most radars used by Ukraine. The high-performance active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar TRML-4D that Ukraine received from Germany is rotary, so it has limitations in real-time detection in all directions 360 degrees. No matter how fast a rotating radar rotates, a gap in time is bound to occur until a specific point is monitored again. For this reason, it is difficult to track high-speed aircraft or drones or cruise missiles with small radar reflection areas in real time.

In recent airstrikes, the Russian military is demonstrating tactics that exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian military’s air defense network. Previously, missiles and drones were launched side by side from one direction, but recently, they are launched simultaneously from various angles. For example, at the beginning of the war, the Russian military launched missiles and drones from its northern cities of Briansk, Kursk, and Belarus, targeting the Ukrainian capital Kiev. On the other hand, recently, missiles and drones have been fired at Ukraine from the eastern cities of Belgorod and Voronezh, as well as the occupied areas of Crimea and Kherson Oblast. The Russian military has already figured out where the Ukrainian military’s air defense radar is deployed and which areas are blind spots. Ukraine is suffering significant damage from Russian military airstrikes that took advantage of the gap.

Projectiles flying from multiple directions at the same time can be responded to to some extent if sufficient radar is available. If a blind spot occurs due to monitoring in only one direction with radar, 2 to 3 additional radars are secured to monitor all directions at 360 degrees. Once Russia’s Kh-101 cruise missile or Shahed drone is detected by radar, it can be intercepted not only with missiles, but also with anti-aircraft artillery and even infantry weapons. However, Russia has recently begun deploying ‘game-changing’ weapons that are difficult to intercept, let alone detect and track using radar. It is the Kh-22 ‘Burya’, a monster missile created during the former Soviet Union to attack American aircraft carriers.

The Kh-22, called AS-4 ‘Kitchen’ in the United States and NATO, is a large missile mounted on Russia’s large strategic bomber Tu-95MS or supersonic bomber Tu-22M. This missile is 11.6m long, 0.92m wide, and has a launch weight of 5 tons, making it truly monstrous in size. Considering that the Western world’s standard air-to-ship missile AGM-84 ‘Harpoon’, which is also operated by the Korean Air Force, is about 4.6m long, 0.34m in diameter, and weighs 550kg, it is a weapon that goes far beyond common sense. The reason Kh-22 has become so large is due to the desperate circumstances of the former Soviet Union. At the time, the Soviet Union realized the power of the U.S. aircraft carrier strike group during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Afterwards, in case of emergency, the need for powerful weapons that could destroy US aircraft carrier battle groups from a distance before they approached the Soviet Union mainland was highlighted. Accordingly, the Soviet leadership instructed its development team to produce a missile with flight performance and destructive power that could not be blocked by any air defense system. The result is the Kh-22.

American Patriot anti-aircraft missile. Ukraine possesses a large number of Western-made anti-aircraft weapons, including Patriot, but is unable to prevent Russian hypersonic missile attacks. [뉴시스]

The initial Kh-22 had a flight speed of Mach 3.5 to 4, but the improved Kh-32 currently being deployed reaches Mach 5, which is in the hypersonic range. The range was initially about 600 km, but through repeated improvements it has now reached 1,000 km. Additionally, the Kh-22 can carry nuclear warheads. The 350kt nuclear warhead mounted on the original model is powerful enough to blow up not only a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group, but also a fairly small or medium-sized city. Even without carrying a nuclear weapon, the 1-ton high-explosive warhead and high kinetic energy resulting from ultra-high-speed flight exert tremendous destructive power. In June 2022, a large shopping mall in Kremenchuk, central Ukraine, was hit by this missile and collapsed, causing as many as 77 casualties.

Russia is using this missile, originally intended to strike warships, to attack ground targets throughout Ukraine. Since the start of the war on February 24, 2022, Russia has launched 300 Kh-22s against Ukraine until last year. On December 31 last year, Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuri Inat said, “We tried to intercept the Kh-22 with all types of air defense equipment the Ukrainian military has, but all 300 attempts failed.” They attempted to intercept the Kh-22 with various air defense equipment, including Patriot PAC-2/3, NASAMS, SAMP/T, IRIS-T SLM, and S-300, but were not successful even once. This is proof that it is impossible to defend against supersonic and hypersonic weapons at the Mach 4-5 level with existing Western-made air defense systems. Regular subsonic cruise missiles or drones are relatively easy to intercept because they are slow. In the case of tactical ballistic missiles, even if the speed is high, when the maximum altitude is reached, the expected fall course can be calculated using radar and an interceptor can be fired. This means that a certain degree of response is possible with a modern air defense system. This is why the Ukrainian military was able to intercept the Russian military’s Iskander-type ballistic missiles and Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles several times.

However, responding to hypersonic and hypersonic weapons is a completely different problem. This type of weapon flies at low altitudes at speeds of Mach 4 to 5. Scud C-type missiles fly at an altitude of 100 to 150 km, and Iskander-type missiles fly at an altitude of 40 to 60 km, making them easy to detect even from a long distance. On the other hand, the Kh-22 flies for a range of 12 to 22 km, then drastically lowers its altitude at the end stage and even changes its approach course. Therefore, compared to ballistic missiles, early detection and calculation of future location are not easy. This is why Russia, China, the United States, as well as Iran and North Korea, are working hard to develop long-range strike weapons capable of hypersonic flight in the atmosphere at around Mach 5.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (second from the left, front row) and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un (second from the right, front row) are touring Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome in September last year. [뉴시스]

Responding to hypersonic and hypersonic weapons is not a problem in a distant country. Korea has established a ‘Korean Missile Defense System’, but the M-SAM currently in service, the L-SAM and SM-6 that will soon be introduced cannot intercept high supersonic or hypersonic weapons of around Mach 5. North Korea has developed at least two types of hypersonic weapons and completed test launches. It has proven its hypersonic flight capability and orbit correction ability through test launches and has declared actual deployment. Accordingly, the United States is accelerating the development schedule for hypersonic interception weapons and is also hastening the deployment of the new SM-6 missile to be operated on Aegis ships. The hypersonic interception weapon that the United States is planning to introduce is a prerequisite for linking with the latest Aegis system and missile defense (MD) network. In other words, if Korea wants to introduce this missile, it is inevitable that it will join the US-led MD network. The threat of hypersonic weapons not only from North Korea but also from China is a clear reality facing South Korea. I hope that our military authorities will not dismiss the lessons of Ukraine’s anti-supersonic and hypersonic air defense warfare of ‘300 battles and 300 losses’ as a story from a distant country.

Shin In-gyun, CEO of Independent Defense Network

[이 기사는 주간동아 1423호에 실렸습니다]

Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.