An analysis has been made that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is as dangerous as before the Korean War and that North Korea’s Workers’ Party General Secretary Kim Jong-un may have made the decision to go to war.
On the 11th (local time), researcher Robert Carlin and professor Siegfried Hecker of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies wrote in an article for 38 North, a media outlet specializing in North Korea, saying, “The situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since early June 1950.” “It may sound dramatic, but we believe Kim Jong-un has made the strategic decision to go to war like his grandfather did in 1950,” he wrote.
He added, “It is unknown when and how Kim Jong-un plans to pull the trigger, but North Korea’s provocations have gone far beyond the level of routine warnings from South Korea, the United States, and Japan.”
They believed that when negotiations broke down at the North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in February 2019, Secretary General Kim gave up on normalizing relations with the United States, and that North Korea policy changed thereafter.
They said, “Through the North Korea-US summit, Kim Jong-un tried to realize what his grandfather had envisioned and what his father had attempted but never achieved: normalization of relations with the United States.” They added, “He poured everything into the Hanoi North Korea-US summit. “He was shocked when it failed,” he wrote.
He continued, “Clear signs that a decision (to war) had been made appeared in the summer and fall of 2021,” and explained that North Korea decided to go to war due to changes in the international landscape, including cooperation with China and Russia.
They emphasized, “From early 2023, the topic of war preparation began to appear regularly in high-level North Korean statements for domestic consumption,” and “Kim Jong-un even revived the expression ‘preparation for a revolutionary war for unification.’”
In addition, South Korea and the United States try to maintain the status quo on the Korean Peninsula through strong deterrence and minor provocations and believe that they can stop North Korea, but they explain that this belief can actually be toxic.
They said, “If, as we expected, Kim Jong-un was convinced that there was no way to talk with the United States despite decades of effort, the end would be a military solution using the arsenal,” adding, “And even if South Korea and the United States emerge victorious in the ensuing war, “Victory will be hollow,” he wrote.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.