In the state of Iowa, amid terrifying temperatures of 30 degrees below zero, The electoral race for the White House formally begins this Monday: In a Republican election in which Donald Trump overwhelmingly dominates for now, Americans will vote there for the first time to elect a president, a process that will culminate on November 5, 2024 with the general election.
The Republicans of this rural north-central state They will be the first to vote for their party’s presidential nomination in a process that is not a common election with typical school polls: they are called caucus and it is a method so slow and old that some consider it anachronistic.
It works like this: representatives of each party gather in gyms, churches or fire stations and try to convince their neighbors of the merits of each candidate. People vote on pieces of paper and candidates who get few votes lose weight and reach the majority until there is a winner. It can be resolved quickly, but can last several hours.
Iowa traditionally marks the start of in-state voting which will define the candidates who will compete in November. But the Democrats, who have Joe Biden as their candidate without significant internal contenders, have decided to postpone the voting date in that state and only the Republicans will vote on Monday.
According to polls, Trump is one of the favorites in Iowa, with 48% approvalin front of the more moderate former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley with 20% and the ultra-conservative governor of Florida Ron De Santis, with 16%, according to a Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom poll released Saturday.
But it is not excluded Haley or De Santis provide a surprise and collect more votes than expected: if Trump does not achieve a landslide victory in Iowa, he risks appearing weaker for the rest of the primaries. Starting next week, candidates will continue to compete in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina in February and so on until all 50 states in the union finish voting in June and then announce the nominee.
Trump’s lead in Iowa is large. The enthusiasm of his supporters is fervent. And unlike 2016, Trump has a very well-funded and organized campaign in the state. The fatally cold climate –The forecast for the capital Des Moines is a low of -30 degrees and a high of -19 degreesThis Monday – will likely benefit mobilized voters like Trump’s more than Haley’s moderates.
Trump, 77 years old, He knows that the first shot is important. He wants to confirm his broad leadership and consolidate domestic victory as soon as possible before pending trials begin on several charges, including conspiracy to overturn the election, some of which are scheduled for March.
On the democratic side the picture is simpler, but not easy. Biden is running practically without major rivals at domestic level and there is no doubt that he will be the official candidate. But the shadows linked to his age – if he won he would assume the presidency at 82 – and his physical condition act as a counterweight to his campaign.
National polls measuring Trump against Biden give Trump a slim one-point lead, as compiled by RealClearPolitics. The Democrat would have more problems if his rival were not the tycoon: Haley would beat Biden by 8 points and DeSantis by 3.
Despite the fact that the economy has improved substantially since the end of the pandemic, with markets growing, with a post-covid GDP that has grown more than in other powers, that fuel prices have fallen, that inflation has fallen for more than since 9 % at 3.4% annually and that the Federal Reserve has forecast three rate cuts in 2024, The feeling among Americans is that Biden is not managing the economy well. 58.5% disapprove of the president in this regard.
Another front that also complicates Biden in the elections is the international one. Unconditional support for Israel in the war against Hamas is not widely shared by Americans, nor is the constant sending of money to Ukraine. 58.5% of citizens, according to RealClearPolitics, do not share his vision of foreign policy.
Source: Clarin
Mary Ortiz is a seasoned journalist with a passion for world events. As a writer for News Rebeat, she brings a fresh perspective to the latest global happenings and provides in-depth coverage that offers a deeper understanding of the world around us.