However, since the election result is not to the point of despair, there is no possibility of it escalating into a crisis or conflict.
The Korean Central News Agency reported on the 15th that China is expected to further expand its political, economic, and military pressure on Taiwan as Lai Ching-de, the Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate for Taiwan’s independence, won the presidential election.
Citing local cross-Strait relations experts, the media said this, and in particular, China will appoint President-elect Lai Qingde as president on May 20 after the two sessions of the National People’s Congress (National People’s Congress) and the National People’s Political Consultative Conference (CCPP) close in March. It was observed that the pressure and checks targeting Taiwan would reach their peak before taking office.
Zhang Wuyue, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Danjiang University, said that the first regular press conference of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council on January 13, the voting day, was an important part of examining the direction of China’s Taiwan policy in relation to this presidential election. He pointed out the 2024 Taiwan Work Conference, the National People’s Congress and the CPPCC, and the inauguration of a new president on May 20.
According to Director Zhang Wuyue, although Candidate Lai won the presidential election, the Democratic Progressive Party failed to secure a majority in the legislative document and fell to the second largest party. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office immediately issued a statement saying that the Democratic Progressive Party does not represent the mainstream public sentiment in Taiwan and that the trend of unification is not supported. He emphasized that it would not be able to stop it.
Zhang Wuyue analyzed that this reaction came from China’s judgment that although elected Lai’s vote rate was only 40% and the Democratic Progressive Party’s legislative members were far below the majority, it was disappointed, but not to the point of despair.
Therefore, the Chinese side believes that there is no need to significantly change the basic tenor of its Taiwan policy.
However, Zhang Wuyue points out that we have no choice but to be cautious about external interference, such as the U.S. delegation’s visit to Taipei immediately after the Taiwan election.
The American Association of Taiwan (AIT), the equivalent of the U.S. Embassy, announced that former Secretary of State James Steinberg and former White House National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley had invited and visited Taiwan as individuals on the 14th. AIT President Laura Rosenberger accompanied them.
Zhang Wuyue predicted that he would focus on this and criticize it at the first Taiwan Affairs Office regular press conference after Taiwan’s presidential election. This is because China is highly suspicious of the purpose of the US delegation’s visit.
Zhang Wuyue also emphasized that attention should be paid to the Taiwan Work Conference convened just before the opening of the two sessions on March 4-5.
Zhang Wuyue observed that after Taiwan’s presidential and general elections are over, China will not make any new major declarations or changes regarding its Taiwan policy, saying that it will need some time to thoroughly analyze it.
Still, we need to look at the important reinforcement of Wang Huning, a member of the Political Standing Committee, who is the vice-chairman of the Taiwan Democratic Leadership Group that oversees Taiwan affairs at the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China.
At the two sessions, the focus is on whether President Xi Jinping (習近平) and General Secretary of the Party will issue an important statement regarding Taiwan and whether the National People’s Congress will approve the enforcement regulations of the Anti-Division National Law established as the basis for military unification.
Considering these trends surrounding both sides of the Straits, Zhang Wuyue expressed concern that after the two sessions and before the inauguration of the President on May 20, China will strengthen its political and diplomatic offensive as well as military threats and increase economic and trade pressure.
Although China fully anticipated Candidate Lai Ching-de’s victory in the presidential election and the result will not affect structural changes in cross-Strait relations, it has customarily used offensives and pressure to clarify China’s position and will toward Taiwan both internally and externally. Zhang Yuyue predicted that it would increase.
Zhang Wuyue added that China’s purpose in escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait is to ensure that President-elect Lai Ching-de’s inauguration speech approaches the Maginot Line, which is acceptable to Xi Jinping’s leadership.
In addition, as the U.S. presidential election heats up and communication between the U.S. and China resumes, Zhang Wuyue predicted that Taiwan’s election results will not lead to a major crisis or conflict, although China will continue to pressure and check Taiwan.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.