Compared to 2010, housing demand in 2040 will be 33%↓, supply will be 50%↓.
Ghost homes increase after death of elderly residents, construction manpower is lacking
The number of foreign buyers increased… ‘Japanese empty house renovation content’ popular
Due to the low birth rate and aging population in Japan, the number of ‘ghost homes’ that have been untouched for a long time is increasing significantly, and the number of houses where people can live is decreasing, worsening the housing supply problem. On the other hand, the number of cases where some foreign buyers purchase houses at low prices and renovate them is increasing.
The Nihon Keizai Shimbun predicted on the 15th that by 2040, the supply of new housing in Japan will be far less than demand. The Nomura Research Institute, a private think tank, said, “Japan’s housing demand in 2040 will decrease by 33% compared to 2010, but supply will plummet by more than 50%.” Demand for housing decreases due to overall population decline, but housing supply decreases faster.
◆’Akiya (空家)’, which creates ghost towns and turns cities into slums.
Behind this, there is the ‘Akiya’ problem. A ghost house that has been abandoned due to the owner’s death or heirs refusing to maintain it is called ‘Akiya (empty house)’. As the aging population in Japan intensifies, the number of abandoned homes abandoned after the death of elderly residents has increased. Due to population decline, the number of construction workers naturally decreased, and the fact that the shortage of manpower was more severe in provinces where the Akiya problem was more severe was also cited as a cause.
It is known that Akiya is very cheap, but demand is low due to taxes and repair costs. According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as of 2018, there were about 8.5 million empty houses in Japan, or 14% of the total. Nomura Research Institute predicted that 31% of all homes will be empty by 2038.
The increase in Akiya leads to the formation of ‘ghost towns’ and acceleration of urban slums. The 2014 Masuda Report, which addressed the issue of local extinction in Japan, predicted that 896 local governments in Japan would disappear by 2040.
To resolve Akiya, the Japanese government is implementing various policies, such as tax reductions and subsidies for purchasing empty houses. Kyoto City, which has the most aging population, announced plans to become the first city in the region to impose a tax on 15,000 empty houses starting in 2026. The purpose is to revitalize housing renovation and sales to prevent urban extinction. Methods are also being used to revitalize the region by using Akiya as lodging facilities, cafes, beer factories, etc.
Nomura Research Institute said that there will be changes in the way houses are built and remodeled in the future. As construction manpower is lacking and housing supply is low, “housing companies will prioritize easy construction over details.”
◆Some foreign buyers purchase houses at ‘cheap prices’ and renovate them
Business Insider reported on the 14th (local time) that the number of cases of foreigners purchasing empty houses in Japan and renovating them is increasing. Buyers from countries such as Europe and the United States, where real estate is expensive, are turning to Japan, where they can purchase homes at affordable prices. Even on YouTube, Japanese empty house remodeling content is gaining popularity, recording a high number of views.
It is known that most foreign buyers purchase Japanese homes for home ownership rather than investment. Currently, Japan is actively encouraging home purchases by foreigners, including not restricting them from purchasing real estate.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.