“Until May 20, Taiwan must pay attention to the ‘four viewpoints.’” (Taiwan Central News Agency)
When anti-China Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-de was elected in Taiwan’s presidential election on the 13th, the predicted cross-Strait conflict (China and Taiwan) is already serious. May 20th, as pointed out by local media, is the day when President-elect Lai’s inauguration ceremony will be held. With major political events scheduled in China and Taiwan over the next four months, it is a gloomy prospect that a series of strong waves will hit even before the president-elect enters the presidential residence.
Warning lights are already raining down. On the 15th, President-elect Lai met with an unofficial U.S. delegation, including former Secretary of State James Steinberg, and requested “continued support from the U.S.,” which is already irritating China. On the same day, the Pacific island nation of Nauru announced that it would “sever diplomatic relations with Taiwan and establish diplomatic ties with China,” hinting at a strange atmosphere. The day before, Wang Yi, Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office of the Chinese Communist Party and Minister of Foreign Affairs, also issued a hard-line message saying, “Pushing for Taiwan independence is a path to death.”
The first wave is the first annual meeting of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council (Executive Department), scheduled to be held immediately after the Lunar New Year holiday next month. The Taiwan Affairs Office, which oversees Taiwan-related affairs, prepares a draft of China’s Taiwan policy for this year at this meeting. In other words, you can guess China’s future moves by looking at what policies and expressions it puts forth here.
In that sense, the statement released by Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to Africa on the 14th can be a key to gauging this. He said, “Taiwan’s local elections are China’s local affairs. “There is only ‘one China’ in the world,” he warned, adding, “Pushing for Taiwan independence is a path that destroys peace and stability.”
The National People’s Congress of China (the equivalent of the National People’s Congress and National Assembly) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which are held for a day or two in early March, are often combined and called the ‘two sessions’. There is even a possibility that China will attempt to exert strong pressure around the two sessions, the Chinese Communist Party’s largest annual political event.
The first is the CPPCC, where experts from all walks of life plan Taiwan policies and report them to the National People’s Congress. Afterwards, the National People’s Congress can finalize major related policies and announce separate statements. Above all, President Xi Jinping’s speech is a key event, and it necessarily includes mention of Taiwan.
Last year, only the usual statement was made, “We will oppose Taiwan’s separation and independence and will unwaveringly pursue the unification of the country,” but this year, the tone is likely to completely change. The option of exerting military pressure, such as mobilizing the People’s Liberation Army to surround Taiwan, cannot be ruled out.
The last time is before or after President-elect Lai’s inauguration ceremony on May 20th. Immediately after the presidential election, China already defined that “the Democratic Progressive Party, which returned to power, does not represent the will of the majority of Taiwanese people.” They may use this as an excuse to call President-elect Lai’s inauguration itself into question. For example, if a foreign envoy attends the inauguration ceremony, China may take issue with it, calling it ‘interference in internal affairs’.
Nauru’s declaration of severance of diplomatic relations with Taiwan provides a clue to this context. Although it is a small island country, with Nauru excluded, only 12 countries remain with Taiwan, including Guatemala, Paraguay, the Vatican, and Palau. By further reducing the number of countries with diplomatic ties before the inauguration ceremony, President-elect Lai’s position can be further narrowed. At a meeting with the unofficial U.S. delegation, which included former National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley and Laura Rosenberger, president of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT), President-elect Lai appealed for support, saying, “Taiwan is now the Taiwan of the world.”
Beijing =
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.