North Korea, China have already chosen the path of a buffer state and dictatorship arsenal
In the Taiwan conflict, China may support Korea and Japan by threatening them with nuclear weapons.
Use of nuclear weapons to deter US intervention… Possibility of accidental launch
Robert Gallucci, a professor of foreign affairs at Georgetown University who served as the U.S. administration’s special envoy for North Korean nuclear weapons, advised that the U.S. administration should begin to normalize relations with North Korea, saying that a nuclear war could break out in Northeast Asia this year.
In a recent contribution to the National Interest (NI), Professor Gallucci warned, “North Korea has taken a different path in recent years than it has taken over the past several decades.”
Professor Gallucci pointed out that North Korea has shown no interest in long-term negotiations with the United States over the past three years. He analyzed that the international situation was also reorganized due to the rise of China and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In the midst of this, it was diagnosed that North Korea has chosen to maintain relations with China, acting as a buffer state for China, while actively improving relations with Russia to become a kind of ‘dictatorship arsenal’.
In this environment, he warned, “it may be wise to consider the possibility that we might not be so lucky,” and “we should at least consider that a nuclear war could break out in Northeast Asia this year.”
Professor Gallucci presented two scenarios. One is the Taiwan crisis, in which North Korea supports China by making nuclear threats to U.S. assets and allies in Northeast Asia, regardless of China’s support, in a situation where China and the United States are in a resolute standoff over Taiwan.
Professor Gallucci analyzed that since South Korea and Japan, which are U.S. allies, do not possess nuclear weapons, in this case, even if Korea has no interest in getting involved in the Taiwan conflict, it will inevitably end up relying on the U.S. extended deterrence.
Another scenario is that North Korea uses nuclear weapons to force South Korea to follow North Korea’s instructions and ensure a deterrent to US intervention.
In this case, he pointed out that the important calculation is not what the United States will actually do, but what the North Korean leadership believes the United States will do.
North Korea may believe that the development of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capabilities will deter U.S. attempts to change the North Korean regime and contribute to weakening the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence, and this calculation may determine whether nuclear war will break out.
He suggested that other scenarios in which a nuclear war begins regardless of the failure of deterrence should be considered, and that the possibility of North Korea launching nuclear weapons accidentally or without permission should also be considered.
Professor Gallucci pointed out, “In any case, North Korea is a relative novice in this ‘game’ compared to other nuclear weapons states,” and added, “We should not be convinced that the probability of nuclear war is low based on North Korea’s rhetoric about its willingness to use nuclear weapons.”
He expressed concern that, in the context of a competitive and hostile political environment, we need to reexamine our foreign policy as nuclear weapons are increasing in Northeast Asia, adding, “We must at least consider the risks we must take when using diplomacy as a last resort.”
He pointed out that the United States should pursue normalization of relations with North Korea and make denuclearization a long-term goal, not the first step in the process. It was suggested that issues in which North Korea had shown interest in the past, such as sanctions relief, the nature of ROK-US military exercises, and improvement of North Korean human rights policies, could be brought to the initial discussion table.
However, he acknowledged that now may not be the right time as this year’s U.S. presidential election is ahead, and said, “It is a simple but not easy problem.”
Professor Gallucci served as the U.S. ambassador and special envoy to the U.S. State Department on the non-proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction, and served as the U.S. chief negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis in 1994, leading the ‘Geneva Agreement’ between the U.S. and North Korea.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.