Trump wins by 51% in Iowa, the first primary… Proving the ‘trend theory’

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Former U.S. President Donald Trump is waving to supporters at the Republican Party caucus held in Iowa on the 15th (local time). 2024.01.16. [디모인(아이오와주)=AP/뉴시스]

“It is time for everyone in America to ‘come together.’ “The Republican Party and the Democratic Party must also come together.”

Former U.S. President Donald Trump won 51% of the votes on the 15th (local time) in the central Iowa caucuses, the first gateway to selecting the opposition Republican Party’s presidential candidate, beating his rivals by a wide margin. After confirming his victory, he appeared with enthusiastic cheers from supporters at the ‘Caucus Night Party’ held in Des Moines, the state capital, and repeatedly emphasized ‘harmony’, unlike his usual appearance of indiscriminately attacking the Joe Biden administration and his Republican primary rivals. did.

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On this day, major media such as the Associated Press and CNN definitively reported the possibility of former President Trump winning first place just 35 minutes after the vote count began. In fact, his victory speech, which received about 30 percentage points more support than runner-up Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (21.2%) and 3rd-place former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley (19.1%), was in fact close to the Republican presidential candidate acceptance speech. The New York Times commented, “It is a surprising revival of Trump’s political career, which was in jeopardy due to judicial risks.”

● Opinion poll approval ratings are high… ‘General theory’ momentum

In addition to the invasion of the Capitol by his supporters in January 2021 after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election, former President Trump was also the first former or incumbent president to be indicted on four criminal charges last year. This put a red light on his path to regaining power, but he expressed confidence that he would be confirmed as the Republican presidential candidate early based on his confidence in a landslide victory in Iowa. He also said of his rivals, Governor DeSantis and former Ambassador Haley, “They both did extremely well. “I want to congratulate him,” he said, praising it in an unusual way.

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The 29.9% point gap in the vote percentage between former President Trump and Governor DeSantis on this day is the largest gap between first and second place candidates in the history of the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus. The previous high was during the 1988 caucuses when then-Senator Bob Dole received 12.8% more than the second-place candidate.

With the vote rate far exceeding the approval rate in recent public opinion polls, the ‘Trump trend theory’ has gained wings. Indian entrepreneur Vivek Rawasmami, who placed fourth in the primary on this day, announced his withdrawal from the primary and declared “support for Trump.”

Former President Trump was confident of a landslide victory even before the Iowa caucuses. In Iowa, 90% of the population of approximately 3.2 million people are white, and because it is an agricultural area where soybeans and corn are the main products, there are many enthusiastic supporters of former President Trump. The so-called ‘Angry Americans’, referring to the low-educated and low-income white people in this area, are considered a stronghold of the Democratic Party and have strong complaints about being marginalized compared to the economically developed large cities on the east and west coasts.

● Rally supporters with ‘Biden judgment theory’

The possibility that former President Trump will have a rematch with President Joe Biden, who is likely to be elected as the Democratic presidential candidate in the November 5 presidential election, is also increasing. Immediately after the results of the caucuses on this day, President Biden said on social media “It is a confrontation with the (Make Great Again) forces,” he said.

Suzy Hook, a Trump supporter who participated in the caucus that day, argued, “The United States has degenerated into a third-class country with a dual judicial system that treats Trump’s prosecution and the Biden family’s corruption differently.” In a survey of voters who participated in the caucus that day, 63% responded that ‘former President Trump is still fit to be president even if he is ultimately found guilty on criminal charges.’ 66% said ‘President Biden’s victory in the 2020 presidential election was not legitimate.’

However, the limitations of former President Trump, who did not receive support from large cities and highly educated people, were also revealed. In major cities in Iowa, such as Des Moines, the gap in vote percentage between former President Trump, Governor DeSantis, and former Ambassador Haley was not large.

2024 US presidential election

Des Moines =

Source: Donga

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