As if we didn’t already have enough to be afraid of…

The world is already plagued by crises, and here may be another one: North Korea is behaving in highly unusual ways, leading some veteran analysts to fear that it is preparing a surprise attack on South Korea and perhaps even Japan and Guam.

I have seen many false alarms since I started covering and visiting North Korea in the 1980s.

I wouldn’t be writing about this last warning if it weren’t for the fact that it comes two particularly credible experts who bluntly concludes that “Kim Jong Un has taken the strategic decision to go to war“.

This is speculation with no hard evidence to back it up and they recognize that this type of prediction is risky.

But one of those experts is Roberto Carlinwho has been analyzing North Korea for the CIA, State Department and other organizations for 50 years.

The other is Siegfried Hecker, Stanford nuclear expert who visited North Korea seven times and had extensive access to that country’s nuclear programs; He is apparently the only American to have had North Korean plutonium in his hands (in a jar).

Carlin and Hecker published their warning in an essay on the site 38 Northfocused on North Korea.

They raised the possibility that North Korea would use its nuclear warheads to attack the region (it is unclear whether its warheads could reach the United States and survive re-entry into the atmosphere).

Carlin and Hecker said they did not know when an attack by Kim, the country’s leader, would occur or what form it might take.

“Will it be an all-out attack?” Carlin asked.

“I have no idea what your army is thinking right now. I suspect they’re making plans and they’re arguing about it. And some of them are saying:

‘This is crazy. We can not do it’.

Others say, “This is what the leader wants and we will do it.”

And in fact, we have enough missiles and nuclear warheads to do it'”.

Just threats?

North Korea is known for its bravado and insults (remember “stupid”?), and my general opinion is that Kim is a pragmatist who uses bombast to negotiate.

Maybe this time it will be like this:

We’ve never really understood what happens to the North Koreans, and maybe they’re just looking for attention.

My inclination would be to dismiss these warnings, if they came from anyone else.

But Carlin and Hecker are professionals who deserve to have their warning taken seriously. Oh really.

It has been evident for some time that something is happening in North Korea.

Kim had pinned his hopes on a summit with the president in 2019 Donald Trump in Hanoi (Vietnam), which collapsed and left Kim humiliated.

For decades, under three leaders, North Korea has sought an agreement with the United States trade, prestige and economic advantages, but now he seems to have given up. Instead he strengthened ties with Russia, It has improved its nuclear capabilities and stepped up its rhetoric.

This week, North Korea announced that it will take much longer Harder with South Korea, which would change its Constitution and its previous reunification policy, and which would not respect traditional border lines.

Kim said his army was preparing for “a great event revolutionary event”a phrase that Carlin said had previously been used to describe the war with South Korea.

Kim has said North Korea does not want war, but suggested it could come:

“The war will terribly destroy the entity called the Republic of Korea” – South Korea’s official name – “and will put an end to its existence. And it will inflict an unimaginably crushing defeat on the United States.”

I reached out to other experts to get their opinions. Joel Witt, Longtime North Korea expert at the State Department, now at the Stimson Centerhe said he takes Carlin and Hecker “extremely seriously.”

Wit said a recent incident in which North Korea fired artillery shells near waters disputed with South Korea “gave me shivers” because it looked like a possible proof of a greater provocation.

The Biden administration did not focus on North Korea for understandable reasons:

You are facing many other urgent crises. It may be too late to start diplomatic dialogue with the North if the latter resolutely renounces the United States, Wit said, adding, however, that China is now so alarmed by North Korea that Beijing could help.

Deborah Fikes, a member of the National Committee on North Korea, a coalition of people with extensive experience in the country, said that many nonprofit organizations that normally maintain working relations with North Korea They couldn’t even get their questions answered.

She is also concerned about the risk of conflict.

Cost-benefit

On the other hand, one reason for skepticism is that it is difficult to imagine how North Korea could benefit from attacking its neighbors.

Carlin and Hecker don’t have a solid answer on this, but they point out that there is a long history of surprise attacks around the world that were surprising precisely because they made no sense to those attacked.

Hecker noted that North Korea is one of only three countries that pose a potential nuclear threat to the United States (the others are Russia and China) and yet North Korea has not received much high-level attention lately.

Should.

What I’ve learned most from covering North Korea is not to make predictions about it.

But it seems prudent for the Biden administration to step up its action diplomatic contacts with North Korea, seek to engage China on this issue at high levels, allocate intelligence resources to better understand North Korean risks, and ensure our military forces are prepared.

None of us know what will happen and it would be wise to be prepared for anything.

c.2024 The New York Times Company