Primaries in the United States: five keys to understanding Trump’s victory in New Hampshire and red alert

New Hampshire, a state in the northeast of the country with a moderate and independent electorate and with high graduation rates, it was the last big chance of former governor Nikki Haley to stop Donald Trump’s bid for the White House. If there was a state capable of giving a turning point to the internal republican race, which is visibly moving in favor of the tycoon, it was precisely this one. But it didn’t happen.

With nearly 90% of votes counted, Trump’s margin of victory as of Wednesday morning was about 11 percentage points against Haley.

Here are some keys to the results and a red flag for Trump.

Road to the nomination

It wasn’t a knockout blow, but the appointment is practically defined

The margin of victory it was minor what Trump expected and the 18 points predicted by the polls. But Trump won in a way decisive Tuesday from 54.7% to 43.2%, the only remaining competition. And he did it surrounded by his old rivals, who in the last week either withdrew or supported him.

No Republican candidates He won the first two states and then lost the presidential nomination, a fact that Trump himself underlined in his victory speech on Tuesday night, also recalling his first victory in Iowa.

What surprisingly the Republican primaries closed It was President Joe Biden. Hours after the election closed, he said in a statement that “it is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee and the message to the country is that the stakes could not be more important. “Our democracy, our personal freedoms,” Biden said, already in campaign mode.

Haley continues to fight, but the race is difficult

Despite everything, he continues the race for the nomination because he is a former governor of South Carolina and former ambassador to the United Nations He said he won’t come down and this will continue at least until the primaries of his state, on February 24, even if in his constituency Trump is also leading the polls, as in most of the country.

Haley stubbornly continues to fight to survive, even as she has a road looming extremely complicated. He will not run in Nevada to focus on South Carolina, where party heavyweights support Trump, who is first in the polls up to 50 points. Trump’s campaign strategists Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita predicted that Haley would be “demolished and embarrassed” in South Carolina if she didn’t drop out of the race before then.

Haley’s thesis for the future is that “under Trump the Republicans lost almost every election”, referring to the legislative elections of 2018 and 2022 Already the 2020 presidential election. And that the Democrats prefer to compete against the tycoon. 52 years old, he also says he needsto “a new generation” in the White House. Trump is 77 and Biden is 81.

Trump wants Haley out now.

The former president wants the nomination right now because You don’t want to spend more time and money. He needs Haley to come down so he can focus the battles that are coming: one against Joe Biden for president and the other in the courts settle your accounts justly.

In fact, on Nevada’s next internal election day, February 8, the Supreme Court is expected to hear oral arguments on Whether the 14th Amendment should remove him from the ballot. Criminal cases are also pending in New York, Georgia, Florida and Michigan on charges ranging from tax fraud to obstruction of justice for obstructing the results of the 2020 election.

Even if Trump’s followers believe that the trials against their leader are over I’m a witch hunt and a “conspiracy of democrats and the judiciary,” a conviction could hurt you between moderates and independents.

Some warning signs for Trump

This was revealed by this Tuesday’s exit polls some red flags for the former president’s campaign. Haley won 29% of the party’s moderate votes. 44% said Trump cannot be president if he is convicted of a crime. He was also massively supported by abortion supporters (69%), while Trump supports banning him.

Abortion will be a central theme in the Democratic campaign. Haley also won 79% of the votes of those who say Biden legitimately won the 2020 election, showing that there is a good portion of Republican voters who believe that Trump lies about fraud.

All this indicates that, although Trump may gain internal positions, will have some difficulties in attracting the more moderate vote, crucial to winning the November 5 general election. For now Biden and Trump They are tied in the polls but the vote of that part of independents and Republicans who do not feel comfortable with the tycoon It will be decisive.

Biden won his election in New Hampshire

The Democratic primary was also held in New Hampshire, but without voting under Biden’s name due to disagreements with the local chapter of the party.

Although the president has secured his party’s nomination, in recent days presidential activists have asked that Biden’s name be handwritten on the ballots, because it would be a serious blow if he lost in that state to unknown candidates such as Congressman Dean Phillips and the writer Marianne Williamson. Finally Biden won with more than 60% of the vote.