MAGA is based on fear, not reality

A few days ago, Kristi Noem, Republican governor of South Dakota and inflexible supporter of MAGA, sometimes mentioned as a possible running mate for Donald Trumpwarned that the president Joe Biden it is “remaking” America, transforming us into Europe.

The first thing I thought was:

So will it increase our life expectancy by five or six years?

In context, however, it was clear that Noem believes, or hopes her audience will believe, that Europe is a theater of chaos caused by hordes of immigrants.

It turns out that last year I spent a lot of time walking around various European cities and none of them were hell.

Yes, Europe in general has had problems with immigrants and immigration has become a hot political issue.

And yes, Europe’s economic recovery has lagged behind that of the United States.

But the visions of a devastated continent for immigration they are a fantasy.

Yet such fantasies are the common currency of right-wing American politics today.

Remember the days when pundits solemnly declared that Trumpism was caused by “economic anxiety“?

Well, despite a booming economy, there’s still a lot of justified anxiety out there, reflecting the real struggles of many people:

The United States remains a nation plagued by inequality, insecurity, and injustice.

But the anxiety that drives MAGA is not motivated by reality.

On the contrary, it is driven by dystopian visions which are not related to real experience.

That is, right now, Republican political strategy depends largely on scaring voters who are personally doing relatively well – not just according to official statistics, but according to their own reports – by telling them that other people are doing terrible things.

This is especially evident when talking about the US economy, which had a very good, indeed almost miraculously good, 2023.

Economic growth not only defied widespread predictions of an impending recession, but also far exceeded expectations; Inflation has collapsed and is more or less at the level expected by the Fed.

And people are noticing it in their lives:

63% of Americans have their say the financial situation is good or very good.

However, a few days ago, Nikki Haley declared that “we have a ruined economy and runaway inflation.”

And the Republicans who listened to her probably believed her.

According to YouGov, nearly 72% of Republicans say our 3-2 economy – about 3% growth and 2% inflation – is getting worse, while just over 6% say it is getting better.

Again, this negative verdict does not reflect personal experience.

In December YouGov asked Americans to rate 2023 overall.

Republicans said the year was horrible for the nation, with 76% saying the year was bad or terrible.

However, interestingly, 69% of Republicans – nearly the same percentage – said the year was good, good or great for them personally.

Now, that latest survey wasn’t specifically limited to the state of the economy and presumably also reflected things like perceptions of crime.

But the crime has dropped significantly in 2023, which in a rational world would have strengthened good economics to foster a sense that things are getting better.

But the world, especially the MAGA world, is not rational.

And it is a long-standing observation that Americans tend to say that national crime is rising even when it is falling, and even when they admit that it is falling where they live.

Again, these False Perceptions They are strongly associated with partisanship, with a surprising willingness among Republicans to believe things that aren’t true.

Falsely believing that Europe is a continent on the brink of ruin is one thing (even though millions of Americans visit Europe and therefore have the opportunity to see it with their own eyes every year).

It’s much harder to justify the belief that New York, one of the safest big cities in the United States, is some sort of urban desert.

After all, it is estimated that more than 50 million Americans They visited the Big Apple last year and many people who haven’t visited New York know someone who has or, myself, lives here.

However, only 22% of Republicans believe the city is safe to visit or live in.

The destruction of New York raises the question of how much MAGA supporters are willing to ignore the evidence of their own eyes.

People buy petrol all the time; when Trump claims that “gas prices are now $5, $6, $7, even $8 a gallon,” about double the price clearly displayed on large billboards across the country,

Do your followers believe you?

And then, of course, there’s the pandemic. COVIDwhere MAGA politicization of vaccines appears to have contributed to higher death rates among Republicans.

What does this say about America’s future?

It can’t be good. A large segment of our body politic has, in effect, joined a cult of personality whose beliefs are almost impervious to reality.

How did it happen to us?

The truth is, I don’t know.

But you can’t seriously talk about the state of America without acknowledging the pervasiveness of the fear-based MAGA worldview.

c.2024 The New York Times Company