“Refusal of order to kill civilians” Desertion continues
Military forces are defeated by resistance forces and are on the defensive
Support for both sides, China’s attitude is the variable
“There is no reason for soldiers to point guns at citizens. But we had to do it.”
Myanmar soldier Thant Jin Woo (30) served as a sniper and deserted in August last year. He could no longer follow orders from his superiors to kill civilians. He, who plans to join the anti-military forces, confessed in an interview with the British daily Guardian on the 29th of last month, “I hope I can change the direction of my bullet.”
February 1 marks three years since Myanmar’s Supreme Commander Min Aung Hlaing (68) launched a coup. According to Myanmar human rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP), more than 4,400 people have lost their lives under military tyranny. However, the military has recently been on the defensive after losing a series of battles with resistance forces.
Commander Hlaing staged a coup on February 1, 2021, in protest of his defeat in the general election. State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi (79), a ‘symbol of democratization,’ was imprisoned and a national emergency declared. The democratic camp responded by forming a provisional government, the National Unity Government (NUG), and creating a military organization, the People’s Defense Force (PDF). Minority armed groups also joined forces, and the situation escalated into a civil war.
In particular, the ‘brotherly alliance’ of ethnic armed groups such as the Arakan Army (AA), Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), and Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) harassed the military. Last month, they also occupied the Laukai region in northern Shan State, which borders China. In the south, the Karen armed group Karen National Union (KNU) is strong. “The military faced simultaneous attacks in 12 of Myanmar’s 14 provinces,” said Ye Myo Hein, executive director of the Tagaung Institute of Political Science.
However, it is difficult to predict the victory of the resistance forces hastily. This is due to the tendencies of ethnic armed groups. In Myanmar, each of the 135 ethnic groups wants independence. Foreign Affairs (FA), a diplomatic magazine, analyzed, “From the perspective of ethnic minorities, there will naturally be suspicions that there will be a return to the ‘Burmese-centrism’ of the era of Suu Kyi’s rule.”
A big variable is what attitude China, which has supported both sides simultaneously, will take. The Brotherhood’s occupation of Laukai was largely influenced by China’s connivance. Laukai is a base for online crimes such as voice phishing, from which Chinese people have suffered greatly. Sun Yun, a senior China researcher at the Stimson Center, an American think tank, explained to the Guardian, “The Brotherhood took advantage of China’s dissatisfaction with the military’s failure to properly crack down on online crime as an opportunity to attack the military.”
Advisor Suu Kyi, who was sentenced to 27 years in prison after the coup, was even blocked from communicating with her family. Last November, the Voice of America (VOA) reported, “His health has deteriorated due to periodontitis.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.