Nicolás Maduro, from the failure of Essequibo to the Nicaraguan grotesque

The political brutality of Chavismo is usually a measure of its weakness. The formula would indicate that as the chances of survival decrease, authoritarian common sense of the Venezuelan experiment.

This has been the case for the last 25 years of national control by this force that pretends to be revolutionary and libertarian so that violations are allowed which are not accepted by regimes with a right-wing public profile. This is what just happened, in the midst of an overwhelming Latin American silence, with the Chavista Supreme Court’s ratification of the ban on the main opposition leaders, including the unifying candidate of that constituency, María Corina Machado.

The desperate nature of the offensive can be seen from this step he ruined the strategy woven by Chavismo to weaken the investment-hungry regime with a rapprochement with the United States, which in October had obtained broad relief from North American sanctions, the gateway for business.

But now the autocracy has injected itself with a considerable dose of the despotic Nicaraguan formula embraced by the regime’s toughest wing led by former captain Diosdado Cabello. Reports of coup plots and tales of assassinations with the CIA, of course!, conspiring also returned. Tricks to justify everything. A family menu.

The resumption of the initiative by that sector, even more obscurantist than the others, is the consequence of a realistic resignation. It is the first time that Chavismo has been able to participate to the collapse of the building built by Hugo Chávez since the last year of the last century.

One of the attempts to reverse this panorama has been recent nationalist revolt of the centuries-old dispute over the sovereignty of Essequibo, a request that all Venezuelans have shared since the cradle. This oil, gas and mining-rich territory is under the administration of the nearby former British colony of Guyana.

Falklands and Kuwait

The case bears some resemblance to the Argentine drama over the Malvinas, even though Guyana is a country that gained independence from London in 1966. Another key difference is that the dispute is judged by the UN International Court in The Hague , which is expected to be issued this year. . But perhaps we find the most interesting similarity with Dictator Saddam Hussein’s 1990 attempt to conquer Kuwait and try to escape bankruptcy with the oil from that territory.

Like the Iraqi satrap, Maduro has tried to put out the window the prospect of a Venezuela reborn thanks to the economic power promised by the assault on its neighbor. In 2022, Guyana grew by 57.8% and another 39.2% last year, no less!, thanks to Essequibo. This mirage that he combined with a chauvinistic inflammationon the style of Galtieri with the Malvinas, which Maduro had no doubt would keep him in power, thus conditioning the opening on his terms.

It didn’t work, obviously. The most significant step on that broken ladder was the referendum of 3 December in which the regime called for support for Venezuelan rights on the territory and transform it into a province with the deployment of a victorious military force. They devalued the positive vote of that Sunday. But people completely avoided the polls.

Less than 10% of the 20.6 million registered voters would have voted. A much smaller number than the disciplined participants in the internal competition in June of that year that crowned Corina Machado. A devastating oil test for the regime. Not long before, in 2022, they had a preview when the nomenklatura He received a harsh slap in Barinas, Chávez’s home state, where the opposition won. With the aggravating circumstance that the same Tribunal, aligned with the Palace of Miraflores, annulled that election and ordered its repetition. Once again and with other figures the opponents won.

Rapprochement with the United States made sense for both sides. He mounted the global crisis due to the war against Ukraine based on the enormous Venezuelan oil wealth. Chavismo contemplated its own emergencies. The country has lost half its GDP in the last decade, and oil production plummeted to less than 700,000 barrels a day, barely enough for local needs.

The collapse of the only box that supplied dollars blocked the cycle of the exchange rate system He made his fortune among the exploiters of the regime who sold the foreign currency produced from crude oil on the black market. The lucrative business of smuggling petrol to Brazil and Colombia, which relied on subsidized fuel prices, has gone down the drain. Reversing this dark landscape required income. Urgently.

Dollarization and opening to the private sector, carried out by vice president Delcy Rodríguez, Cabello’s close opponent, but protected by the powerful first lady Cilia Flores, was the most serious attempt to reverse the economic nightmare. It has partly managed to recover supplies and reduce inflation, albeit with a significant social cost and with internal struggles due to the “right” government proposed by the old leaders of the regime.

The opening of the sector had its reward when Washington announced, in October and for six months, the lifting of sanctions imposed after Maduro’s disputed re-election in May 2018. Caracas was suddenly filled with oil businessmen from all over the world. There was also a cross-release of prisoners: eight Americans left Venezuela.

The secrets of Alex Saab

Washington, in exchange, handed over to the “businessman” Alex Saab Morán, a Colombian associate of Maduro, and to another Colombian, Álvaro Enrique Pulid or Vargas, in a “company” based in Mexico, the Grand Group Limited (GGL)which he achieved millionaire contracts with Chavismo.

Pulido Vagas has a history of drug trafficking. Saab, washing. He was arrested in 2020 in Cape Verde and extradited to the United States. Footer file reference: The Grand Limited Group he deposited the miserable sack of food in Venezuela Applause which should constitute help for the poorest population, but It was diverted to the black market at a luxury price. These relationships fuel the old narrative that Maduro is as Colombian as those partners. Imperialism bullshit.

The regime now, having forgotten about Essequibo and its ingratitude, has returned to the path it knows best. He denounced a coup plot, demoted about thirty soldiers and advanced on the opposition, linking it to that alleged sinister operation. At the same time, its officials confirmed that the autocrat will appear in the election parody scheduled for the last half of the year with the argument that It’s justice and not themwhich disqualified the league leaders.

The six-month suspended sentence expires in April. The United States gives the regime that period to review and reconsider the situation. Difficult to do. In the middle, Corina Machado decided ignore the ban and maintain his campaigna wise gesture because it puts her in the spotlight of the world.

But I shouldn’t be naive. In Nicaragua a woman also challenged Daniel Ortega’s dictatorship, Cristiana Chamorro. Like Machado, she was a strong favorite to win the November 2021 election. In June of that year Tyranny’s political police raided her house and arrested her. by “order of a judge”.

Two years later she was expelled to the United States together with two hundred other opponents and her citizenship was taken away. This is the danger today also in Venezuela if the region and not the United States, Brazil in particular, do not end up understanding that it is time to set a limit.

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