The first pictures of what will be the sinking of Moskva, the flagship of the Russian navy, into the waters of the Black Sea. Photo: Twitter.
Russia has control of the Black Sea, but cannot aspire to launch an amphibious operation to shelter from what was left on the Ukrainian coast, because Kyiv could compensate for the lack of a missile fleet.
The Black Sea has been for the Russians, since the beginning of the war, “as their‘ Mare Nostrum, ’” explains Captain Eric Lavault, spokesman for the French navy. Despite the fact that all other coastal countries are members of NATO or aspire to become one someday.
According to British intelligence services, in this sea the russians have marked ships. The two outlet straits of this basin, the Bosporus and the Dardanelles, have been sealed since the end of February by Turkey, in effect of the 1936 Montreux Convention.
Another element that reaffirms the position of the Russians is the recent capture of the port city of Mariupol and their total domination of the Azov Sea coast in the northeast. allows them to feed ”with a very direct logistics chain“to units of fighters in the Donbas from the port of Novorossiysk, Lavault said.
However, the sinking of the Moskva flagship on April 13, claimed by kyiv, created an area of uncertainty about its capacity with what was left on its shores, which in the absence of a navy, can be supported by missile batteries Neptune or Harpoon donated by the United Kingdom.
Moskva, sunk in the war. Photo by AFP
The risks
“This area represents a threat that Russians should consider,” said Igor Delanoë, deputy director of the Franco-Russian Observatory and a Russian naval specialist.
This can be prevented that Moscow has launched an amphibious operation in the Odessa area, to surround Ukraine and unite its troops from the pro-Russian separatist area of Transnistria in Moldova, as a Russian general urged this week .
This hypothesis makes sense but so far seems “unreachable” for the Russians. “You have to see how things develop in the Donbas,” Delanoë estimates.
And above all, “will need to neutralize the batteries on the shore, if they decide to go for this option, ”he said.
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