Majority of voters say they will not lose if Trump is found guilty
If the appellate court appeals again, it is likely to rule on charges of overturning the election before the presidential election day.
If you appeal to the Supreme Court, the chances of a decision before the presidential election are cut in half.
As the U.S. Federal Circuit Court (2nd trial) dismissed former U.S. President Donald Trump’s appeal for immunity on the 6th (local time), attention is focused on whether various criminal trials that Trump has been delaying will be able to proceed quickly.
The New York Times (NYT) looked at whether Trump’s response could result in a ruling on Trump’s trial on charges of subverting the election before the November presidential election. Given that various opinion polls show that the majority of American voters will not support Trump if he is found guilty, whether the ruling is made before the presidential election day is very significant.
◆Should Trump go to the Supreme Court or appeal again?
The Trump election campaign did not announce whether it would appeal to the Supreme Court after the three-judge panel of the Federal Circuit Court rejected immunity, or whether it would go through one more intermediate step and appeal again to the full panel of the Federal Circuit.
Trump, who has been pursuing a strategy of delaying the trial, may naturally think that he will not immediately appeal to the Supreme Court and request a retrial by a nine-member panel rather than a three-member panel of the circuit court.
However, the three-member panel showed its will to block Trump’s attempt to delay the trial by stating in its decision to dismiss that Trump can appeal to the Supreme Court by the 12th.
He stated that if he appealed again to the full bench, he would send the case back to the federal district court, thereby allowing the trial of the district court’s attempt to challenge Trump’s election to be resumed quickly.
◆Why the resumption of Washington District Court trials is important
U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chuktan in Washington announced last week that she was indefinitely postponing the March 4 start date for Trump’s trial in an attempt to overthrow the election.
The reason was that there was no possibility that the conclusion of the lawsuit claiming Trump’s immunity would be decided before the scheduled start date of the trial.
Judge Chuktan also announced that the trial schedule would be postponed to ensure that Trump’s team does not have time to prepare for the lawsuit due to the trial delay.
However, if Trump re-appeals to the full panel of the Federal Court of Appeals, Judge Chuktan will be able to quickly resume the trial before the immunity claim is dismissed.
Accordingly, there is a greater possibility that a first-trial ruling will be made on charges of attempting to overturn the election before the presidential election day in November.
This is a huge burden for Trump, given that many opinion polls show voters will not support Trump if he is convicted.
◆In case of appeal to the Supreme Court
The Supreme Court will first decide whether to begin the hearing or dismiss the hearing itself.
If the decision to dismiss the hearing is made, the Federal Circuit Court’s dismissal decision will become effective and the trial on the merits of the attempt to overturn the election can resume within a few weeks from now.
Considering that Judge Chuktan said he would give Trump’s team enough time to prepare for the trial, the trial could resume in early May.
However, in this case, Trump may not be able to participate in the National Convention from July 15 to 18, when the Republican National Convention will be held, and may have to attend trial, and Trump’s election schedule may become difficult thereafter. Attendance is mandatory for the defendant in criminal trials.
On the other hand, if the Supreme Court decides to hear the immunity claim, a final decision can typically be made around the end of June or early July.
In this case, the trial on the merits of the charge of overturning the election can only resume in the fall, and the likelihood of a first-trial ruling coming out before the presidential election in November is greatly reduced.
Meanwhile, it is highly unlikely that the Supreme Court will accept Trump’s claim of immunity, whether it decides to dismiss the hearing or decides to dismiss it after the trial.
If, by any chance, the immunity claim is accepted, the trial on charges of overturning the election will be invalid and cannot proceed.
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.