Baltic countries building ’21st century version of the Maginot Line’ in preparation for Russian invasion

The three Baltic countries, including Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, bordering the Baltic Sea, are building a ’21st century version of the Maginot Line’ in their border areas in preparation for a Russian invasion. The Maginot Line refers to a large fortification zone built by France on the border between 1929 and 1938 to prevent German invasion. The Maginot Line, which had a total length of 750 km, consisted of border guard posts, communication centers, infantry shelters, barricades, artillery, machine guns and anti-tank guns, and large and small bunkers.

Lithuania shares borders with Kaliningrad, a Russian extraterritorial territory, and Belarus, a Russian military ally. Latvia borders Russia and Belarus, and Estonia borders Russia. The geopolitical importance of these Baltic countries is increasing after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is because Finland, which was a military neutral country, joined NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), and Sweden is expected to join NATO soon. From Russia’s perspective, the Baltic Sea could be at risk of being blockaded, so it must occupy the Baltic countries to secure control over the Baltic Sea.

From the perspective of the Baltic countries, it can be seen that they are facing a serious security threat. Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Kalas said in an interview with British daily The Times that the time remaining until Russia again becomes a serious military threat to NATO’s eastern countries, “Our intelligence estimates are three to five years.” He expressed concern that “the Baltic countries will become Russia’s next invasion target.” The Baltic countries are so small that their combined land area is only 1/100th of Russia. The total population of the Baltic countries, including 3.4 million in Lithuania, 2.3 million in Latvia, and 1.4 million in Estonia, is also small compared to Russia.

Defense ministers from the Baltic countries signed an agreement in Riga, the capital of Latvia, on January 19 to establish a so-called ‘Baltic defense line’ to counter military threats from Russia and Belarus. The agreement stipulates that the Baltic countries will build defense structures to defend against military threats from Russia and Belarus over the next few years. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur pointed out, “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shown that the border needs physical defenses in addition to equipment, ammunition and troops.” Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruz also emphasized, “We will build a Baltic defense line to protect NATO’s eastern front and limit the movements of our enemies.” Although the details of the Baltic Sea defense line have not been revealed, many believe that it will be similar to the Maginot Line of the past.

In particular, like the defensive fortress that Russia built in southeastern Ukraine to block Ukraine’s counteroffensive, the Baltic countries also erected barbed wire fences, laid mines, and built concrete structures called ‘dragon teeth’ along the border areas with Russia and Belarus. I plan to install it. Dragon’s teeth are pyramid- or cone-shaped reinforced concrete structures created to impede the advance of armored equipment such as tanks and armored vehicles. The Russian military installed three layers of dragon’s teeth spanning hundreds of kilometers in areas where a major counterattack by the Ukrainian army was expected, such as Zaporizhia. The Russian military built anti-tank traps large enough to fall into tanks and even laid mines on both sides of the dragon’s teeth.

The Baltic countries are facing security threats following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. [위키피디아]

Estonia plans to invest 60 million euros (about 86.6 billion won) to build 600 bunkers along the 333km border with Russia. Each bunker is designed to accommodate 10 people with a size of 30 to 35 m2, and is planned to be sturdy enough to withstand a direct hit from a 152 mm projectile. Construction is expected to begin in 2025 following negotiations with private landowners. Estonia’s Defense Ministry said the defense facility would serve as an early warning system for potential attacks.

The Baltic countries also signed an agreement allowing joint use of various weapons, including the High-Speed ​​Mobile Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). The three Baltic countries have decided to form a de facto military alliance and jointly respond to Russia. In addition, the Baltic countries renewed their defense agreement with the United States last year. The key content of this agreement is to allow the U.S. military to station and conduct operations at military bases in the Baltic countries and to quickly deploy troops and equipment in case of emergency. Last year, Lithuania signed an agreement with Germany to permanently station 5,000 German troops in the country. This is the first time since World War II that Germany permanently deploys its troops abroad.

As the geopolitical crisis escalated in Europe, including the Baltic countries, NATO began the largest military exercise since the Cold War in preparation for a Russian invasion. Christopher Cavoli, NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, announced that military exercises called ‘Steadfast Defender 2024’ will be conducted across Europe from January 22 to the end of May. This exercise involves 32 countries, including 31 NATO member countries and Sweden, which is close to joining NATO. 90,000 troops, 50 naval ships, 80 various military aircraft including fighter jets, and 1,100 combat vehicles including tanks were mobilized. This is the largest exercise since 1988, during the Cold War. In particular, it is actually the first ground exercise conducted by NATO in preparation for a Russian invasion since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Supreme Commander Cavoli said, “The training is based on a new conflict scenario with a close enemy (Russia),” and added, “The training is conducted according to the ‘regional plan’ newly adopted by NATO for the first time in decades.”

At the summit held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, in July last year, NATO adopted the ‘Regional Plan’, a military plan to prepare for Russia’s attack on Europe. The core of this plan is that in the event of an emergency such as a Russian invasion, 31 member countries will quickly gather 300,000 troops and deploy them to the area invaded by Russia within 30 days. NATO established a defense plan centered on three regions: the Arctic and the Atlantic Ocean, the northern regions of the Alps such as the Baltic States and Poland, and southern Europe, including the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. “This exercise will demonstrate that NATO can conduct and sustain complex multi-domain operations for months under any conditions, over an area spanning thousands of kilometers from Northern Europe to Central and Eastern Europe,” said Rob Bauer, chairman of the NATO Military Committee. .

NATO maintains eight battle groups across Eastern Europe. Four groups are in the Baltic countries and Poland, and four additional groups were created in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They are responsible for the initial frontline defense against Russian invasion.

What is noteworthy is that this training is conducted under the assumption that ‘Article 5 of the NATO Charter’ (collective defense principle) has been activated. Article 5 of the NATO Charter stipulates that if one of the NATO member countries is attacked, it is considered an attack on all member countries, and other member countries can automatically intervene and jointly defend. If one of the 31 NATO member countries is attacked, the remaining 30 countries will unite their military forces and launch a counterattack. To date, Article 5 of the NATO Charter has been invoked only once. When the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks occurred in the United States, NATO activated Article 5 of the Charter the next day to show solidarity with the United States.

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with reporters at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing, China, on October 18 last year. [뉴시스]

The reason why NATO is carrying out training under the assumption that Article 5 of the Charter has been invoked is because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some NATO members, including the Baltic states and Finland, have been concerned that Russia could invade their countries following Ukraine. NATO appears to be training under the assumption that Article 5 of the Charter has been invoked in order to dispel this concern and further strengthen the alliance.

As NATO strengthens its solidarity to keep Russia in check, Russia is speeding up discussions with Belarus, which has deployed nuclear weapons, to establish a joint state. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a summit meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on January 29 and discussed ways to integrate the two countries. The leaders of the two countries reviewed the implementation status of the ‘United State Roadmap’ agreed upon three years ago and decided to actively pursue integration. Belarus actively supported Russia by providing its own military base during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russia deployed its own tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus in June last year. It was the first time Russia had deployed nuclear weapons outside its territory since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense announced a new military doctrine regarding the deployment of nuclear weapons and stated that the Belarusian military could be mobilized if the Allied State alliance were to be invaded by force. President Putin visited Kaliningrad on a private plane on January 25 and openly revealed his ambitions for the Baltic countries. Literally, NATO and Russia have entered a phase of full-scale confrontation.

Jang-Hoon Lee, international affairs analyst [email protected]

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Source: Donga

Mark

Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.