Donald Trump’s blow to NATO and Vladimir Putin’s smile

Donald Trump has not yet won the elections, not even those of his party, favored in both cases, but already transforms global geopolitics. He just revealed if they will vote for him in November would support Russia against its European NATO allies.

“I wouldn’t protect them. In fact, I would encourage them [a Rusia] do what he wants”he warned during an election event in South Carolina. It is important not to fall into simplifications. This is not just a inflammatory comment. On the contrary, it constructs meaning within a vision of history that today has many important followers.

Trump also speaks from a real and concrete powerwhich comes from his electoral support. Perplexed by such bravado which first and foremost affects the United States itself and its place in the world, the White House reacted by obviously stating that “Encouraging the invasion of our closest allies by murderous regimes is appalling and insane.” From Brussels, Charles Michel, president of the European Commission, is more specific accused Trump of serving Russian interests. It is not wrong.

Autocrat Vladimir Putin returned the gesture a few hours later ordering the arrest of the Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas and his Secretary of State, ignoring the sovereignty of that nation as when it was one of the 15 nations of the Soviet Union under the influence of Moscow. This is what the Kremlin wants from its entire neighborhood. That’s why there is a war against Ukraine.

The Russian leader clearly interpreted the message of the eccentric former North American president and it is possible to imagine the world panorama if November consolidated him again in the White House.

Trump said he would act this way in favor of Russia if a country under attack did not meet the 2% of GDP goal in defense spending. A rhetoric, it has been said, with mafia rigor: If they don’t pay there is no protection. By the way, US influence on Europe is not an expense, it has always been a gain, and that is why it exists.

Mockery and authoritarianism

The tycoon made that comment not surprisingly together with an unpleasant mockery of an American military leader, husband of her internal rival Nikky Haley, an Army major deployed to the Horn of Africa. It is not the first time that Trump mocks his own military to highlight his authoritarian position and his refusal to be discussed.

In 2016, he bullied Senator John McCain, a war hero and Republican who questioned him, and dismissed him as a failure because he was captured by the Vietnamese. “I respect those who were not captured” Trump said that, remember, he avoided military service five times fear of being sent to the front.

NATO is a controversial alliance, whose power and effectiveness have grown hand in hand imperialist war launched by Russia on Ukraine, the same way as the American leadership. That’s how it is, whether you like it or not. But it would be naive to assume that the decay of that structure is the gateway to a beneficial universe.

If the United States were to distance itself from or reduce its involvement with the Alliance, as actually happened during Trump’s first term (Emmanuel Macron at the time described NATO as cerebral palsy) not only would Russia unleash its forces of conquest. Great Britain hypothesizes that the Kremlin, but also North Korea, Iran or China will intervene in the immediate future the radar of future wars. Turkey may be included for its exalted Ottomanist appetite for the Greek islands of the Aegean, the South Caucasus, or Armenia.

The truth is that as deterrence crumbles, that is, the idea that an attack against one partner, even the smallest, is an attack against everyone, increases the possibility of future war. It is in this sense that the specters that Trump’s comment raises must be observed.

To be clear, we insist that these are not just inflammatory words, the mogul’s followers in Congress, aligned fervently or forcefully because of the former president’s electoral potential, have arrived blocking key aid to Ukraine, facilitating its defeat.

A multi-million dollar package approved in these hours by the Senate despite the tycoon’s fury, is on its way road to being blocked in the deputies where the Republicans have the majority. What seems not to be understood is that if Ukraine falls, it will be the United States and its allies who will move on to another phase of history. This is what Putin and his Chinese partner observe with clarity (and satisfaction).

Moscow needs military victory because in this way, and without necessarily invading other countries, as demonstrated by the case of Estonia, it will try to impose the alignment of the capitals of the former Soviet Union under the command of the Kremlin. With this movement its political and, above all, economic influence would grow.

Russia went to war against Ukraine to solve the problem (I imagined a victory in a few days) the fatal contradiction of living with a GDP similar to that of Brazil and lower than that of Italy. He knows that economic possibilities nourish political abilities. Without the first the second does not exist.

Detach yourself from the world

Trump is willing to give Putin the right to collapse the Atlantic Doctrine, the epitome of which is NATO, and ignore the rest of the planet. We thus return to the world of the republican legislators of the first decades of the last century who They celebrated not having a passport.

The idea of ​​stopping this regression is fictitious. Trump, with his post-Americanismit’s a consequence of political decline and dysfunction which has trapped the United States since the beginning of this century and which makes this type of leadership possible which marks the end of an era and its protagonists.

Russia, despite its recent and hardly credible praise for Joe Biden, hopes that Trump will triumph because he has clearly promised to cancel the war in a matter of hours. with the defeat of Kiev and the loss of a further 20% of its territory.

A break for Moscow in its decision to completely swallow the country, as he did with Crimea and Putin has just confirmed this in the pseudo relationship with the Trumpist Tucker Carlson to whom he underlined – without asking any questions – that Ukraine is an invented state that should not exist.

The return of the Republican leader to the White House also excites far-right minorities and fanatics of Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israeli government, convinced that with their help They will be able to go back through history and do whatever they want with the Palestinian populations.

A primary and simplistic defense of the former president’s allies is to repeat that there were no wars during his time in office. The concept, in addition to its superficiality, ignores Trump’s commitment serious geopolitical mistakes in its management. The most notable is the destruction of the Vienna nuclear deal agreed in 2015 with the Iranian theocracy.

He acted at the request of the Saudis and the Israelis who called for sanctions against the Persian power to be multiplied. whose influence had grown after the victory in the Syrian war and reached the Mediterranean. The deal that Tehran strictly abided by while awaiting a wave of investment prevented new sanctions, so Trump ignored it.

But what a rain of sanctions it paved the way to power in Iran for the current ultranationalists. Many in the region now miss the moderate government of Hassan Rouhani who intelligently negotiated that deal with Barack Obama.

The other casualty of Trump’s disorientation was the thaw with Cuba, which if it had continued would have fostered a middle class, private business, another political debate and a interaction with the United States which would have strongly influenced the design of power in that territory, one of those that send the greatest number of migrants to the Río Bravo borders.

trump he naively plotted with the communist hawks The Cubans who hated Raúl Castro’s rapprochement with Washington. They are just examples of a long caravan but they confirm that ignorance and dogmatism do nothing but build a world of the blind.

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