US support has been discontinued and European support is still insufficient.
Fall of Bahmut → Failed counterattack → Fall of Audiuka
Unlike last year, pessimism prevailed at the Munich Security Conference.
CNN and POLITICO reported on the 19th (local time) that concerns are growing about the future of the war as Ukraine gave up Audiuka, which it had been protecting since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2014, to the Russian military.
A gloomy atmosphere is spreading not only in Ukraine but also among Western countries due to successive defeats, including the loss of eastern Bakhmut in the spring of last year, the failure of a major counterattack in the south in the summer, and the recent fall of Audiuka.
The problem is support from the US and Europe. At the recent Munich Security Conference, a Ukrainian official appealed to U.S. senators for U.S. support, saying, “A young soldier on the front line is actively looking through his cell phone for any news of the resumption of U.S. support while under fire from the Russian military.” did.
◆Russia, in control of Audiuka, strengthens its offensive on all fronts
The Russian army, which took control of Audiuka, a key railway point, began to deploy troops and air power to other fronts. Buledar to the south and Robotine to the west are threatened. Robotine was recaptured by Ukrainian forces in a major counteroffensive last summer. Russian military attacks are also intensifying in the outskirts of Kupyansk, Kharkiv, and Bakhmut.
With the presidential election less than a month away, Russian President Vladimir Putin is desperately hoping that news of victory will continue. Russia’s military companies are actively producing war materials, and Russia’s financial situation is ample. It is receiving large amounts of artillery shells and missiles from North Korea.
In an interview with US far-right journalist Tucker Carlson, President Putin described Poland as an ‘errant vassal’. This part shows that his ambition for expansion has no end.
The Russian army’s greatest strength is its tenacity and ruthlessness. They have shown that they are willing to sacrifice conscripts, mercenaries, and prisoners for even a small victory.
On the other hand, the Ukrainian military faces all kinds of negative factors.
◆Adverse factors such as lack of Ukrainian military personnel and artillery shells
The Ukrainian army, which is suffering from a troop shortage, is working hard to come up with countermeasures, such as expanding the conscription age, but the support is sluggish. It is unclear whether the military’s demand for an additional 500,000 troops can be met.
As support from the West dwindles, artillery shells are becoming scarce and the Russian army cannot fire even one-tenth of the total.
Support from European countries is still insufficient, and the United States, the largest supporter, has suspended support due to opposition from the Republican-dominated Congress.
It is unclear whether the Ukrainian military will be able to turn the tide even with the $60 billion in support that U.S. President Joe Biden requested from Congress.
There are many evaluations that it is enough to allow the Ukrainian military to endure without collapsing, but it is the best that Ukraine can hope for.
Putin will never stop. Without Western support, Ukraine will continue to weaken and the war will never end.
If strong support from the West is not resumed, the risk of the war in Ukraine expanding into a war in Europe will inevitably increase.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said in Munich that “With the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Audivka, Russian weapons have come one step closer to middle-class European families.”
U.S. officials emphasize that America’s will to provide support has not diminished at all. U.S. Secretary of the Army Christine Warmers emphasized in Munich, “Looking at what is happening in Ukraine, our enemies say America’s will has weakened, but it is a mistake to judge that a leader like Putin will be neglected.”
US lawmakers who attended the Munich conference also said that Congress will pass a support budget as early as next month. The majority of Republican lawmakers are in favor of support. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson and former President Donald Trump, who have been blocking the passage of the budget, are major variables.
Hopes that Ukraine could win have fallen to their lowest level in two years since the war began. The atmosphere has changed significantly from the Munich Security Conference a year ago. Now, no one in the United States or Europe can predict the outcome of the war.
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Military Committee, said, “No matter how the war ends, the problem of Russia will not go away. “Optimism was high until last year, but pessimism has increased this year,” he said.
As pessimism grows, so do claims that unlimited support for Ukraine is impossible.
◆The claim that “unlimited support to Ukraine is not possible” also emerged.
Republican Senator JD Vance emphasized that the United States does not have the ability to produce enough weapons to defend the United States while supporting Ukraine.
He said, “Europe must increase self-sufficiency for its own defense. “The United States must pay more attention to East Asia, so European countries must take a more active role,” he said.
However, no one is saying that Ukraine’s defeat has become irreversible.
“Russia will never win,” said Jim Risch, Republican ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. It is impossible to completely occupy Ukraine. The war ends only when both sides are completely exhausted. “Neither side has reached that situation yet,” he emphasized.
The U.S. White House also claimed that Ukraine would not stop resisting even without sufficient support. The analysis is that “the likelihood that Ukraine will obediently comply with Russia’s demands is literally zero.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.