Russian intelligence agencies misjudge the invasion of Ukraine
Kremlin-led KGB-style revival
50,000 propaganda accounts confirmed in one month
Attempt to crack NATO – each country’s election intervention ’emergency’
“Russian spies are back.” (British Economist)
The Russian intelligence agency, which was powerful as the ‘KGB (State Security Committee)’ during the Soviet era, is struggling to regain its former presence with the full support of President Vladimir Putin. Intelligence agencies, which had suffered disgrace in recent years, including the misjudgment that “the war would be resolved within a few days” during the invasion of Ukraine, have recently undergone major reforms and are known to have embarked on several overseas operations. In particular, as suspicions of involvement in the Spanish assassination of a Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine on the 13th arose, some say that they are seeking to revive the ‘shadow war’ of the KGB during the Cold War.
According to the British daily The Times, Russia’s three major intelligence agencies – the Federal Security Service (FSB), Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), and General Intelligence Service (GRU) – have been ignored internationally due to their incompetence and division even before the Ukraine war. The attempt to poison opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who died mysteriously in prison on the 16th, failed in 2020, and the underestimation of Ukraine in 2022 resulted in a long-term war that will mark two years on the 23rd. William Burns, director of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), a long-time rival, ridiculed him in an article for the diplomatic magazine Foreign Affairs last month, saying, “Thanks to Russia (internal division), employment opportunities at the CIA have increased.”
However, there have recently been signs that the Russian intelligence authorities are learning from their previous mistakes and embarking on major reforms. In a report on the 20th, Britain’s Royal Joint Military Institute (RUSI) said, “The ‘Special Influence Committee’ led by First Deputy Director of the Kremlin’s Executive Office Sergei Kiriyenko is leading the overall reform work.” In particular, in relation to the leak of military information, which was pointed out as a key cause of the slowdown in the war, the GRU began reforming itself by strictly banning the use of smartphones in major units.
The Economist analyzed, “The recent series of incidents aimed at splitting the European Union (EU) are also related to this work.” It is said that there is a high possibility that Russian intelligence agencies were involved in the sudden surge in false information about the Moldovan president when Moldova, a former Soviet Union country in southwestern Ukraine, sought to join the EU last year.
Recently, the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed over 50,000 France and Poland also announced a joint response to Russia’s online public opinion manipulation network ‘Portal Combat’ on the 12th.
The top priority for Russian intelligence agencies is widening rifts within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). This is to weaken support for Ukraine and strengthen Russia’s influence. RUSI warned that “Russian intelligence agencies are preparing to interfere in elections in European countries, including the UK.”
There have already been signs that the agencies will engage in ruthless operations that were only encountered during the Cold War. There is a possibility that the murder of Maxim Kuzminov, a Russian pilot who rebelled and went into exile during the Ukraine war, in Spain on the 13th was also committed by Russian intelligence authorities in collaboration with the local mafia. The Times evaluated it as “a sign that Russian intelligence agencies are making a comeback.”
In particular, various operations have been carried out in Eastern Europe recently. The Estonian government announced on the 20th that “10 Estonian and Russian suspects have been detained on charges of creating fear by damaging the interior minister’s vehicle under instructions from the Russian intelligence agency.” Prime Minister Kaya Kalas said in an interview with CNN, “Russia is waging a shadow war against us.”
The Economist warned, “President Putin, a former KGB officer, is trying to restore the glory of the secret service that was powerful during the Stalin era,” and added, “Russian intelligence agencies are more dangerous than ever.”
Source: Donga
Mark Jones is a world traveler and journalist for News Rebeat. With a curious mind and a love of adventure, Mark brings a unique perspective to the latest global events and provides in-depth and thought-provoking coverage of the world at large.