Two years of war: Ukraine resists gloomy predictions and strengthening Russia

On the night of February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine. The war enters its third year of fighting on Saturday and the Russians have captured between 17 and 20 percent of Ukrainian territory in the south and east of the country. Things are worse than ever.

Just last week Russia achieved its most important victory by capturing, after four months of bloody battles, the industrial city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk Republic, a puppet created by the Russians near the border with Russia in eastern Ukraine.

Information on deaths and injuries varies greatly depending on the source involved. The newspaper The New York Times estimated that the war caused in two years half a million dead and injured. Three hundred thousand are Russians and two hundred thousand Ukrainians.

These figures are approximate, but they reveal how the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops in the second year of the war, which sought to corner the Russians in the east and south, ended in failure, while the year ends with the war initiative in the hands of Russia.

The end of the last two weeks has left thousands dead in clashes during the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the industrial city of Avdiivka and the forced march towards new defensive positions towards the west, with the Russians behind them.

The figures of the war

The anniversary invites balance. On the Ukrainian side, an official report indicates that Russia lost in these first two years of war 6,516 tanks, 9,826 artillery systems, 902 multiple launch rocket systems, 338 aircraft, 678 air defense systems, 325 helicopters, 7,600 drones and 25 warships. the black sea.

The data is incomplete and partial. The Ukrainians did not provide figures on their losses. The data serves to give an idea of ​​the extent of the war material used and the effort to replace and renew it.

Europe has just approved new aid and studies further sanctions against Russiain a context of growing skepticism in public opinion in the 27 countries of the European Union, which constitutes an alarming signal of the growing desire to loosen the reins of enthusiasm and the investment of billions of dollars in favor of the Ukrainian cause, which has had its moments of splendor in the two years that passed.

The Europeans also need to replace their considerable weapons, which were produced to help Ukraine more quickly.

The polls prove it only 10% of Europeans currently believe that Russia will be defeated.

Russia, on the other hand, enters the third year of the war with a significant increase in its ability to sustain the war effort and has achieved largely overcome the economic blows caused by Western sanctions. The Russian economy has stopped panting, has rebalanced itself, and in an interview this week President Putin said that Russia is the fastest growing economy in Europe.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted the strength of the Russian economy and improved its growth forecast for 2024 from 1.1% to 2.6%.

According to the International Monetary Fund, last year the Russian economy grew faster than that of the entire Group of Seven (the most industrialized powers in the world) and will continue to do so in 2024. The Russian economy has transformed into a mobilized war economy. Military spending represents up to 40% of the budget and has reached final Soviet Union-era levels. Other areas were reduced to finance war production.

Russian oil and gas flows are supported by production that, in the case of oil, is close to ten million barrels per day. Hundreds of Russian oil tankers travel around the world, headed for example to India and China. Many transactions are made in Chinese yuan.

US President Joe Biden has announced that new sanctions against the Russians are being studied. Largely due to the war in Ukraine and also in response to the suspicious death of Alexei Navalny, leader of the opposition to Vladimir Putin, in a Siberian prison beyond the Arctic Circle.

More wars and fears in the world

Diplomatic problems between great powers expand along with the spread of new wars and war clashes, mainly due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas which led to a dangerous crisiswith Iran from the beginning alongside the Arab countries and groups hostile to Israel and the guerrilla mobilization that Iran has launched to attack in an area of ​​the Middle East and the Red Sea that can further inflame the epidemic in a vast region.

Iran also exports weapons to the Russians and as relations grow, a conflict with the United States, which already does not tolerate Iranian interference in the Israel-Hamas war, will become increasingly possible.

The relationship between the United States and Russia deteriorates. The latest of many was a comment by President Biden who called the Russian president a “crazy son of a bitch” in front of a group of journalists with whom he was speaking. Recently he had thrown other “compliments” in a similar speech against Vladimir Putin, calling him a “butcher” and a “war criminal”.

Putin remains unperturbed and enjoys the victorious path that eliminated his greatest opponent, Navalny, who died in very suspicious circumstances. March towards the practically certain conquest, due to lack of rivals, of third re-election as president of the Russian Republic in the general elections in March.

From his position of strength, Putin has declared that it is not his plan to invade any other country, while Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, the three small Baltic republics that were under Soviet rule from 1940 to 1991, say they have no doubt that If Russia will devour the Ukrainian dish, it will be “next on the list”.

The reality is that the world has entered a phase of growing instability which seems to justify the fears of analysts who believe that the new decade will be more dangerous due to the accumulation of conflicts and crises suffered by the main protagonists.

The United States is the most worrying case. Two elderly, old rivals, President Biden and former President Donald Trump, will face each other in the November elections and both are offering fragile positions on his leadership.

Europeans who are part of NATO, the Western military defense alliance, and the European Union, suffer deeply from the specific threat posed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The vast majority quickly increased their contribution to reach the promised 2% of their domestic income to finance NATO.

Biden assures that there will soon be new sanctions against Russia, but there is no mention of the 300 billion dollars that were deposited by the Russians in Western banks and have remained dormant. The Europeans suggest getting their hands on that treasure, earmarking it to help the Ukrainians. But this is a veiled topic.

In Ukraine “the situation is extremely complex”. This was stated by General Oleksandr Syrsky, appointed a few months ago as the new commander in chief of the army by President Volodymyr Zelensky, who got rid of the popular previous military leader by sending him into retirement.

On the 1,500 kilometer east-south front, Russian attacks show increasing use of ballistic missiles and Islander cruise missiles. Aerial bombardments in the Battle of Avdivka dropped 250- and 500-kilo bombs that devastated the Ukrainian ranks.

The Russians increased pressure this week with a raid on Kharkov in the east and attacks on Kherson in the south, which was bombed.

To add to the concerns, The New York Times spread the story that the Russians hope to launch a nuclear weapon into orbit this year. Furthermore, a hypersonic missile capable of reaching a speed of 9,800 kilometers per hour would be regularly launched in the Ukrainian theater.