The NATO that welcomes Sweden is larger and more determined

BERLIN – Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago was a a huge shock for Europeans.

Accustomed to 30 years of post-Cold War peace, they imagined that European security would be built together with a more democratic Russia, and not rebuilt against a machine of power. imperial revisionist war.

There was no greater commotion than in Finlandwith its long border and historical tension with Russia, and in Swedenwhich had dismantled most of its army, air force and navy in the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

After the decision of the Russian president Vladimir Putin of attempting to destroy a neighboring sovereign, both Finland and Sweden quickly decided to apply to join the NATO alliance, the only clear guarantee of collective defense against a once again aggressive and reckless Russia.

Finland joined last year and on Monday the Hungarian parliament finally approved Sweden’s request.

Putin now faces a NATO has expanded and motivatedwho no longer dreams of permanent peace.

While NATO countries look with some trepidation at the possibility of the unforeseeable Donald Trumpwho is not a supporter of the alliance, can again become president of the United States, its European members are taking measures to protect your defenses Anyway.

Critics call its actions too slow and limited, but NATO is spending more money on defense, producing more tanks, artillery shells, drones and fighter jets, deploying more troops to Russia’s borders and approving more serious military plans for any potential war. while funneling billions of dollars into the Ukrainian efforts to temper Russia’s ambitions.

Reasons

The reason is pure deterrence.

Some member states are already suggesting that if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, he will test NATO’s collective will over the next three to five years.

If Trump were elected and cast serious doubt on the U.S. commitment to defending NATO allies, “that could tip the scales for Putin to test NATO’s resolve,” said Robert Dalsjo, the Center’s director of studies Swedish Defense Research. . Agency.

Even now, Dalsjo said, Trump or not, Europe must prepare for at least a generation of greater containment and deterrence against a militarized Russia, and in which Putin clearly “has considerable public support for his aggressive revanchism.”

However, now that Hungary has finally voted for Sweden to join NATO, the pieces are finally falling into place for a strongly strengthened NATO deterrence in the Baltic and North Sea, with greater protection for the states in first place line. Finland, Norway and the Baltic countries. , which borders Russia.

Once Hungary delivers a letter certifying parliamentary approval to the US State Department, Sweden will become NATO’s 32nd member and all countries surrounding the Baltic Sea except Russia will be part of the alliance.

“Sweden brings predictability, eliminating any uncertainty about how we would act in a crisis or war,” Dalsjo said.

Given Sweden’s geography, which includes Gotland, the island that helps control the entrance to the Baltic Sea, membership “will make it much easier to achieve defense and deterrence,” he said.

It was Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago that pushed Finland to decide to join NATO, and Helsinki also pushed a somewhat more reluctant Sweden to apply for membership .

Finland, with its long border with Russia, saw the most imminent danger; the Swedes did it too, but they were also convinced, especially on the political left, by a feeling of moral indignation that Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, would seek to destroy a peaceful and sovereign neighbor.

“Overall, the feeling is that we will be safer,” said Anna Wieslander, a Swede who is the Atlantic Council’s Northern Europe director.

History matters too, Dalsjo said.

“If Finland united, we had to do so; we could not be once again a wall between Finland and her helpers in the West”, as neutral Sweden had been during the brave but lost”Winter War” of Finland against the Soviet Union in 1939, when Finland had to cede about 11% of its territory to Moscow.

With Sweden and Finland together in NATO, it will be much easier to suppress the Russian surface navy in the Baltic Sea and monitor the Far North.

Russia still holds two-thirds of its second-strike nuclear weapons there, on the Kola Peninsula.

The new members will therefore help ensure better monitoring of a crucial part of the Russian military, said Niklas Granholm, deputy director of studies at the University Defense Research Agency.

Threat

The Russian fleet in Kaliningrad, in the Baltic Sea between Poland and Lithuania, is just 200 miles away, as are its nuclear-capable Iskander missiles.

NATO planners have long worried about how to support the Baltic nations if Russia seizes the 64-kilometer “Suwalki Gap” between Kaliningrad and Belarus, but Sweden’s location straddling the North and North Seas South of the Baltic would make it much easier to send reinforcements to NATO.

Russia will of course retain its land-based missiles, but its nuclear-armed submarines may struggle more difficult to maneuver in the open sea without being detected.

Sweden, with its own advanced high-tech defense industry, produces its own excellent fighter aircraft, naval corvettes and submarines, designed to operate in the harsh environment of the Baltic Sea.

It has already begun developing and building a new class of modern submarines and larger corvettes for coastal and air defense.

With NATO membership, it will now be easier to coordinate with Finland and Denmark, which also have key islands in the Baltic Sea, and with Norway.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Stockholm decided that war was a thing of the past.

He withdrew almost all of his forces from Gotland and reduced the national army by about 90% and the navy and air force by about 70%.

The military is slowly being rebuilt and military spending, which was close to 3% of gross domestic product during the Cold War but has fallen to about 1%, will this year reach 2%, the current NATO standard.

“These investments will take time, and we need to act faster,” Granholm said.

Sweden could also join NATO’s multinational advance brigade in Latvia, which aims to send allied troops to all alliance countries bordering Russia.

Sweden’s main tasks, Wieslander said, will be to help protect the Baltic Sea and the airspace above Kaliningrad; ensure the security of Gothenburg, which is essential for supplies and reinforcements; and serve as a staging area for U.S. and NATO troops, with provisions for forward placement of equipment, ammunition, supplies and field hospitals.

For both Finland and Sweden, membership represents the end of a 30-year process, what Dalsjo called “our long farewell to neutrality.”

First there was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the decision to join the European Union, which meant abandoning neutrality for what both countries called “military non-alignment.”

Sweden, which had decent defense guarantees from the United States, has gradually become more explicitly Atlanticist and increasingly integrated into NATO, he said.

“And now let’s take the final step.”

Sweden will have to adapt its strategic culture to work within an alliance, Wieslander said.

“It will make a big difference for us and the allies will expect Sweden to show some leadership.”

Like Finland, Sweden will need to integrate its forces into NATO and develop new capabilities for collective defense instead of focusing solely on defending its homeland.

“It’s a steep learning curve,” Granholm said.

“We don’t yet have a complete picture of NATO’s regional plans,” but now we will have it as a full member.

“So we need to delve deeper into what NATO wants us to do and what we want to do. After all, we are doing this to protect ourselves.”

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