Nicolás Maduro says Venezuela will grow 8% this year, but economists deny it

Venezuelan autocrat Nicolás Maduro, in a campaign tone and without providing further details on his calculations, He assured that Venezuela will grow by 8% this year which would follow an increase last year which, it claims, was 5.5%.

The truth is that the Venezuelan Observatory of Finance (OVF), an independent body external to the Central Bank and composed of economic experts, reported a 1.2% decline last year. The record risks repeating itself this year, especially due to the deterioration of the country’s economic relations due to maneuvers aimed at blocking the political opposition and maintaining power.

During a televised event, Maduro made his announcement claiming he has a plan for the country to achieve “bigger and better economic goals. This year we expect 8% growth in gross domestic product (GDP)“At a minimum, the growth of the real economy, the economy that produces eggs, cheese, meat, milk, material goods, to satisfy daily life.”

The Chavista dictator added that the national economy has recovered and continues to grow thanks to the “collective efforts” of the country’s producers and entrepreneurs.

It indicated that Venezuelan GDP recorded an increase of 5.5% in 2023when “what was growing the most was the non-oil economy”, while the oil economy “began to recover with its own efforts”.

According to experts, the economic forecasts for this year are subject to the evolution of key scenarios for the country such as the presidential elections, still without a defined date, and the sanctions policy of the United States, which they have already warned foresees to reinstate sanctions on oil and gas in April if the Maduro government does not allow the opposition María Corina Machado to compete in these elections.

The company Ecoanalytica, which calculated an increase of 9.7% compared to the previous year in a scenario without sanctions, economic activity is expected to increase by 4.4% or even less, if the warning comes true, according to estimates provided to Efe.

The Venezuelan government assured this month that its country “will never surrender” to US orders and called on the population to build an independent economic model to prevent the nation from being vulnerable to external factors.

Maduro faces a geometric growth in opposition power that polls say would take place if elections were held today Chavismo would lose in a landslide after a quarter of a century of control of the country. Machado, a former deputy, won unanimous support from the entire opposition last year and is the favorite for the presidency. So the Supreme Court, which is a regime-aligned organization, banned her as well as the rest of the opposition group and allowed only alleged dissidents designated by the autocracy to compete.

The United States lifted sanctions last October for six months on the basis of agreements with the regime to free political prisoners and promote free elections, without proscriptions and with international observers. This deadline expires in April.