5 takeaways from Putin’s orchestrated victory in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin emerged from the three-day presidential election that ended Sunday, declaring that his landslide victory represented a public mandate act, if necessary, in the war in Ukraine, as well as in various internal affairs, fueling unrest among the Russians. about what comes next.

Putin said the vote represents the desire to “internal consolidation” which would allow Russia to “act effectively on the front line,” as well as in other areas, such as the economy.

The government rejected a protest organized by the Russian opposition, in which citizens expressed their disapproval by flooding polling stations at midday.

A correspondent of the state channel Rossiya 24 He said “the provocations at polling stations were nothing more than mosquito bites.”

Official commentators suggested that the lines showed a zeal for democratic participation.

Putin, 71, will now be president until at least 2030, entering his fifth term in a country whose constitution apparently limits presidents to two.

The vote, the first since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, aimed to create a public mandate for war and restore Putin’s image as the embodiment of stability.

However, Russians are a little nervous about the changes the vote might bring.

Here are five highlights:

Although victory was a foregone conclusion, Putin’s numbers exceeded expectations.

There’s a pattern to presidential votes involving Putin: His results get better every time.

In 2012 he obtained 63.6% of the votes and in 2018, after the extension of the presidential mandate to six years, he obtained 76.7%.

Experts had expected the Kremlin to peg the result at around 80% this time, but Putin got an even higher percentage, closer to 90%, although the tally was not yet final.

Loyal opposition parties have just registered.

None of the other three candidates admitted to the vote obtained more than 5% of the votes.

Presidential votes in Russia have long served as a means to make the entire system appear legitimate.

But such a large margin of victory for Putin – who amended the constitution to allow him to remain in the Kremlin until 2036, when he will be 83 – risks undermining all this.

I could raise questions every time in the Kremlin more authoritarian about why Russia needs such an exercise of imagination.

The Kremlin did not quite achieve the image of national unity it sought.

Putin always seeks to project an image of political stability and control, which a carefully choreographed presidential election is designed to burnish.

But this time there were three events related to opposition politics that tarnished that image.

The first was in January, when thousands of Russians The whole country lined up to sign the petitions needed to obtain them Boris Nadezhdin, a previously low-profile politician who opposed the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin kept him out.

Then, Alexei NavalnyPutin’s staunchest political opponent, died suddenly in an Arctic prison in February.

Thousands of mourners attending his funeral in Moscow chanted against Putin and the war, and even during the vote, mourners continued to lay flowers on his grave.

The Navalny organization had supported the plan for a large voter turnout at midday, in a silent protest against Putin and the war.

Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya, who voted at the Russian embassy in Berlin, said she wrote her husband’s name on her ballot paper and thanked everyone who waited for her Long lines as part of the protest.

But it was difficult to see how the protest could translate into any kind of sustained movement, especially in the face of repressive measures that have grown increasingly harsh since Ukraine’s war began in February 2022.

Putin’s government, for example, arrested hundreds of people who publicly mourned Navalny.

Putin will ask for a popular mandate to continue the war in Ukraine.

Putin’s campaign, and the vote itself, were marked by war.

His announcement in December that he would seek another term came in response to a question from a war veteran who asked him to run.

The election symbol, a check mark in the blue, white and red colors of the Russian flag, resembled the V that is also sometimes used to show support for Russian soldiers.

The vote took place in the occupied regions of Ukraine, even though Russia does not fully control the four annexed regions.

There were elements of coercion and, at times, election workers carried ballot boxes into people’s homes accompanied by an armed soldier.

In the occupied regions, Putin’s margin of victory was even greater than in Russia itself.

Putin has never admitted that he started a war by invading Ukraine.

Rather, he says he was forced to mount a “special military operation” to prevent the West from using Ukraine as a weapon Trojan Horse weaken Russia.

He described electoral participation, above 74% of the over 112 million registered voters, as “due to the fact that we are forced, in the literal sense of the term, with weapons in our hands, to protect the interests of our citizens”. , our people.”

War will remain an organizing principle of the Kremlin.

In his annual address to the nation in February, which served as his main election speech, Putin promised butter and weapons, saying Russia could pursue its war goals even as it invests in the economy, infrastructure and long-standing goals as the strengthening of the Russian economy. . population.

According to government statistics, about 40% of government spending goes to military spending and the economy grew by 3.6% in 2023.

The production of ammunition and other materials is booming.

Putin also suggested that war veterans should form the core of a “new elite” to govern the country, because their service demonstrates their commitment to Russia’s best interests.

Such a proposal is expected to accelerate the tendency of public officials to express strong patriotism, especially as Putin seeks to replace his older allies with a younger generation.

The Russians are worried about what will happen next.

The period following any presidential election is one in which the Kremlin routinely introduces unpopular policies.

After 2018, for example, Putin raised the retirement age. Russians wonder whether a new military mobilization or greater internal repression could be around the corner.

Putin has repeatedly denied that another mobilization is necessary, but recent small territorial gains in eastern Ukraine are believed to have cost tens of thousands of casualties.

Even though Putin has hinted that he is ready to do so peace talks, So far neither side has shown much flexibility.

Russia has annexed more than 18% of Ukrainian territory and the battle lines have been static for months.

Any new Russian offensive is expected to take place during the hot, dry summer months, and the Russian military may seek to increase the amount of territory it controls ahead of any future negotiations.

“The decisions will more likely be about war than peace, more likely military than social or even economic,” said Ekaterina Schulmann, a Russian political scientist in exile in Berlin.

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