The Islamic State affiliate group linked to the Moscow attack has global ambitions

WASHINGTON — Five years ago this month, a U.S.-backed Kurdish and Arab militia drove Islamic State group fighters from a village in eastern Syria, the group’s last remaining sliver of territory.

Since then, the organization that once fueled a self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria has become a more traditional terrorist group: a clandestine network of cells from West Africa to Southeast Asia involved in guerrilla attacks, bombings and targeted killings.

None of the group’s affiliates have been as ruthless as the Islamic State of Khorasan, active in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and Iran and decided to attack Europe and beyond.

U.S. officials say the group carried out the attack near Moscow on Friday, killing dozens of people and wounding many others.

In JanuaryIslamic State-KhorasanOR ISIS-Kcarried out two bombings in Iran that killed dozens and injured hundreds more during a funeral ceremony for Iran’s former top general, Qassem Soleimani, which was the target of a US drone strike four years ago. Before.

“The threat from ISIS,” Avril Haines, director of national intelligence, told a Senate committee this month, “remains a significant counterterrorism concern.”

Most of the attacks “handled globally by ISIS have actually occurred in parts of ISIS outside of Afghanistan,” he said.

Gen. Michael Kurilla, head of the military’s Central Command, told a House committee Thursday that ISIS-K “remains in control ability and will attack American and Western interests abroad in just six months with little or no warning.”

American counterterrorism specialists rejected the Russia hypothesis on Sunday Ukraine was behind Friday’s attack near Moscow.

“The modus operandi was classic ISIS,” said Bruce Hoffman, a terrorism expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The attack was third place of concerts in the Northern Hemisphere that the Islamic State group has attacked over the past decade, Hoffman said, after an attack on the theater Bataclan in Paris in November 2015 (as part of a larger operation that attacked other targets in the city) and a suicide bombing during a concert Ariana Grande at the Manchester Arena, England, in May 2017.

The Islamic State-Khorasan, founded in 2015 by disgruntled members of the Pakistani Taliban, burst onto the international jihadist scene after the Taliban overthrew the Afghan government in 2021.

During the American military withdrawal from the country, ISIS-K carried out a suicide attack. inside kabul international airport in August 2021 that killed 13 U.S. service members and up to 170 civilians.

Since then, the Taliban have been fighting ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Until now, the security services of the Taliban they prevented the group from seizing territory or recruiting large numbers of former Taliban fighters, according to U.S. counterterrorism officials.

But the upward arc and scale of ISIS-K attacks have increased in recent years, with cross-border attacks Pakistan and a growing number of plots in Europe.

Most of these European plots were foiled, leading to Western intelligence assessments that the group may have reached the lethal limits of its capabilities.

In the month of July, Germany and the Netherlands Coordinated arrests against seven Tajik, Turkmen and Kyrgyz individuals linked to an ISIS-K network suspected of planning attacks in Germany.

Three men have been arrested in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia over alleged attack plans Cologne Cathedral on New Year’s Eve 2023.

The raids were linked to three other arrests in Austria and one in Germany on December 24. allegedly acting in support of ISIS-K.

Plots

U.S. and other Western counterterrorism officials say these plots were organized by low-level operatives who were detected and foiled relatively quickly.

“Until now, ISIS-Khorasan has relied primarily on inexperienced operatives in Europe to try to carry out attacks on its behalf,” Christine Abizaid, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, told a House committee in November.

but it’s there worrying signs that ISIS-K is learning from its mistakes.

In January, masked attackers attacked a Roman Catholic church Istanbul and they killed one person.

Shortly after, the Islamic State group, through its official Amaq news agency, claimed responsibility.

Turkish law enforcement officers were arrested 47 peoplemost of them citizens of Central Asia.

Since then, Turkish security forces have launched massive counter-operations against suspected Islamic State groups Türkiye, Syria and Iraq.

Several European investigations are shedding light on the global and interconnected nature of the Islamic State group’s finances, according to a January United Nations report, which identified Turkey as a logistical hub for ISIS-K operations in Europe.

The attacks on Moscow and Iran demonstrated greater sophistication, according to counter-terrorism officials, suggesting a higher level of planning and the ability to tap into local extremist networks.

“ISIS-K has been obsessed with Russia for the last two years,” often criticizing President Vladimir Putin in its propaganda, said Colin Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a New York-based security consultancy .

“ISIS-K accuses the Kremlin of having Muslim blood on its hands, referring to Moscow’s interventions in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria.”

A significant portion of ISIS-K members come from Origin of Central Asiaand there is a large contingent of Central Asians living and working in Russia.

Some of these individuals may have been radicalized and be able to play a logistical role, stockpiling weapons, Clarke said.

Daniel Byman, a counterterrorism specialist at Georgetown University, said that “ISIS-K has gathered fighters from Central Asia and the Caucasus under its protection and may be responsible for the attack on Moscow, directly or through their own networks”.

Apparently, the Russian and Iranian authorities they didn’t take it seriously enough the US’s more detailed public and private warnings of an impending ISIS-K attack conspiracy, or were distracted by other security challenges.

“In early March, the United States government shared information with Russia about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said Saturday.

“We also issued a public warning to Americans in Russia on March 7. ISIS is solely responsible for this attack. there was not Ukrainian participation absolutely”.

Arrests

Russian authorities announced Saturday the arrest of several suspects in Friday’s attack.

But senior US officials said Sunday they were still investigating the background of the attackers and trying to determine whether they were sent from South or Central Asia for this specific attack or were already in the country as part of the network of ISIS sympathizers. -K then engaged and encouraged.

Counterterrorism specialists expressed concern on Sunday about attacks in Moscow and Iran to encourage ISIS-K redoubles its efforts to attack in Europe, especially in Europe France, Belgium, Great Britain and other countries that have been attacked intermittently over the past decade.

The UN report, which uses a different name for Islamic State Khorasan, states that “some individuals of North Caucasian and Central Asian origin traveling from Afghanistan or Ukraine to Europe represent an opportunity for ISIL-K, which seeks to launch violent attacks.” the west.”

The report concluded that there was evidence of “current and unfinished operational plots on European soil led by ISIL-K.”

Senior Western intelligence official identified three main factors that could inspire ISIS-K operatives to attack: the existence of sleeper cells in Europe, images of the war between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, and support from Russian speakers living in Europe.

A major development this summer has many counterterrorism officials on edge.

“I’m worried Paris Olympic Games” said Edmund Fitton-Brown, a former senior U.N. counterterrorism official and now a senior adviser at the Counter-Extremism Project.

“They would be a prime target of terrorism.”

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