A “real threat”: the candidacy of a Kennedy nephew alarms Democrats in the United States

punished, Democrats declared war on Robert F. Kennedy Jr. considering it an obstacle on Joe Biden’s path to re-election.

According to polls, the scion of the most historic Democratic dynasty in the United States, known by the acronym RFK Jr, It hurts Biden more than Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Democrats learned to fear independents after George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 and Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016.

“Hyperpolarization is why a third-party candidate with a household name is a threat right now,” says Donald Nieman, a political scientist at Binghamton University in upstate New York.

“There are only six or seven states” In November they can really lean towards one or the other party and victory in some cases can only depend on 10,000 or 20,000 votes.

“So anything that repels a group of usually reliable voters could be a failure,” he says.

Kennedy’s popularity, around 10% in the pollsIt complicates the strategy of Biden’s campaign, which seeks to turn the November vote into an election between him and Trump.

Kennedy, an environmental lawyer, is known for his opposition to vaccines.

The son of former Democratic Attorney General “Bobby” Kennedy (assassinated in 1968) says he has gathered enough support to get on the ballot in six states in November.

Their goal is to obtain one million signatures to be able to appear in the 50 states of the country.

“Kennedy represents a real threat to Biden’s campaign in key swing states,” says Charlie Kolean, chief strategist at conservative political consultancy RED PAC.

“He is doing exceptionally well among independents and younger generations, groups who have traditionally voted for Biden,” he explains.

Democratic offensive

The Democrats then went on the offensive, with mobile billboards near the places where RFK Jr holds rallies and with lawsuits to keep it off the ballot.

But it’s unclear whether that will hurt them more than Trump.

In 1992, businessman Ross Perot won 19% of the vote.which perhaps cost Republican George Bush Sr. his re-election against Bill Clinton.

Kennedy’s conspiratorial views and his opposition to aid to Ukraine They made him a favorite of the Trumpist “Make America Great Again” movement, known by its acronym: MAGA.

But Trump rejected the idea that Kennedy could be another Perot.

“He is the political opponent of the corrupt Joe Biden, not mine. I like that he’s there,” Trump recently posted on his social media app.

Kennedy began his bid for the White House as a Democrat, but abandoned the primary campaign under pressure, he says, from Joe Biden’s allies.

Keith Nahigian, advisor to George Bush Sr. during the campaign in which he was defeated by Clinton in 1992, believes Biden made a “gigantic mistake” by alienating Kennedyinstead of defeating him in the primaries.

“I think they could lose the presidency because they didn’t think about the strategy at the beginning of this race,” he told AFP.

However, Nahigian, a veteran of six presidential campaigns, warns of the danger of seeing 2024 as another 1992, because Perot, a billionaire, managed to buy publicity that Kennedy cannot afford.

To remedy this, Kennedy chose as his running mate Nicole Shanahan, a former Democratic donor from California with many means.

Nahigian described Shanahan, a lawyer and philanthropist, as “far left” and is unlikely to attract votes from Trump supporters.

But he warned both Republicans and Democrats not to become complacent.

“Independent candidates have a huge impact in elections and it doesn’t matter if you’re a sitting president, if you’re a former president, you have to take it seriously,” Nahigian said.

AFP agency