A diplomatic dispute in Ecuador could improve the political situation of its president

Ecuador’s decision to send police officers to the Ecuadorian embassy Mexico Arresting a politician who had taken refuge there has fueled tensions between two countries already at odds, but which could turn out to be one blessing politics for the Ecuadorian president.

President Daniele Nobohas faced declining approval ratings due to rising violence weeks before a referendum that could jeopardize his re-election prospects next year.

The dispute with Mexico, which diplomatic relations suspendedit might be just what you needed.

The detained politician Jorge Glasformer vice president of Ecuador, he had been sentenced to prison for corruption and had been residing in the Mexican embassy in Quito since December.

Mexico granted him asylum on Friday and Ecuadorian police intervened.

Noboa’s office said the arrest was made because Mexico had abused the immunities and privileges granted to the diplomatic mission, but the message sent was also in line with hard focus of Noboa to address violence and corruption in Ecuador.

The 36-year-old center-right leader came to power in November following the presidency Guillermo Lassowho was facing an impeachment trial over embezzlement charges, called for early elections.

Noboa will remain in office until May 2025, which is the remainder of Lasso’s term.

Noboa’s ability to demonstrate that he can restore law and order to a nation of nearly 18 million people could prove crucial to his re-election, and that means tackling the country’s criminal gangs and the corruption within the government that allowed criminal groups, analysts say.

Many experts say these political aspirations appear to explain the embassy arrest, which signals that the president is tough on impunity.

“He did it to change all these negative conversation topics that were influencing him and try to have a conversation in his favor,” said Ecuadorian political analyst Agustín Burbano de Lara.

Glas held several ministerial positions during the presidency of the Raffaele Correaof the left, among which the vice president stands out.

In 2017 he was forced to resign and sentenced to six years in prison for accepting bribes.

Another corruption conviction in 2020 involved him and Correa, and both were sentenced to eight years.

Released in 2022, Glas eventually sought asylum in Mexico, a move that strained relations between Ecuador and Mexico.

Ecuador’s Foreign Ministry said in March that it had asked Mexico for permission to arrest Glas.

Even though Noboa is popular, polls show his approval ratings fell by 11 points in recent months, from 85% to 74%, in the context of growing violence in Ecuador.

After the coastal city of Guayaquil was overrun by gang violence in January, Noboa declared an internal conflict, an extraordinary measure taken when the state was attacked by an armed group.

He deployed the country’s army, allowing soldiers to patrol the streets and prisons to address growing gang violence linked to drug trafficking.

The aggressive response initially reduced violence and brought an uneasy sense of security to places like Guayaquil, but the stability did not last.

They were there during the Easter holidays 137 murders in Ecuador and kidnappings and extortion have worsened.

In two weeks, Ecuadorians will vote in a referendum to allow the government to increase security measures, toughening prison sentences for some crimes and mandating by law a greater military presence.

Experts say it is too early to say whether Glas’ arrest will benefit Noboa at the polls, but several Ecuadorians said Sunday they support the initiative.

“Mexico has treated Ecuadorians like fools, giving asylum to all these detainees,” said Danilo Álvarez, a 41-year-old salesman from Guayaquil, one of the country’s most violent cities.

Ecuador once granted asylum and protection in one of its embassies.

In 2012, when Correa was president, he did it for the founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assangehosting him in their embassy in London for seven years.

Alvarez said thieves broke into his home a few years ago, tied his hands and feet and put a gun to his head. Months passed before he could sleep well again, he said.

However, not all citizens agreed with the arrest.

“This was an act of total disrespect for international law,” said Delfa Mantilla, 62, a retired teacher.

“It appears that it was something President Noboa did as a result of his rich kid egowithout empathy.

Effects

Some worried about the effects the diplomatic dispute might have on ordinary people. Tens of thousands of Ecuadorians migrate through Mexico to the United States each year, and the two countries face a problem increase in transnational crimeal, with many Mexican cartels operating from Ecuador.

“Part of me thinks it’s OK, because Glas should go to prison,” said Mario Zalamar, a 34-year-old commercial engineer.

But, he said, “right now there are thousands of Ecuadorians walking across Mexico to migrate to the United States, and we don’t know how much this will affect them.”

Although many in Ecuador support the embassy shutdown, Noboa likely pursued the issue further diplomatic gap which can weaken its relations with other countries in the region.

Honduras, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina They demonstrated across Mexico and criticized the arrest.

and the government of Nicaragua announced it would suspend its diplomatic relations with Ecuador, calling the arrest “neo-fascist political barbarism” in a statement shared by state media.

The spokesperson of the United States Department of State, Matthew Millerstated: “The United States condemns any violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations and takes seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect the inviolability of diplomatic missions.”

Miller called on both countries to resolve their differences.

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