What worries me most about a Trump presidency

Almost every day there are headlines describing what Donald Trump would do if elected:

THE deportationIt is huge, forgive me granted to his friends and golfing buddies, and the regulation of scores and personal revenges at the Department of Justice.

The former president has even promised violence if the elections do not favor him, warning that there could be a “bloodbath”.

However, as troubling as these possibilities are, they are not even close to being the greatest threat posed by the former president.

What we should fear most is that Trump will turn our government into a Tammany Hall modern, where you install a kleptocratic leadership which will be difficult, if not impossible, to testify.

I do not rule out the possibility of state-sponsored violence and am deeply concerned about the politicization of the public service.

However, for the most part, these are threats and theories, and while they should be taken seriously, people should pay more attention to a much more likely reality:

that Trump will spend much of his time in office get rich.

He has failed spectacularly as an insurrectionist and a destroyer of public office, and his clownish, chaotic style could easily lead him to failure again… but he has triumphed time and again in the art of theft.

If his scam continues into a second term, it will not only help erode Americans’ trust in their institutions but also undermine our ability to lead the world through a series of increasingly serious crises.

Let’s remember how Trump behaved in his first term.

Not only did he maintain his stake in more than a hundred companies, but it became a practice to visit his properties across the country, forcing taxpayers to pay for rooms and services in Trump hotels for the Secret Service and other staffers who aided him . They accompanied, money that went directly to the former president’s bank accounts and those of his business associates.

Those interested in currying favor with the president, from foreign governments to potential government contractors, knew they had to do so spend money on your hotels and golf clubs.

According to internal Trump Hotel documents, T-Mobile executives spent more than $195,000 at the Trump International Hotel Washington DC after announcing a planned merger with Sprint in April 2018.

Two years later, the merger was approved.

Examples

Government, like fish, rots from the head.

Trump’s example allowed Cabinet members to award huge contracts to friends, business partners and political allies, while others ran their departments like personal fiefdoms.

After the dismissal of inspector general of the State Department, it came to light that the then Secretary of State, Mike Pompeoused official trips to hold clandestine meetings with conservative donors and that his family allegedly abused members of his staff for tasks such as walking the dog, picking up his wife at the airport and picking up his takeout.

And, in addition to being accused of improperly accepting gifts from people seeking influence, several other members of the government were accused of using public funds to undertake private trips.

These may seem trivial infractionsbut taken together, they reflect who Trump is and how he governs.

Over the course of his life, through Trump’s branding on wines, candy bars, sneakers, NFTs, ties, MAGA paraphernalia, a $59.99 Bible (how nervous), and, less recently, his stock agenda by meme Truth Social, the former president has demonstrated an unstoppable drive to get rich at all costs.

He sees politics, like business, as a zero-sum game in which Trump only wins if someone else loses.

These are the instincts that motivate corruption, kleptocracy and fraud.

And, if the past serves as a prologue, we are faced with a much more harmful sequel.

Future

In a second term, Trump will have more freedom and power to carry out scams.

He has already pledged to use pardons to protect his supporters and perhaps even himself from efforts to curb corruption (which may explain the indifference with which his son-in-law Jared Kushner has received criticism for conflicts of interest generated by its recent real estate investments in Serbia and Albania, as well as Saudi, Qatari and Emirati investments in its private equity fund).

Furthermore, he and his political advisors are assembling a group of committed and loyal employees who could corrode and potentially destroy accountability mechanisms in government, paving the way for kleptocratic leaders to entrench themselves in the bureaucracy, where many could remain beyond Trump’s term .

And the mere presence of a phalanx of valiant lieutenants in public office will cause other public officials to fear facing retaliation for opposing self-enrichment.

Of course I worry about other things too, particularly the possibility of political violence.

Trump may well claim that he won the election regardless of the vote count and ask his supporters to stand up to ensure his victory.

Even before the vote, his supporters are already threatening election and judicial officials, as well as state legislators, trying to intimidate them into helping Trump or stepping aside and being replaced by Trumpists.

However, legal, police and security obstacles still exist to slow or stop these maneuvers.

We must remember the president this time Joe Biden will still be the president, able to control the federal military and law enforcement, and Congress has amended the outdated and vague Electoral Count Reform Act to make it much harder for Trump’s allies in Congress to contest a loss of Trump in the Electoral College. or at the Capitol.

No such restrictions exist to stop Trumpian corruption.

The Supreme Court, itself corrupt, has made it virtually impossible to prosecute even the most serious corruption by government officials.

In a kleptocracy, corruption is a characteristic, not a flaw, because in it politicians apply the law inconsistently, favoring friends and punishing enemies.

By controlling government assets and distributing them to friends and family – as well as offering opportunities to potential sympathizers – and using politically motivated prosecutions, kleptocrats consolidate their control over the government and render their opponents powerless.

Just remember Russia’s efforts to create a democracy: money was quickly funneled into the pockets of Russians Vladimir Putin and their oligarchs, which led to the desperation and compliance of Russian citizens when they realized that they could no longer change their situation by democratic means.

Now let’s face this danger at home.

If Trump wins, the United States will have a leader interested only in his own personal power, both financial and punitive, and who will have the support of a much more capable team.

When lucrative contracts are awarded to Trump loyalists without regard to merit and dissenting voices are persecuted and silenced, andleadership of the United States on the world stage will dissolve when it is needed most.

The consequences will reverberate for generations if we do not have the ability or will to address problems such as climate change, mass migration, a new space race and various wars.

Nothing significant will be done, Trump’s friends will continue to act with impunity, and millions of Americans – already worried that elites will be judged by different standards than ordinary citizens – will further lose faith in their government, convinced that everyone in Washington is acting . alone.

This combination of passivity on the one hand and impunity on the other could be fatal to our democracy.

This is the real danger posed by Trump.

c.2024 The New York Times Company